Musk endeavours

[BobbyD]

So there was a $100 swing (down then up) in a $700 share price in 24-hours on no TSLA news, in the middle of a fairly lengthy no-news period.

Odd.



(credit to Google for graph)

That's what I think of as normal Tesla variance!

Haven't read it but insideevs have some rumour about a partial shutdown of Fremont.

Perhaps the fact that Elon hasn't tweeted anything stupid for 48 hours is taken as a sign that there is something seriously wrong monopolising his attention?

Oh, and there has been quite a lot of price changes.

[dspp]

Haven't read it but insideevs have some rumour about a partial shutdown of Fremont. .

I guess that could be it. Sheesh, a partial slowdown in Fremont (500k/yr >> 300k/yr) because the Samsung fab in Texas had a brief power outage.
regards, dspp

[odysseus2000]

So there was a $100 swing (down then up) in a $700 share price in 24-hours on no TSLA news, in the middle of a fairly lengthy no-news period.

Odd.



(credit to Google for graph)

This is what markets do: Test what price folk will pay for assets.

The market took a lot of tech stuff down in a broad bear raid. The big question as this raid was ongoing, was is this the beginning of a big rotation from tech that has done well with Covid to staples and similar that have been weak during Covid, or was it just price discovery. I.e. shorts finding out when the longs would come back in and support tech.

As of now it all looks like price discovery. The shorts banged down the tech sector, then the longs came in, the shorts covered and flipped long and prices came back up.

This is normal market activity and it is where traders win over long term holders. Ark (Cathy Wood) for example operate trading accounts in their favourites, selling some % of their exposure into euphoria, buying into pessimism. If this is done wisely it can add to returns but it does cause tax liabilities that have to be paid.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

Haven't read it but insideevs have some rumour about a partial shutdown of Fremont. .

I guess that could be it. Sheesh, a partial slowdown in Fremont (500k/yr >> 300k/yr) because the Samsung fab in Texas had a brief power outage.
regards, dspp

There's a massive chip shortage at the moment affecting many industries. VW gave guidance last year based on covid disruption to automotive controller supply chain, and graphics card manufacturers are rereleasing 2 and 4 year old models because the cryptobubble has made it impossible to source a vaguely modern GPU for love nor $3000...

If you made a 'computer on wheels' it's not unforeseeable you might be affected.

[odysseus2000]

BobbyD
There's a massive chip shortage at the moment affecting many industries. VW gave guidance last year based on covid disruption to automotive controller supply chain, and graphics card manufacturers are rereleasing 2 and 4 year old models because the cryptobubble has made it impossible to source a vaguely modern GPU for love nor $3000...

If you made a 'computer on wheels' it's not unforeseeable you might be affected.

It is not clear if Tesla are troubled by this as they have their own contract with Samsung for their tailor made chips and it is not clear if they cancelled any orders for other processors/IC etc when many other folk did and as such may still have contracts in place.

There are many wild stories about many other IC consumers facing big supply limitations. Clearly one can not throw up an IC fabrication plant over night so the existing fab plants are now running 24-7 to supply demand, but there are limits to what can be done and with most industry operating on a "Just in Time" procurement schedule for IC there are likely to be bottle necks and troubles on going for some time.

How big an impact crypto mining is having is hard to say as one imagines that this industry wasn't too bothered by covid and kept up demand for processors when others didn't. There are youtube video showing how extremely cheaply one can now buy early generation crypto mining set ups which are still very powerful, but now lagging more recent devices in an industry where speed and power consumption are important parameters.

If Tesla are being hurt by chip shortages they should issue a statement to the exchange. So far I have seen no statements on this, but please post if you are aware of any.

Regards,

[dspp]

BobbyD
There's a massive chip shortage at the moment affecting many industries. VW gave guidance last year based on covid disruption to automotive controller supply chain, and graphics card manufacturers are rereleasing 2 and 4 year old models because the cryptobubble has made it impossible to source a vaguely modern GPU for love nor $3000...

If you made a 'computer on wheels' it's not unforeseeable you might be affected.

It is not clear if Tesla are troubled by this as they have their own contract with Samsung for their tailor made chips and it is not clear if they cancelled any orders for other processors/IC etc when many other folk did and as such may still have contracts in place.

There are many wild stories about many other IC consumers facing big supply limitations. Clearly one can not throw up an IC fabrication plant over night so the existing fab plants are now running 24-7 to supply demand, but there are limits to what can be done and with most industry operating on a "Just in Time" procurement schedule for IC there are likely to be bottle necks and troubles on going for some time.

How big an impact crypto mining is having is hard to say as one imagines that this industry wasn't too bothered by covid and kept up demand for processors when others didn't. There are youtube video showing how extremely cheaply one can now buy early generation crypto mining set ups which are still very powerful, but now lagging more recent devices in an industry where speed and power consumption are important parameters.

If Tesla are being hurt by chip shortages they should issue a statement to the exchange. So far I have seen no statements on this, but please post if you are aware of any.

Regards,

Ody,
Tesla have issued no statement. There are unsubstantiated reports that the 3 line in Fremont has been slowed down to 800/day (which I think would be about a ~30% reduction). There are rumours that some production eqpt maintenance work has been pulled forwards. There are rumours that this is because of some disruption to the Samsung factory in Texas that makes the chips for the main HW, and that this was due to the Texas ERCOT region power outages that affected last week. There are no rumours that this is related in any way to the general global chip shortage (which as far as I know Tesla are not affected by). There are no rumours that this affects the Y line, or for thay matter the S/X line that is supposed to be restarting if the corresponding refresh delivery timing rumours are true. Whether any of this is true is not clear. Even if it was true it would only be a small and temporary volume affected. Hope this helps.
regards,
dspp

[odysseus2000]

Ody,
Tesla have issued no statement. There are unsubstantiated reports that the 3 line in Fremont has been slowed down to 800/day (which I think would be about a ~30% reduction). There are rumours that some production eqpt maintenance work has been pulled forwards. There are rumours that this is because of some disruption to the Samsung factory in Texas that makes the chips for the main HW, and that this was due to the Texas ERCOT region power outages that affected last week. There are no rumours that this is related in any way to the general global chip shortage (which as far as I know Tesla are not affected by). There are no rumours that this affects the Y line, or for thay matter the S/X line that is supposed to be restarting if the corresponding refresh delivery timing rumours are true. Whether any of this is true is not clear. Even if it was true it would only be a small and temporary volume affected. Hope this helps.
regards,
dspp

Thank you!

This fits in with the mood music I have been hearing and if true puts Tesla in a very good position compared to competitors.

Regards,

[dspp]

Ody,
Tesla have issued no statement. There are unsubstantiated reports that the 3 line in Fremont has been slowed down to 800/day (which I think would be about a ~30% reduction). There are rumours that some production eqpt maintenance work has been pulled forwards. There are rumours that this is because of some disruption to the Samsung factory in Texas that makes the chips for the main HW, and that this was due to the Texas ERCOT region power outages that affected last week. There are no rumours that this is related in any way to the general global chip shortage (which as far as I know Tesla are not affected by). There are no rumours that this affects the Y line, or for thay matter the S/X line that is supposed to be restarting if the corresponding refresh delivery timing rumours are true. Whether any of this is true is not clear. Even if it was true it would only be a small and temporary volume affected. Hope this helps.
regards,
dspp

Thank you!

This fits in with the mood music I have been hearing and if true puts Tesla in a very good position compared to competitors.

Regards,

Ody,

It is now on Bloomberg https://www.bloombergquint.com/business ... california

Reason is related to viewtopic.php?f=16&p=389983#p389983 , i.e. this does not seem to be driven by the general global chip issues. Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

Looks like Samsung Texas should have bought some Tesla Megapacks.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

From your own source:

Tesla said last month that it’s trying to mitigate the effects of a global semiconductor shortage on its operations...

[dspp]

Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

From your own source:

Tesla said last month that it’s trying to mitigate the effects of a global semiconductor shortage on its operations...

The CFO said this in the quarterly call, but observations of factory throughput have indicated no actual issues. There may be issues, but not ones that are being picked up from the outside - it seemed to me that the CFO was being cautious in answering the analyst question because of the implications of being potentially misleading. My recollection is that the CFO cut across the CEO (Musk) at that point, and that the CEO (or was it the COO) was starting to answer that Tesla was not having these problems.

In contrast all the indications appear to be that there is a direct linkage between the Fremont 3 line slowdown, the Samsung Texas plant problems, and the Texas ERCOT outage.

I guess we will see.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

From your own source:

Tesla said last month that it’s trying to mitigate the effects of a global semiconductor shortage on its operations...

The CFO said this in the quarterly call, but observations of factory throughput have indicated no actual issues. There may be issues, but not ones that are being picked up from the outside - it seemed to me that the CFO was being cautious in answering the analyst question because of the implications of being potentially misleading. My recollection is that the CFO cut across the CEO (Musk) at that point, and that the CEO (or was it the COO) was starting to answer that Tesla was not having these problems.

In contrast all the indications appear to be that there is a direct linkage between the Fremont 3 line slowdown, the Samsung Texas plant problems, and the Texas ERCOT outage.

I guess we will see.

regards, dspp

So you heard the CFO say that Tesla was affected, even going so far as to say that hey were working to mitigate the effect, yet everything you are hearing is that those issues do not affect Tesla?

Can you see why Tesla appears somewhat cult like to outsiders?

[dspp]

From your own source:

The CFO said this in the quarterly call, but observations of factory throughput have indicated no actual issues. There may be issues, but not ones that are being picked up from the outside - it seemed to me that the CFO was being cautious in answering the analyst question because of the implications of being potentially misleading. My recollection is that the CFO cut across the CEO (Musk) at that point, and that the CEO (or was it the COO) was starting to answer that Tesla was not having these problems.

In contrast all the indications appear to be that there is a direct linkage between the Fremont 3 line slowdown, the Samsung Texas plant problems, and the Texas ERCOT outage.

I guess we will see.

regards, dspp

So you heard the CFO say that Tesla was affected, even going so far as to say that hey were working to mitigate the effect, yet everything you are hearing is that those issues do not affect Tesla?

Can you see why Tesla appears somewhat cult like to outsiders?

No, I heard the CFO say that it was trying to ensure it would not be affected.

Can you see why TSLA-shareholders perceive a lot of word-twisting going on out there.

regards, dspp

[BobbyD]

No, I heard the CFO say that it was trying to ensure it would not be affected.

Can you see why TSLA-shareholders perceive a lot of word-twisting going on out there.

Mitigation requires effect.

Make (something bad) less severe, serious, or painful.

- https://www.lexico.com/definition/mitigate

That's not twisting words, it is understanding what they actually mean.

[odysseus2000]

For those of you who like hydrogen here is a 30 minute video of Munroe saying why he prefers hydrogen for heavy goods and for aviation:

https://youtu.be/Q2G8v2mUA-0

The video is a bit slow and there is no discussion of the practicality of fuel cells, cost, reliability etc. We all know that Apollo used fuel cells and how well they worked, but that was not a commercial venture. Munroe again repeats his assertion that rich folk will want aerial taxis and that this will drive that market. It is not clear to me whether one could have aerial taxis with lithium-ion and for now I do not see practical hydrogen fuel cells for at least 3 years, likely a lot longer.

Still maybe other posters are more optimistic.

Regards,

[dspp]

No, I heard the CFO say that it was trying to ensure it would not be affected.

Can you see why TSLA-shareholders perceive a lot of word-twisting going on out there.

Mitigation requires effect.

Make (something bad) less severe, serious, or painful.

- https://www.lexico.com/definition/mitigate

That's not twisting words, it is understanding what they actually mean.

BD,

I think you need to be slightly more realistic with your dictionary. What it meant in this particular context was,

"Shut up Musk, I'll handle this. Now y'all, I can't let Musk say this, but we told all our suppliers to keep on ramping production at about 50% per year. The other clients who are our competitors all cancelled their chip orders. So we have firm supply for a few years out at the 50% ramp rate, and are at front of the queue for extra if we want it. But sh1t could happen so I'd better not let Musk say that. So instead I'll repeat the standard pro forma MBA bullsh1t that I took the two years off to go to HBS to be able to recite. So all say after me, "we are seeking to mitigate any possible effects". Phew, I think I earn't my pay cheque and defused that IED. Can we now please move on to the next analyst question."

But you know this.

By the way, how is VAG's chip supply shaping up ?

regards, dspp

[Howard]

By the way, how is VAG's chip supply shaping up ?

regards, dspp

I don't know the answer to your question. But VW are certainly ramping up production. I've lost count of the new BEV models they have actually launched.

If these reports prove to be accurate, there's no imminent shortage of batteries for VW nor chips for their BEVs.

And lots of VW jobs protected. (Rumour has it VW need a lot of staff to keep buying ID.3s ) .

By the way, I hope Tesla fans will treat VW forecasts the way they treat Tesla claims ie unquestioned belief.

Given its short-term predictions we'll soon see if this article is correct.

"Volkswagen plans to introduce a third shift at its MEB plant in Zwickau from mid-April. This will enable around 1,400 vehicles to be built per day from the summer onwards."

regards

Howard

https://www.electrive.com/2021/02/25/vo ... kau-plant/

[BobbyD]

But you know this.

Kindly stop telling me what I know, you aren't psychic and attributing thoughts and knowledge to other people is a poor form of debate.

It also isn't relevant to my point. You just made a claim that everything you were hearing indicated that Tesla weren't affected, cited a source which claimed Tesla were seeking to mitigate the effect it had on them, and then attributed the basis of that quote to a senior company officer talking during a company presentation. It doesn't matter how you interpret those words, or how they were reported the level of cognitive dissonance required to continue arguing that

Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

is frankly astounding. Sadly I think it's entirely possible that you genuinely don't recognise that.


VW's chip supply is short, as they've predicted several times, but others seem to be fairing worse:

U.S. car giant General Motors announced last Wednesday that it is shutting three plants and slowing production at a fourth due to the semiconductor shortage. The Detroit car manufacturer said it could miss its 2021 targets as a result.

...Several other car manufacturers have also put production on hold in recent weeks. Honda U.K.’s main plant in Swindon was shut down for several days last month due to a chip shortage, for example. Elsewhere, Ford and Volkswagen have also shut plants or cut production while they wait for supplies to pick up.

Ford said in January that it was shutting a factory in Germany for a month, while Volkswagen said in December it will make 100,000 fewer cars this quarter as a result of the shortage.

- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/08/carmake ... -why-.html

By the way, I hope Tesla fans will treat VW forecasts the way they treat Tesla claims ie unquestioned belief.

Given its short-term predictions we'll soon see if this article is correct.

"Volkswagen plans to introduce a third shift at its MEB plant in Zwickau from mid-April. This will enable around 1,400 vehicles to be built per day from the summer onwards."

Come on Howard, you know the rules. For Tesla you count all the potential extrapolated capacity based on some random Teslarati on Twitter's wildest dreams, for VW you count 52% of units sold...

[dspp]

But you know this.

Kindly stop telling me what I know, you aren't psychic and attributing thoughts and knowledge to other people is a poor form of debate.

It also isn't relevant to my point. You just made a claim that everything you were hearing indicated that Tesla weren't affected, cited a source which claimed Tesla were seeking to mitigate the effect it had on them, and then attributed the basis of that quote to a senior company officer talking during a company presentation. It doesn't matter how you interpret those words, or how they were reported the level of cognitive dissonance required to continue arguing that

Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

is frankly astounding. Sadly I think it's entirely possible that you genuinely don't recognise that...

BD,

Please show evidence of actual Tesla production shortages caused by the global chip shortage, as opposed to caused by the unrelated Texas ERCOT electricity outage ? Actual shortfalls. Not words from the CFO saying that Tesla would act to avoid shortfalls. Please show actual shortfalls. I'm sorry if I sound like a broken record, but at the moment I cannot see any evidence of what you are suggesting, and I've looked quite hard, and I have explained this to you. In the absence of evidence, I am struggling not to conclude this is evidence of absence, i.e. Tesla is apparently not affected by the global issues, only by the specific and unrelated ERCOT issue.

Furthermore given that Tesla is currently only 0.5m of 80m global car production, and accelerated strongly throughout 2020 (unlike every other car manufacturer), and told all its suppliers that it has been intending to do the same again for the next decade, I find it difficult not to think that Tesla has been placing its firm orders correctly and gaining the corresponding supplier attention.

As I have also said before, we will see in due course. In the meantime Fremont is up and running - https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-lea ... sh-demand/ which suggests that post-ERCOT supplies are restored.

regards,
dspp

[odysseus2000]

Powerwall sales bonanza in Texas & other Southern states?

There has been a lot of commentary and many poor quality and slow youtube videos about how folk in Texas with natural gas, still suffered terribly during the bad weather as they did not have electrical power to operate the pumps needed to circulate the heat from the burned natural gas around their dwellings. The folk who had power walls, best those with powerwalls and solar, were more able to heat their homes.

Many argue that this storm was a once in a century event, but if global warming is true we can expect more such storms and this maybe enough to prompt many in Texas and other Southern States to invest in solar (roof tiles work better for shifting snow than do panels) and to lead to more business for solar. In addition the fab plants that have been hurt by losing power, may decide that the cost of a big Tesla battery that can earnings its daily bread by helping to balance the Texas grid, and for keeping on the fab in case the grid goes down is a good investment.

All of these suggest more business for Tesla solar energy and storage.

Regards,

[BobbyD]

BD,

Please show evidence of actual Tesla production shortages caused by the global chip shortage, as opposed to caused by the unrelated Texas ERCOT electricity outage ?

Why?

Not words from the CFO saying that Tesla would act to avoid shortfalls. Please show actual shortfalls. I'm sorry if I sound like a broken record, but at the moment I cannot see any evidence of what you are suggesting, and I've looked quite hard, and I have explained this to you.

What I'm suggesting is that when you said

Everything I am hearing is that those global chip issues do not affect Tesla.

you weren't being, what's the word, accurate.

My evidence is that you cited a source that said

Tesla said last month that it’s trying to mitigate the effects of a global semiconductor shortage on its operations...

My further evidence is that you then attributed that story to comments made by the CFO in a company presentation.

I'm sorry if I sound like a broken record, but I really can't find a simpler way to explain to you that your statements are self-contradictory, and your inability to see that looks from the outside very much like a structural blindspot in your thinking.