Musk endeavours

[odysseus2000]

I'm a bit wary of surveys like this for a couple of reasons.....

It's for cars up to 5 years old, so a car that was only introduced last year might be expected to exhibit fewer problems than a 5-year-old car

I always have the feeling (perhaps with no justification) that there is a degree of Musk hero-worship among Tesla owners. "Look at me, I'm leading the way with a Tesla". I wonder if Tesla owners might under-report problems to help justify their purchase and show that they have a market-leading car, rather than face reality?

Maybe I'm wrong

--kiloran

Yes, there is some potential truth in this, but there are also a lot of ICE makers who want to keep ICE going for as long as possible and they go out of their way to encourage negative reports on Tesla.

Until this survey many of the reports on Tesla cars have been negative citing build quality, unreliability etc.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

I'm certainly the wrong person to ask for advice in how to trade high risk shares. Good luck with moving out.

I had thought it was just you and I here on TLF that had substantial TSLA exposure ? Are there any others ?

regards, dspp

I have no idea, but there are often guests viewing the page and perhaps some of them have positions.

My comments were more of an "incase", rather than directed to anyone or any group as I have no idea who views this.

Regards,

[Howard]

I'm a bit wary of surveys like this for a couple of reasons.....

It's for cars up to 5 years old, so a car that was only introduced last year might be expected to exhibit fewer problems than a 5-year-old car

I always have the feeling (perhaps with no justification) that there is a degree of Musk hero-worship among Tesla owners. "Look at me, I'm leading the way with a Tesla". I wonder if Tesla owners might under-report problems to help justify their purchase and show that they have a market-leading car, rather than face reality?

Maybe I'm wrong

--kiloran

Yes, there is some potential truth in this, but there are also a lot of ICE makers who want to keep ICE going for as long as possible and they go out of their way to encourage negative reports on Tesla.

Until this survey many of the reports on Tesla cars have been negative citing build quality, unreliability etc.

Regards,

Sorry to put a damper on the Tesla reliability story but this month’s “Which” magazine reported on car reliability and the experience of 297 members who drove a Tesla. The brand came bottom. Only Land Rover was worse. Owners reported high fault rates and long garage stays.

To be fair, BMW standards slipped a bit and (like Mercedes, VW and Porsche) owners reported more faults than for the near perfect records of Lexus, Toyota, Honda and Mini. The sample size for the major German brands was around 2-3,000 members and their ratings were much better than Tesla.
“Which” have been asking their members about reliability for a long time and they have found that for years, petrol hybrids have been the most reliable cars you can buy in the UK. They actually asked Toyota why. The answer from Toyota was that the hybrid system is mechanically very simple, with fewer moving parts than a non-hybrid. And the electric motor helps the petrol motor rev less. The complicated bit is the power inverter and power control software.

"Which" accept that hybrids are doomed by 2035 or earlier.

“Which” report that BEV cars should be more reliable but Tesla have the worst EV reliability. Of the Tesla Model 3 owners reporting, 26% had at least one problem that had to be fixed by a mechanic. Given the age of the car that’s incredibly high. A number of owners reported problems with rainwater seals. Finally 3% of owners of Model 3s had already seen their car break down.

I know that this type of report won’t go down well on this thread. But it’s the real world! And “Which” and Toyota know a bit more about the reliability of hybrid cars than engineers who are happy to drive old cars.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Howard
The answer from Toyota was that the hybrid system is mechanically very simple, with fewer moving parts than a non-hybrid. And the electric motor helps the petrol motor rev less. The complicated bit is the power inverter and power control software.

I had a giant guffaw at this piece of marketing.

So we have two surveys, one says Tesla are the best, the other that Tesla are among the worst.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Interesting price action in Tesla, the early weakness was reversed and the shares ended up nearly 3% on the day.

I bought back some of the shares that I sold.

Regards,

[TUK020]

Sorry to put a damper on the Tesla reliability story but this month’s “Which” magazine reported on car reliability and the experience of 297 members who drove a Tesla. The brand came bottom. Only Land Rover was worse. Owners reported high fault rates and long garage stays.

To be fair, BMW standards slipped a bit and (like Mercedes, VW and Porsche) owners reported more faults than for the near perfect records of Lexus, Toyota, Honda and Mini. The sample size for the major German brands was around 2-3,000 members and their ratings were much better than Tesla.
“Which” have been asking their members about reliability for a long time and they have found that for years, petrol hybrids have been the most reliable cars you can buy in the UK. They actually asked Toyota why. The answer from Toyota was that the hybrid system is mechanically very simple, with fewer moving parts than a non-hybrid. And the electric motor helps the petrol motor rev less. The complicated bit is the power inverter and power control software.

"Which" accept that hybrids are doomed by 2035 or earlier.

“Which” report that BEV cars should be more reliable but Tesla have the worst EV reliability. Of the Tesla Model 3 owners reporting, 26% had at least one problem that had to be fixed by a mechanic. Given the age of the car that’s incredibly high. A number of owners reported problems with rainwater seals. Finally 3% of owners of Model 3s had already seen their car break down.

I know that this type of report won’t go down well on this thread. But it’s the real world! And “Which” and Toyota know a bit more about the reliability of hybrid cars than engineers who are happy to drive old cars.

regards

Howard

I have read the same report, and one of the snippets was that the leading Lexus hybrid model, they couldn't find anyone reporting a fault, the first time this has happened.
Some brands figured rather high in the "Should be recalled" list, e.g. Landrover.
We have used previous versions of this report to guide our purchases, which is why we have 4 second hand Toyotas parked outside. The newest is a hybrid, the oldest a 15 year old diesel with 230k miles on the clock.
Based on this report, conducted by an independent and reputable consumer survey firm, I wouldn't touch a Tesla with a bargepole until they have learnt how to build cars.

[odysseus2000]

TUK020
I have read the same report, and one of the snippets was that the leading Lexus hybrid model, they couldn't find anyone reporting a fault, the first time this has happened.
Some brands figured rather high in the "Should be recalled" list, e.g. Landrover.
We have used previous versions of this report to guide our purchases, which is why we have 4 second hand Toyotas parked outside. The newest is a hybrid, the oldest a 15 year old diesel with 230k miles on the clock.
Based on this report, conducted by an independent and reputable consumer survey firm, I wouldn't touch a Tesla with a bargepole until they have learnt how to build cars.

Yes, but what % of the population thinks like this?

Toyoya, sold about 105,000 cars in 2019:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/300 ... d-kingdom/

There were 2.31 million new cars sold:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/car ... years.html

So perhaps 0.1/2.3 = 4.3%, which leaves a lot of folk who don't buy Toyota.

Regards,

[dspp]

TSLA not included in S&P500 reshuffle

Tesla (TSLA) has been excluded from the latest S&P500 reshuffle despite being worth 9 times more than all 3 new companies being included in the index combined.... There are a few basic eligibility requirements, like consecutive quarterly profit and high revenue. Despite hitting those requirements, Tesla wasn’t included in a reshuffle that was announced today by the S&P..
https://electrek.co/2020/09/04/tesla-ts ... reshuffle/

Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker was widely expected to be added to the prestigious benchmark after it posted a fourth consecutive quarterly profit in July, clearing the last major hurdle for consideration by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the gauge. Some,...said the move might be announced Friday in order for the stock to begin trading as an S&P component this month, ..... Instead, online retailer Etsy Inc., semiconductor equipment manufacturer Teradyne Inc. and medical technology firm Catalent Inc. were added, replacing H&R Block Inc., Coty Inc. and Kohl’s Corp..... S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the index, rebalances it on a quarterly basis, but its components can shift more frequently, spokesman Ray McConville said by phone on Friday. “The index committee can make a change to the index at any time,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aterialize

- dspp

[Howard]

For anyone interested.

I have sold most of my Tesla shares.

I'm certainly the wrong person to ask for advice in how to trade high risk shares. Good luck with moving out.

I had thought it was just you and I here on TLF that had substantial TSLA exposure ? Are there any others ?

regards, dspp

A lot of us have ITs managed by Baillie Gifford. They led the sales earlier this week. They appear to have made a modest $17 billion (for us shareholders ?) from the rise in Tesla's shares and are still the biggest investors.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bail ... -tchvr8vrr

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

A lot of us have ITs managed by Baillie Gifford. They led the sales earlier this week. They appear to have made a modest $17 billion (for us shareholders ?) from the rise in Tesla's shares and are still the biggest investors.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bail ... -tchvr8vrr

regards

Howard

How many shareholders does Ballie Gifford have?

How does the $17 billion gain compare to other investments?

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

TSLA not included in S&P500 reshuffle

Tesla (TSLA) has been excluded from the latest S&P500 reshuffle despite being worth 9 times more than all 3 new companies being included in the index combined.... There are a few basic eligibility requirements, like consecutive quarterly profit and high revenue. Despite hitting those requirements, Tesla wasn’t included in a reshuffle that was announced today by the S&P..
https://electrek.co/2020/09/04/tesla-ts ... reshuffle/

Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker was widely expected to be added to the prestigious benchmark after it posted a fourth consecutive quarterly profit in July, clearing the last major hurdle for consideration by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the gauge. Some,...said the move might be announced Friday in order for the stock to begin trading as an S&P component this month, ..... Instead, online retailer Etsy Inc., semiconductor equipment manufacturer Teradyne Inc. and medical technology firm Catalent Inc. were added, replacing H&R Block Inc., Coty Inc. and Kohl’s Corp..... S&P Dow Jones Indices, which oversees the index, rebalances it on a quarterly basis, but its components can shift more frequently, spokesman Ray McConville said by phone on Friday. “The index committee can make a change to the index at any time,” he said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... aterialize

- dspp

Another potential price moving uncertainty!

Maybe the Dow Jones Industrial average will make Tesla 1/30th of the index.

Regards,

[Howard]

A lot of us have ITs managed by Baillie Gifford. They led the sales earlier this week. They appear to have made a modest $17 billion (for us shareholders ?) from the rise in Tesla's shares and are still the biggest investors.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bail ... -tchvr8vrr

regards

Howard

How many shareholders does Ballie Gifford have?

How does the $17 billion gain compare to other investments?

Regards,

I think BG has around 17 shareholders. I haven't met them all.

We see the gain as small beer compared with our other investments.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Kind of interesting that I have a somewhat similar approach to equities as does Ballie Gifford who have done well out of Tesla and who focus on secular growth as I do:

https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/ne ... t/a1387830

It has been interesting to see how well many of the talking heads on shows like Fast Money in the US have done. There approach has been valuation focused with several openly hostile to Tesla & prefering Ford & GM. Well paid people not making their investors any money, interesting world.

Regards,

[Howard]

Howard
The answer from Toyota was that the hybrid system is mechanically very simple, with fewer moving parts than a non-hybrid. And the electric motor helps the petrol motor rev less. The complicated bit is the power inverter and power control software.

I had a giant guffaw at this piece of marketing.

So we have two surveys, one says Tesla are the best, the other that Tesla are among the worst.

Regards,

I had to smile too when I read the "What Car" survey you say rated Tesla highly.

Did you read it?

Or did you just quote Teslarati who are obviously totally biased?

The Model 3 does get a decent review. (Although the magazine includes the comment "I've had none of the build quality issues of the earlier models" which acknowledges the poor quality of the early cars).

But did you read how bad the results were for the Model S over the last five years?

What Car agree with Which that Tesla's have really bad reliability.

Here's a quote from the survey:

Least reliable electric cars: 1. Tesla Model S (2014-present)

What went wrong? Bodywork 28%, non-motor electrics 22%, interior trim 11%, brakes 6%, motor electrics 6%, suspension 6%

The Model S suffered the highest percentage of faults in our entire survey, with 61% of the cars we were told about having a problem.

The worst model in the "entire survey" was the Tesla Model S!

regards

Howard

Worth reading to the end https://www.whatcar.com/news/2020-what- ... ars/n21867

[odysseus2000]

Hi Howard,

I have to admire your Infantry like persistence in calling out everything wrong that you can find with Tesla cars while at the same time warming your self on the money made by the Generals at Ballie Gifford.

Maybe you need to think more like a General, abandon your rifle, climb out of your trench and survey the whole battlefield with the artillery and air support of the Generals to guide and instruct you on the import battlefield business of making money.

For a very long time you have had this dichotomy in your mind of everything being wrong with Tesla Motors while at the same moment seeing your Ballie Gifford equity appreciate like one of Mr. Musk's rockets.

Does this not cause trouble for your mind, lead to sleepless nights etc?

If I was in this position I would be in despair, realising I had been on the wrong side of the greatest secular trend of our time and yet not being as Ballie Gifford were making money out of Tesla.

Such extreme contradictions in one mind, although this sort of mind orthogonality of mind can be very useful for barristers, it is generally not that good for investors.

Regards,

[Howard]

Hi Howard,

I have to admire your Infantry like persistence in calling out everything wrong that you can find with Tesla cars while at the same time warming your self on the money made by the Generals at Ballie Gifford.

Maybe you need to think more like a General, abandon your rifle, climb out of your trench and survey the whole battlefield with the artillery and air support of the Generals to guide and instruct you on the import battlefield business of making money.

For a very long time you have had this dichotomy in your mind of everything being wrong with Tesla Motors while at the same moment seeing your Ballie Gifford equity appreciate like one of Mr. Musk's rockets.

Does this not cause trouble for your mind, lead to sleepless nights etc?

If I was in this position I would be in despair, realising I had been on the wrong side of the greatest secular trend of our time and yet not being as Ballie Gifford were making money out of Tesla.

Such extreme contradictions in one mind, although this sort of mind orthogonality of mind can be very useful for barristers, it is generally not that good for investors.

Regards,

Yes, Ody.

You brought the "What Car" survey to our attention. But presumably you didn't read it fully?

I'm not against Tesla but I feel their cars should be judged on their merits and their flaws. And we should be objective - like the survey.

And, as you know, I'm one of the few people who post here who has actually leased a car with an electric motor for two years. And very nice it was. Plus, I have always been open about having shares in an IT which is the largest shareholder in Tesla.

What did you think about the "What Car" review of the Tesla S very poor reliability? You posted it and so you must think it is significant.

regards

Howard

[odysseus2000]

Yes, Ody.

You brought the "What Car" survey to our attention. But presumably you didn't read it fully?

I'm not against Tesla but I feel their cars should be judged on their merits and their flaws. And we should be objective - like the survey.

And, as you know, I'm one of the few people who post here who has actually leased a car with an electric motor for two years. And very nice it was. Plus, I have always been open about having shares in an IT which is the largest shareholder in Tesla.

What did you think about the "What Car" review of the Tesla S very poor reliability? You posted it and so you must think it is significant.

regards

Howard

I am sorry but the idea that surveys are objective produced a huge guffaw.

I have dealt with surveys and know how they can create buying for specific products and consequently how manipulated they are. I know of one case where a business was trying to flog some software to one of the big UK chains who eventually took it and immediately, before any product had been sold, put it at the top of their best seller list. Next week it was their best selling, but it was still a cheat.

Reviews are just marketing opportunities that have very little impact overall. The circulation of the reviews is way too small to be of any significance and as we have seen recently they are often contradictory. Moreover, focusing on model S when the big sellers now are 3 and Y is backward looking in the worst ways possible.

In terms of Tesla cars, it is sales volume that interests me, not the experience of the the odd vocal person who has had a bad experience. When the 3 launched there were several folk showing that if you wound down the window when it was raining, then rain came into the car. That kind of insightful stuff can mess up ones mind if one tries to believe it has meaning and is not just some clown spouting nonsense.

From an investment perspective I want to look at the overall picture, punters moaning about this and that does not impact overall sales, as they are considered only by a few small numbers of folk who take these things seriously.

If Ballie Gifford had taken all the things you consider as important into consideration they would likely have missed out on this huge secular growth and your investments would have been the poorer for it.

Regards,

[odysseus2000]

Bill Gates is negative on the semi and electric air craft:

https://electrek.co/2020/09/06/bill-gat ... ork-wrong/

I don't think he has done the sums and is busy promoting his own investments in bio-fuel production.

Regards,

[Howard]

In August, Tesla sales in Germany were 2,846 and ytd 8,152 and sales in China were 11,800 and ytd just over 69,000.

And Elon Musk made a point of visiting VW to have a test drive in the ID3.

regards

Howard

GM venture's mini car becomes China's most sold EV, surpassing Tesla's Model 3 : https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... ce=twitter

Watch Tesla CEO Elon Musk test drive VW ID.3 https://electrek.co/2020/09/07/tesla-ce ... id3-video/

[odysseus2000]

September has been a bad month for Tesla equity:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/130355 ... 36064?s=20

Tesla daily have some interesting comments:

https://youtu.be/S2nbEJiO2Eo

It would not surprise me to see Tesla have a bearish engulfing month, taking out last months low of $273.

Meanwhile Nikola had a good day and month, but they are still about 50% off their high:

https://twitter.com/0_ody/status/130355 ... 44736?s=20

Battery day has become even more important now. If there is no good and exciting news, Tesla equity could tumble more, but unless the news is truly spectacular it will have a hard time recovering most of the gains.

The Tesla fund raise did happen at quite good prices, so that is a positive.

To me it looks like some time is needed to let the dust settle and then there is battery day.

In the mean time some money raised by folk who sold Tesla may go to Nikola, or might just be kept waiting to see what happens.

On a more bearish scenario, the whole market could come off on concerns over Trump v China and Covid 19, or what ever excuse is dreamed up to cover the most basic one of folk taking profits.

In the comments of the Tesla daily article there are several posters who see this as a big buying opportunity which it may be, but this also means that there is currently no wash out of weak holders having had enough and there may be sellers waiting for any price rise to unload more.

We are dealing with things that are Tesla specific and things that are market specific and that makes it difficult.

It is quite possible that we have seen the market bottom and that the markets return to their belief that the Fed is pumping so much money in that any sell off is a buy.

I have no idea or thesis here, just waiting for price action in Tesla and the market to give me some hints.

Not knowing what will happen has caused me to do some very small buying into the declines.

Regards,