Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Musk endeavours

The Big Picture Place
dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#387945

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 12:40 pm

BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:


So Tesla's Berlin facility first stage looks to be appropriately sized :) and is progressing well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnwMZq_uhEc

By the way, the first stage is probably going to have a 500k/yr capacity and appears to be about a quarter of the intended first main building footprint. The indications are that Tesla are ultimately targeting 2m/yr production.

regards, dspp


Any idea when they will get planning approval?


Apparently the German Minister For Tesla says that wont be a problem :)

"In a recent appearance at a podcast with German media outlet InfoRadio.de, Brandenburg Economy Minister Steinbach noted that Tesla’s final permits for Gigafactory Berlin would not jeopardize the electric car maker’s plans to start vehicle production around July this year."

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-be ... roduction/

We will see,

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6366
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1534 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#387953

Postby odysseus2000 » February 19th, 2021, 12:58 pm

BobbyD
Today's breakfast listening:

The Economist Asks: Herbert Diess

When will the electric car rule the road?


WHEN WILL the electric car rule the road? Herbert Diess, the chief executive of Germany's Volkswagen Group, talks to Anne McElvoy and Simon Wright, The Economist’s Industry editor, about its plans to switch from the internal-combustion engine to electrification. More than a dozen countries have set a date for when they will prohibit sales of fossil-fuelled cars -- but are these plans realistic? He also tells us why his daughter doesn’t own a car and who he thinks will win the electrification race.


- https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2021 ... e-the-road


Interesting discussion. Diess believes people will still want to own cars and notes that new cars will be much safer while admiting that VW is a long way behind in the consumer electronics aspects of over the air updates and such.

He also that electrification was inevitable even with out Tesla, but failed to say how much longer it would have taken, admiring that Tesla are pushing VW to compete.

Regards,

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6366
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1534 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#387956

Postby odysseus2000 » February 19th, 2021, 1:02 pm

Musk on bitcoin:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3663877-e ... king_alpha

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) action is not directly reflective of my opinion," tweets Elon Musk of his company's $1.5B Bitcoin (BTC-USD) purchase. "Having some Bitcoin, which is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash, is adventurous enough for an S&P 500 company."


"When fiat currency has negative real interest [rate], only a fool wouldn't look elsewhere. Bitcoin is almost as bs as fiat money. The key word is 'almost'."


Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#387975

Postby BobbyD » February 19th, 2021, 1:50 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
He also that electrification was inevitable even with out Tesla, but failed to say how much longer it would have taken, admiring that Tesla are pushing VW to compete.


The regulations which have seen the European market electrify were proposed in 2007 and passed in 2009, they have nothing to do with Tesla.

The Chinese market has the same driver.

The two markets which have seen significant progress in electrification? That'll be Europe and China. When did those markets see an explosion in BEV's? That would be when the regulations began to bite.

Tesla's home market? Despite 4 times the population it's a touch bigger than Germany but growing at a fraction of the rate.

The idea that Tesla have had any meaningful effect on the rate of electrification is sheer fantasy.

Howard
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2178
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:26 pm
Has thanked: 885 times
Been thanked: 1017 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#387977

Postby Howard » February 19th, 2021, 1:54 pm

May I suggest another market to watch this year as well as Germany - the US market might be interesting. Tesla has dominated the US BEV market so far but competition may be starting to influence them.

Are VW's activities in the US market the reason for Tesla's slightly odd decision to reduce the price of a new model within a week or two of launching?

Flexible prices are fine but maybe potential Tesla buyers would be sensible to wait a month or two more for further reductions?

"And with the latest round of price cuts, the Model Y is once again cheaper than Volkswagen’s current entry-level ID.4 offer in the US – albeit only by five dollars. The price cut comes as a surprise here, however, as Tesla had only announced this version of the Model Y in the first place at the beginning of January 2021."

regards

Howard

https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/18/te ... 3-model-y/

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#387995

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 3:33 pm

Odd, I thought VW had fixed all the ID3 and ID4 software

https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/ ... 01883?s=21
"According to the Dutch financial newspaper „Het Financieele Dagblad“, #VW may have to recall ALL electric ID cars (#ID3 and #ID4) due to major software issues."

Is this a new problem ? Or same old problem ? Or not a problem ?

regards, dspp

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388053

Postby dspp » February 19th, 2021, 9:04 pm

Mexico border (Boca Chica) to Detroit in 36h, is the closing line, with 12-13 charge stations.
(The Google maps time, zero stops, is 25h, 1671 miles)
They did Sat morning through till 9pm Sunday
In a Tesla Model 3
Sounds like it was about the predicted 36h
The point is, this is the new normal, just drive anywhere in a Tesla, no need to make special arrangements in advance.

BUT listen to all the preceding 9-mins,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1nc_ch ... e=emb_logo

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6366
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1534 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388070

Postby odysseus2000 » February 19th, 2021, 10:41 pm

BobbyD
The idea that Tesla have had any meaningful effect on the rate of electrification is sheer fantasy.


Thank you! Best Guffaw of the day.

For those not following the history, California had a mandate last century to require electric vehicles. A few manufacturers made vehicles, but supply was so limited that California abandoned its mandate.

GM did make electric cars, then feared they would threaten ICE sales & therefore had them seized by police & crushed.

Only when Tesla started to sell electric cars did legacy auto start to panic & make their own pitiful attempts at BEV.

With out Tesla there would be no meaningful electrification & the world would have continued to warm with the risk of catastrophic climate change.

Regards,

BobbyD
Lemon Half
Posts: 7814
Joined: January 22nd, 2017, 2:29 pm
Has thanked: 665 times
Been thanked: 1289 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388106

Postby BobbyD » February 20th, 2021, 7:28 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD
The idea that Tesla have had any meaningful effect on the rate of electrification is sheer fantasy.


Thank you! Best Guffaw of the day.

For those not following the history, California had a mandate last century to require electric vehicles. A few manufacturers made vehicles, but supply was so limited that California abandoned its mandate.

GM did make electric cars, then feared they would threaten ICE sales & therefore had them seized by police & crushed.

Only when Tesla started to sell electric cars did legacy auto start to panic & make their own pitiful attempts at BEV.

With out Tesla there would be no meaningful electrification & the world would have continued to warm with the risk of catastrophic climate change.

Regards,



Your delusions would be funny if they weren't so worrying Ody. Tesla has had such a big effect on electrification that the only market it dominates is a very distant third to Europe and China, and is likely to be overtaken by Germany's domestic market in the next year or two.

The presence of Tesla doesn't mean electrification is a success. The absence of Tesla is no bar to the success of electrification. The pertinent factor is regulation, Tesla is irrelevant.

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388115

Postby dealtn » February 20th, 2021, 8:44 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
With out Tesla there would be no meaningful electrification & the world would have continued to warm with the risk of catastrophic climate change.



You are claiming the world is now cooling, and that's down to Tesla?

Possibly the strangest claim I have seen anywhere, let alone on this thread!

scrumpyjack
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4816
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:15 am
Has thanked: 606 times
Been thanked: 2675 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388123

Postby scrumpyjack » February 20th, 2021, 9:40 am

I see today's Times estimates Tesla is currently showing a profit of $930m on the Bitcoin it bought, more than it made from selling cars in the whole of last year. :D
I wonder if they can include that in EPS, if realised?

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388141

Postby dspp » February 20th, 2021, 10:26 am

scrumpyjack wrote:I see today's Times estimates Tesla is currently showing a profit of $930m on the Bitcoin it bought, more than it made from selling cars in the whole of last year. :D
I wonder if they can include that in EPS, if realised?


No they can't book profit unless at time of sale. However they have to book any losses, it seems that under GAAP etc mark to market of bitcoin is only on the downside. Not my area, but there was a lot of debate about this in another forum.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6366
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1534 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388150

Postby odysseus2000 » February 20th, 2021, 10:50 am

dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
With out Tesla there would be no meaningful electrification & the world would have continued to warm with the risk of catastrophic climate change.



You are claiming the world is now cooling, and that's down to Tesla?

Possibly the strangest claim I have seen anywhere, let alone on this thread!


I am saying that with out Tesla there would have been no meaningful move towards sustainable transport and away from ICE.

The argument that this is all about regulation & nothing to do with Tesla is false, as the politicians can regulate as much as they like but if there is no practical method to achieve that regulation its all pointiess as California found out last century.

As I have typed before i have no idea if the global warming consensus is right. I have written enough Monte Carlo simulations to be well aware that they can give very misleading results and I have studied alternative approaches based on solar output and cosmic rays. However, the wild changes in climate that we are seeing such as the recent snow and frost in Texas are what climate warming models predict. Whether this continues smoothly and then falls off as renewables become more common or whether we enter a species threatening situation with the melting of say the Siberian Tundra is unclear. If something like an accelerated greenhouse effect suddenly starts the current batch of proposed emergency carbon capture technologies would have some very serious work to do and are imho not upto the job of removing giga tons of CO2 quickly from the atmosphere. This fear is why Musk has put up a $100 million prize for anyone who can come up with a practical way of quickly taking gigatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere. If this prize is won, then needed and it works, then Tesla would have litterally saved the human species and many others.

No one knows what will happen to the climate, but there is without question a serious risk to many species if we enter a period of rapid global warming and consequently it makes sense to use renewable carbon neutral energy sources as much as possible.

Regards,

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388152

Postby dealtn » February 20th, 2021, 10:54 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
dealtn wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
With out Tesla there would be no meaningful electrification & the world would have continued to warm with the risk of catastrophic climate change.



You are claiming the world is now cooling, and that's down to Tesla?

Possibly the strangest claim I have seen anywhere, let alone on this thread!


I am saying that with out Tesla there would have been no meaningful move towards sustainable transport and away from ICE.



That's fine. Why not just say that then? What you said initially is a completely different thing.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388155

Postby dspp » February 20th, 2021, 11:19 am

Hmmmmm.....

"How Many 2020 Volkswagen ID.3 Sales Were Volkswagen Sales To Itself?
It appears that Volkswagen might have been up to some shenanigans as of late — or, at least, the narrative around its EV sales in Europe has been misleading."


https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/19/ho ... to-itself/

I really don't know what to think. If you read around there is quite a lot of anecdote that some brands stopped selling immediately they reached the 2020 EU-compliance limit, and then held back stock to go into 2021. That would be rational. I wonder if VAG has been trying to have it both ways. I really don't know what figures one can trust.

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6366
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1534 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388170

Postby odysseus2000 » February 20th, 2021, 12:12 pm

dspp wrote:Hmmmmm.....

"How Many 2020 Volkswagen ID.3 Sales Were Volkswagen Sales To Itself?
It appears that Volkswagen might have been up to some shenanigans as of late — or, at least, the narrative around its EV sales in Europe has been misleading."


https://cleantechnica.com/2021/02/19/ho ... to-itself/

I really don't know what to think. If you read around there is quite a lot of anecdote that some brands stopped selling immediately they reached the 2020 EU-compliance limit, and then held back stock to go into 2021. That would be rational. I wonder if VAG has been trying to have it both ways. I really don't know what figures one can trust.

regards, dspp


Which ever way you look at this it isn't doing VW any favours.

If you take the "sales" figures as gospel you have a new car selling well.

If you take the "sales" figures as 35% VW to VW you have a new car not selling well and all the people who have been touting the sales success of the ID3 feeling like the have been had.

If you think VW have learned from Dieselgate and yet now look to have been trying to pull another fast one regarding emission payments it does nothing for VW's already stained reputation.

So this is either all bad publicity for a good well accepted new car, unfairly hurting its reputation, or you have bad, poorly accepted new car that is not selling and is garnering yet more negative PR by the moment.

Looking at what the ID3 is, its cost and its software limitations does nothing to make me feel like I would be interested in owning one. It is small, not that cheap and seemingly has many software problems. Most of the VW owners I know want something that is low cost and reliable that starts when they get in, goes and stops at the destination. They do not want something that causes them hassles and has to go back for upgrades and what not.

As things are the ID3 does not imho look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile and as such I am minded to think the sales figures are fabrications including a lot of VW to VW sales.

Diess imho has now got another mess to sort out and a car that has been put into production far too early making his job near impossible.

Regards,

Leif
Lemon Pip
Posts: 62
Joined: February 6th, 2021, 4:08 pm
Has thanked: 35 times
Been thanked: 29 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388332

Postby Leif » February 21st, 2021, 9:11 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
As things are the ID3 does not imho look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile and as such I am minded to think the sales figures are fabrications including a lot of VW to VW sales.

Diess imho has now got another mess to sort out and a car that has been put into production far too early making his job near impossible.

Regards,


You are unbelievably partisan. Do you own Tesla shares? Everything you write is shaped to be pro Tesla, and against non Tesla. You remind me of YouTube videos from the Teslarati. I believe they are trying to pump the share price.

The first review I read concluded with “I’d buy one”. Other reviews are very positive.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-revie ... hatchback/
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswagen/id3
https://www.carwow.co.uk/volkswagen/id3

As for your remark that it doesn’t look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile, reports suggest early ones have software glitches, no doubt this was to make it feel like a VW. I once couldn’t turn my VW Polo’s engine off. Taking the key out didn’t do it! I couldn’t turn the radio off either. So I was stuck outside the Ercol showroom, making a racket, unable to go inside.

BTW Tesla have had three recalls in China in the last six months alone, the latest is for touchscreen failures. For ages Tesla had quality control issues. A recent recall was for potentially faulty and unsafe suspension.

It’ll be interesting to see if once Tesla manufacturing has been in place a few years, if the Chinese make life hard for them, to favour Chinese companies who use the same supply chain.

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388343

Postby dspp » February 21st, 2021, 10:28 am

Leif wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:
As things are the ID3 does not imho look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile and as such I am minded to think the sales figures are fabrications including a lot of VW to VW sales.

Diess imho has now got another mess to sort out and a car that has been put into production far too early making his job near impossible.

Regards,


You are unbelievably partisan. Do you own Tesla shares? Everything you write is shaped to be pro Tesla, and against non Tesla. You remind me of YouTube videos from the Teslarati. I believe they are trying to pump the share price. ........

As for your remark that it doesn’t look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile, reports suggest early ones have software glitches, no doubt this was to make it feel like a VW. I once couldn’t turn my VW Polo’s engine off. Taking the key out didn’t do it! I couldn’t turn the radio off either. So I was stuck outside the Ercol showroom, making a racket, unable to go inside.


Teslarati are indeed pretty partisan - towards clickbaiting views for $$$. Electrek are worse !

My VW suffers the reverse problem, sometimes the entire lock spins when I rotate the key and I can't start it. Ordinarily after half a dozen key out / jiggle steering lock / key in moments it engages. I guess there would a happy medium if we were to swap bits of our respective locks.

Speaking of VW failings, unfortunately mine is now suffering from Covid. It is used so infrequently these days that the mice are beginning to regard it as a fixed structure and set up home in it. I've caught two of the little blighters so far, rather more terminally for their basic instincts than this : https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyl ... ts-cartoon

As to whether TSLA is a good buy up at $780, well that depends on whether you think 5-years x 50%yoy growth is baked in with extra to come, or whether disappointments beckon. Personally I remain too scared to tempt fate by touching mine. I am intrigued by the proponents of VAG on 5x PE but hard data seems lacking. I am always open to reading sound analysis .........

regards, dspp

odysseus2000
Lemon Half
Posts: 6366
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 11:33 pm
Has thanked: 1534 times
Been thanked: 959 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388349

Postby odysseus2000 » February 21st, 2021, 10:44 am

LEIF
You are unbelievably partisan. Do you own Tesla shares? Everything you write is shaped to be pro Tesla, and against non Tesla. You remind me of YouTube videos from the Teslarati. I believe they are trying to pump the share price.

The first review I read concluded with “I’d buy one”. Other reviews are very positive.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-revie ... hatchback/
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volkswagen/id3
https://www.carwow.co.uk/volkswagen/id3

As for your remark that it doesn’t look like the kind of car that will sell to the typical VW owner profile, reports suggest early ones have software glitches, no doubt this was to make it feel like a VW. I once couldn’t turn my VW Polo’s engine off. Taking the key out didn’t do it! I couldn’t turn the radio off either. So I was stuck outside the Ercol showroom, making a racket, unable to go inside.

BTW Tesla have had three recalls in China in the last six months alone, the latest is for touchscreen failures. For ages Tesla had quality control issues. A recent recall was for potentially faulty and unsafe suspension.

It’ll be interesting to see if once Tesla manufacturing has been in place a few years, if the Chinese make life hard for them, to favour Chinese companies who use the same supply chain.


Yes, I own Tesla equity often trade them, although recently I have been buy and hold and the shares have been good to me, which I have stated very many times on this board. With every bulletin board every reader should assume that the poster has some interest in the equity.

Yes, I have read all the reviews about the ID3 and for now I have no idea if the sales figures are correct and it is selling well, or if it is not selling and the sales figures are VW to VW. Do you know? I have zero faith in reviews knowing from personal experience how unreliable and biassed they are.

My comments on what VW owners want is from knowing many of them. Their usual line of car chatter is too say how reliable VW are, then make excuses for the odd problem and are over the moon if the car doesn't have problems. Personally I prefer to buy old cars that have depreciated to scrap value and keep them running, something the VW drivers I have met would never do. Several of the VW owners were disgusted by dieselgate but have now managed to forget about this corporate thieving from them.

All car makers have recalls.

VW along with many other auto makers also have plants in China so if the Chinese state turns nasty it will hurt all the automakers and although some will argue that China is a capitalist country now, there is lots of evidence that they are currently a brutal political state and that could lead to all manner of troubles going forward, or the US and Europe may continue to turn a blind eye to the murderous activities of the communist part , although potentially having a lot of Chinese people emigrate here from Hong Kong may change views:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13939633/ ... rce=pushly

Regards,

dspp
Lemon Half
Posts: 5884
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 10:53 am
Has thanked: 5825 times
Been thanked: 2127 times

Re: Musk endeavours

#388359

Postby dspp » February 21st, 2021, 11:12 am

Appears Ford may be up for the fight as well, unclear whether this will be on the VW MEB platform,

"Spearheading Ford’s advance into an all-electric future is a new $1 billion investment to modernize its vehicle assembly facility in Cologne, Germany, one of its largest manufacturing centers in Europe and the home of Ford of Europe. The investment will transform the existing vehicle assembly operations into the Ford Cologne Electrification Center for the manufacture of electric vehicles, Ford’s first such facility in Europe."
https://electrek.co/2021/02/17/ford-inv ... y-germany/

For some reason Ford don't appear keen on that other European high-cost location, the UK.

regards, dspp


Return to “Macro and Global Topics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Urbandreamer and 7 guests