Musk endeavours

[dspp]

John Engle’s views on the future for Tesla may not be right but his comments on the current situation look sound.

Howard

His comments look anything but sound as they are contradicted by the data :

TSLA's 2019 BEV share was 22.5% becoming 23.3% in 2020.
TSLA's 2019 BEV+PHEV share was 16.6% becoming 16.0% in 2020.

He is just writing highly selective clickbait by using monthly data that is very distorted by TSLA's oceanic-shipping allocations.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

Fun fact:

There are more Trabants on German roads today than there are Teslas according to the source below.

regards

Howard

https://twitter.com/fly4dat/status/1369080615459561476

Fabulous opportunity for the Chinese low cost makers to replace these polluting cars with modern efficient and low cost alternatives.

Regards,

[Howard]

John Engle’s views on the future for Tesla may not be right but his comments on the current situation look sound.

Howard

His comments look anything but sound as they are contradicted by the data :

TSLA's 2019 BEV share was 22.5% becoming 23.3% in 2020.
TSLA's 2019 BEV+PHEV share was 16.6% becoming 16.0% in 2020.

He is just writing highly selective clickbait by using monthly data that is very distorted by TSLA's oceanic-shipping allocations.

regards, dspp

Not disagreeing but weren't his comments, above, true for Tesla's three major markets? I think you are quoting Tesla's worldwide shares. The problem in looking at worldwide is that this might take too much account of occasional surges of sales in very small markets in far-flung countries and neglecting a massive fast growing market. For example neglecting Europe before opening a plant, might not be the most profitable strategy long term?

And come on . This thread is chock-full of references to clickbait and tittle tattle.

regards

Howard
(occasional purveyor of high-class clickbait)

[Howard]

Fun fact:

There are more Trabants on German roads today than there are Teslas according to the source below.

regards

Howard

https://twitter.com/fly4dat/status/1369080615459561476

Fabulous opportunity for the Chinese low cost makers to replace these polluting cars with modern efficient and low cost alternatives.

Regards,

Have you missed the point?

Your argument is a bit like suggesting that Tesla has a fabulous sales opportunity in replacing all those expensive wheezing vintage cars on the London to Brighton rally.

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Have you missed the point?

Your argument is a bit like suggesting that Tesla has a fabulous sales opportunity in replacing all those expensive wheezing vintage cars on the London to Brighton rally.

Howard

Trabant users fit into two camps, the enthusiast who wants a piece of the past and the poor guy who has nothing better.

In all technology, save for disasters, the natural cycle is that poor folk hold on to what they have until something better comes that they can afford.

I am pointing out that something better is now the low cost Chinese BEV that are becoming affordable and which offer a substantial gain for the buyer: Cheaper fuel, better carrying capacity, safer,...

I drove through East Germany and Poland when folk only had Trabants and revisited later after the Wall came down and I did not see folk with the opportunity not buying more modern cars and that cycle is now extending to the people at the bottom of society who can now get something new, modern and efficient at a price they can begin to afford.

Regards,

[Howard]

Have you missed the point?

Your argument is a bit like suggesting that Tesla has a fabulous sales opportunity in replacing all those expensive wheezing vintage cars on the London to Brighton rally.

Howard

Trabant users fit into two camps, the enthusiast who wants a piece of the past and the poor guy who has nothing better.

In all technology, save for disasters, the natural cycle is that poor folk hold on to what they have until something better comes that they can afford.

I am pointing out that something better is now the low cost Chinese BEV that are becoming affordable and which offer a substantial gain for the buyer: Cheaper fuel, better carrying capacity, safer,...

I drove through East Germany and Poland when folk only had Trabants and revisited later after the Wall came down and I did not see folk with the opportunity not buying more modern cars and that cycle is now extending to the people at the bottom of society who can now get something new, modern and efficient at a price they can begin to afford.

Regards,

You are still missing the point.

What replacement Chinese made cars would you recommend for Trabant owners? Fairly typical enthusiasts. They wouldn't take kindly to being called "poor folk". And they can probably all afford Teslas.

“I really love the smell and sound of Trabis,” says Florian Vogel, a 28-year-old from Kaiserslautern, Germany, who also says its simplicity of upkeep is a major selling point. “It’s so easy to maintain,” he says. The Trabi has an especially potent exhaust smell that’s a 50:1 mix of gasoline and two-stroke oil, and its engine makes a vroom vroom noise. Vogel currently owns four of the cars—a 1984 white and a 1989 blue sedan, each with the original two-stroke engine, and two 1991 station wagons with four-stroke VW Polo engines.

"There’s also Sebastian Sonntag, 37, a Dresden native whose family left East Germany for Felsberg immediately after the Wall fell. Today he and his brother have five Trabants between them, including a silver ‘89 Trabant that Sonntag has named Foxe, and which he has completely rebuilt and refinished."

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/t ... st-germany

Ody, you could set an example to these petrol heads and replace your horrible polluting old diesel with a bright shiny new Chinese BEV? Perhaps an MG at only £25,500 with a range of 163 miles (or 231 driven carefully) see link below. If this is too posh, perhaps an electric van?

regards

Howard

https://mg.co.uk/mg-zs-electric/

[odysseus2000]

Ody, you could set an example to these petrol heads and replace your horrible polluting old diesel with a bright shiny new Chinese BEV? Perhaps an MG at only £25,500 with a range of 163 miles (or 231 driven carefully) see link below. If this is too posh, perhaps an electric van?

regards

Howard

If I was going to go BEV I would likely get a model Y with full self driving, probably in Oxford Blue or similar and dark interior or a Cyber truck.

This would break my long cultivated image of being impecunious, but that in itself could be fun.

I would certainly have no interest in buying a me too, make up the numbers, second rate VW, Hyundai or Chinese.

Regards,

[GrahamPlatt]

The World Tonight, R4, just now (~37mins into program)
Referring to Germany; “There are more Trabants than Teslas on the road”

[BobbyD]

January global sales, 2020 vs 2021

He is just writing highly selective clickbait by using monthly data that is very distorted by TSLA's oceanic-shipping allocations.

[BobbyD]

VW plans to make Cupra all-electric; turn Seat's Spanish factory into EV hub

...The conversion of the plant could also involve battery-cell production in Spain, Diess said.

"Our plans are bold: Conversion of Martorell into a fully electric car plant. Local cell production in Spain, build up of infrastructure for fast charging and green energy," he wrote.

The project depends on support from the European Commission, he said. "We need the Commission’s support to make it happen," Diess said.

- https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/ ... ory-ev-hub

For a sense of scale, Martorell produced 500,000 cars in 2019.

Elsewhere:

Spain to use EU funds for electric-car battery plant with SEAT, Iberdrola

MADRID (Reuters) - Spain will use European Union funds to create a public-private consortium with VW’s Spanish unit SEAT and power company Iberdrola to build the country’s first factory for electric-car batteries, the industry minister said.

- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto ... SKBN2AW1FY

[dspp]

John Engle’s views on the future for Tesla may not be right but his comments on the current situation look sound.

Howard

His comments look anything but sound as they are contradicted by the data :

TSLA's 2019 BEV share was 22.5% becoming 23.3% in 2020.
TSLA's 2019 BEV+PHEV share was 16.6% becoming 16.0% in 2020.

He is just writing highly selective clickbait by using monthly data that is very distorted by TSLA's oceanic-shipping allocations.

regards, dspp

Not disagreeing but weren't his comments, above, true for Tesla's three major markets? I think you are quoting Tesla's worldwide shares. The problem in looking at worldwide is that this might take too much account of occasional surges of sales in very small markets in far-flung countries and neglecting a massive fast growing market. For example neglecting Europe before opening a plant, might not be the most profitable strategy long term?

And come on . This thread is chock-full of references to clickbait and tittle tattle.

regards

Howard
(occasional purveyor of high-class clickbait)

It seems that the market in China can currently take as much as can be produced, at least that is my takeway from this Y sales info where the Tesla sales do not appear to be causing Nio and Xpeng sales to slow.

"In January, Tesla launched the Model Y in China at an updated price, which now starts at 339,900 yuan ($52,000) for the Long Range Dual Motor version, and the Model Y Performance version will start at 369,900 yuan ($56,600).

The automaker delivered just over 1,600 Model Y electric SUVs in China in January. Now we learn that Tesla was quickly able to ramp up production and deliveries of the Model Y in China with 4,630 Model Y deliveries in February.

This is particularly impressive considering Tesla’s operations in February were limited by the Lunar New Year in China. Tesla is seen catching up to its main Chinese rivals, NIO and Xpeng, which primarily sell electric vehicles in the same segment as the Model Y. NIO delivered 5,578 units and Xpeng 2,223 units during the same period."

https://electrek.co/2021/03/10/tesla-mo ... eng-china/

So for now it is mostly BEV vs ICE and BEV vs PHEV competition. Longer term it may become BEV vs BEV competition but not yet. I know how long it took for one of my family members to get hold of the BEV they wanted, here in the UK so supply is still the limiting factor. It really is all about the battery (cell) supply availability.

regards, dspp

[dspp]

More from the UBS id3 strip report, https://www.electrive.com/2021/03/04/ub ... yzes-id-3/

"UBS analysts have disassembled a VW ID.3 and come to the conclusion that the MEB platform is “fully competitive” with Tesla in terms of cost. VW achieves “first-class energy density, efficiency and scalability”. That being said, when it comes to the battery and its costs, Tesla remains ahead.

According to the UBS experts, VW has a cost disadvantage of 1,300 US dollars per car (currently 1,078 euros) compared to Tesla when it comes to batteries and it is “unlikely” that this gap can be closed in view of Tesla’s vertical integration and innovative strength. For the disassembly of the ID.3 and the subsequent analysis, the major Swiss bank worked with the electric car experts of the P3 Group.

In terms of the costs for the production of the vehicles and the important margin in sales, VW could reach parity by 2025, according to the analysis. In other words from then on, VW would earn as much on the sale of an ID.3 as on a Golf.

VW’s software platform and ecosystem are top-notch compared to most classic OEMs, but are “years behind Tesla”. The LG battery cells used in the VW ID.3 cost around $100 per kilowatt-hour (€83/kWh), putting them in the top 3 worldwide, along with CATL and Tesla.

Although an ID.3 was disassembled for the analysis, UBS says it expects to be able to transfer the results to other vehicles based on the MEB. Since a Model 3 was already disassembled two years ago, UBS considers its figures on the price difference for the batteries to be reliable. Based on this experience, the experts dare to predict that the advantage in battery costs with the structural battery packs in the Model Y with the 4680 cells could bring Tesla’s cost advantage back up to 2,000 dollars (1,659 euros) per vehicle."

Using the TSLA Q4 2020 numbers average price per vehicle is $59k and average cost per vehicle is $48k (I am throwing all energy sales & revenue in the pot for simplicity) for GM of $11k and a 19% GM%. An average model 3 will be lower than that as the Y, S, X costs and prices will raise the fleet average. So lets take a SWAG and say that an average 3 maintains the same GM% of 19% but a price of $42k and a cost of $34k for a GM of $8k.

I am unclear from what is written if the id3 is equal cost with the 3, or would be equal cost except for the $1300 / $2000 battery cost penalty. The "fully competitive" bit is somewhat misleading 1! Let's assume that VAG is not actually "fully competitive" but is instead "nearly fully competitive" and this would give an equivalent VAG product the same price of $42k, a cost (now) of $35.3k and a GM of $6.7k for a GM% of 16%.

So the 'now' position is a VAG GM% of 16% and a TSLA GM% of 19%.

Fast forward a year and UBS and TSLA both expect that TSLA will be adopting the 4680 cells and decreasing costs by a further $700. I would hazard a guess that TSLA costs will go down a lot more than that due to the front & rear castings, and due to increased localisation (no shipping to EU, no import duties - gotta be worth 10-15% GM alone in EU, or say 5% on the global blend). But let's be somewhat conservative and just make that $1000 reduction. TSLA's past form is to lower price as costs reduce so TSLA would then be at:

cost = $33k; price = $41k; GM = 8k; GM% = 19%

VAG would need to follow and their situation would become:

cost = $35.3k; price = $41k; GM = 5.7k; GM% = 14%

It is worth bearing in mind that VAG is in the best position of all the legacy car manufacturers.

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

There are some wild numbers on battery costs. Cairn energy advisers estimate the Tesla cost are $142 kWh, but it is unclear what this refers to: cells, pack...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery ... rn-report/

The report is covered in Tesla daily (12mins 18):

https://youtu.be/s0s868tJ5ZM

where the reported $100 per kWh noted by Tesla in 2018 is discussed and compared to these figures with all the raw ingredients being down since 2018, save for Nickel which isn't up much. If Tesla are producing lots of Fe-phosphate then the Nickel cost for these is zero.

Cairn also note that GM rather than VW is the main battery competitor to Tesla, but then goes on to note that GM scale isn't in the ball park to Tesla.

Hard not to conclude that Cairn are challenged in their understanding of BEV.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Actual, genuine delays, prepare opprobrium canons.

Tesla delays new Model S Plaid Plus orders to ‘mid-2022’

Unlike the other versions of the refresh Model S, the Plaid Plus version is going to be equipped with Tesla’s new 4680 battery cell and structural battery pack architecture.

- https://electrek.co/2021/03/11/tesla-de ... -mid-2022/

[dspp]

Actual, genuine delays, prepare opprobrium canons.

Tesla delays new Model S Plaid Plus orders to ‘mid-2022’

Unlike the other versions of the refresh Model S, the Plaid Plus version is going to be equipped with Tesla’s new 4680 battery cell and structural battery pack architecture.

- https://electrek.co/2021/03/11/tesla-de ... -mid-2022/

Er not quite so fast. It seems they are saying that if you order now it will be quite a while before you take delivery. That indicates an order book that is massively full, i.e. success not failure. That is why they decided to put the price up by $10k as well. There are no delays being reported by those who have already ordered, at least not yet.

regards, dspp

[dspp]

There are some wild numbers on battery costs. Cairn energy advisers estimate the Tesla cost are $142 kWh, but it is unclear what this refers to: cells, pack...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery ... rn-report/

The report is covered in Tesla daily (12mins 18):

https://youtu.be/s0s868tJ5ZM

where the reported $100 per kWh noted by Tesla in 2018 is discussed and compared to these figures with all the raw ingredients being down since 2018, save for Nickel which isn't up much. If Tesla are producing lots of Fe-phosphate then the Nickel cost for these is zero.

Cairn also note that GM rather than VW is the main battery competitor to Tesla, but then goes on to note that GM scale isn't in the ball park to Tesla.

Hard not to conclude that Cairn are challenged in their understanding of BEV.

Regards,

Yes ody, I tend to agree that there is some very odd numbers coming out of this lot that are not consistent with what comes from elsewhere.

This may be of interest to some viewtopic.php?p=394857#p394857

A lot appears to be staked on the $700 barrier for Friday close !

regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

This may be of interest to some viewtopic.php?p=394857#p394857

A lot appears to be staked on the $700 barrier for Friday close !

regards, dspp

I would like to get some steer on how strongly is the push to Fe-phosphate chemistry.

The numbers I looked at earlier didn't suggest to me that the Fe electrode chemistry could compete with the current Nickel electrode in terms of energy density and available space, but if the move to a battery integrated into the body happens will this lead to more space for more Fe electrode chemistry batteries such that the more exotic elements can be scaled down or out altogether.

Tesla may consider this kind of information too commercially sensitive to release, but if there is any possibility to get acceptable range with Fe electrodes the whole battery scene changes and there are hints that this may be the case with the use of Fe electrodes in the lower range model 3.

Regarding the share price a lot depends on the early reviews when the latest self driving beta reaches more cars. The potential earnings if Tesla can deploy robotic-taxi are significantly above what the analysts have pencilled in. The mood music from Cathy Wood is that their latest Tesla report (not yet published) will included updated estimates for their expectations of earnings from self drivings. Still all of these estimates are moon shine unless Tesla can demonstrate that robo-taxis work.

Regards,

[dspp]

This may be of interest to some viewtopic.php?p=394857#p394857

A lot appears to be staked on the $700 barrier for Friday close !

regards, dspp

I would like to get some steer on how strongly is the push to Fe-phosphate chemistry.

The numbers I looked at earlier didn't suggest to me that the Fe electrode chemistry could compete with the current Nickel electrode in terms of energy density and available space, but if the move to a battery integrated into the body happens will this lead to more space for more Fe electrode chemistry batteries such that the more exotic elements can be scaled down or out altogether.

Tesla may consider this kind of information too commercially sensitive to release, but if there is any possibility to get acceptable range with Fe electrodes the whole battery scene changes and there are hints that this may be the case with the use of Fe electrodes in the lower range model 3.

Regarding the share price a lot depends on the early reviews when the latest self driving beta reaches more cars. The potential earnings if Tesla can deploy robotic-taxi are significantly above what the analysts have pencilled in. The mood music from Cathy Wood is that their latest Tesla report (not yet published) will included updated estimates for their expectations of earnings from self drivings. Still all of these estimates are moon shine unless Tesla can demonstrate that robo-taxis work.

Regards,

Eying up the Adamas H2 2020 report it looks to me as if LFP took about 5-7% of the global market with everything else being various nickel flavours except for an absolute smidge of NiMH. It goes on to say lithium use is increasing "coupled with the resurrection of the nickel- and cobalt-devoid LFP cathode chemistry in China, which uses more lithium per kWh than high-nickel alternatives, such as NCM 8-series and NCA, for example." and that statement coupled with all the anecdote we are hearing both about LFP adoption and of nickel scarcity leads me to think that LFP growth rates must be extremely high. Searching that I find "Deployment (in watt hours) of LFP cells increased more than six-fold in 2020 H2 versus 2019 H2, contributing to a boost in the sales-weighted average amount of lithium used per EV." so my suspicion seems to be correct.

LFP can't compete with nickel at present. However if nickel is scarce it will be reserved for the higher end models & products and LFP will have to suffice for the lower end models and products. Indeed that appears to be the nascent trend, and then of course R&D focus and volume will improve performance if they get performance above a certain tipping point. That jury is out.

My personal opinion is that cells will always be integrated into slab-like structures set low down in the vehicle, and that it is unlikely that cell types and cell form-factors will be mixed in a vehicle. Those structures may obtain physical performance benefits (torsional rigidity) from that integration. That means that one should not expect to see cells integrated into body pillars, bulkheads, roofs - in cars only the floor is realistically available imho.

There is a lot of hints that FSD beta will get a significant increase in volume-release at the next .x release. Something of the order of going from ~2,000 to ~100,000 or thereabouts. That indicates that a) the unmanaged edge-case encounter rate must be down a heck of a lot and/or b) the ability of Dojo (or the interim trainer) to absorb field-edge-case-data has dramatically increased; and I suspect both.

Similarly there are a lot of hints that Semi could start showing up in the Q2 21 sales, probably using Panasonic cells though that is even more shrouded in mystery right now. I think they are reserving Kato Rd 4680 for Berlin at present and July is not that far away.

I don't see robotaxi the way you do. For me that is not something I ascribe any value to in the next 5-years. Cathie's views on that and mine diverge greatly, but that doesn't necessarily mean I am wrong !

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

Tesla has been on fire this week

According to the Fremont fire department, “The deep-seated fire was contained to a vehicle manufacturing stamping machine.” City firefighters coordinated with Tesla’s internal brigade, the Tesla Fire Response Team, to contain the fire within a few hours.

- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/12/fire-br ... ornia.html

[odysseus2000]

Skotty Kilmer, the mechanic who hates Tesla, drives a model 3 & doesn't find much to complain about (10:02 minutes):

https://youtu.be/_0Bdw1rrcwQ

Regards,