The Lemon Fool

Organic is non paid traffic, but whether bots or Humans is unclear:

https://useinsider.com/glossary/organic ... timization.

Regards,

Amateurs have enthused about how Tesla would disrupt the car insurance market.

Tesla insurance underwriting loss in 2023 was $30 million on written premiums of just under $500 million. Its combined ratio was around 145%. (A successful insurance company would aim for just under 100%).

It’s easy to grow an insurance operation if your costs are around 50% higher than your premium income.

Sobering news for those who thought Teslas would be good risks and cheap to repair.

Legacy insurers must be smiling. (Their combined ratio in the USA is around 97.5% on average.)

Warren Buffett's insurance company GEICO had an amazing 2023 with a combined ratio of just over 90% leading to profits of $3.6 billion.

regards

Howard

https://coverager.com/tesla-insurance-e ... -premiums/

“Tesla hoped that advanced telematics and safer cars with multiple safety aids would cut claims. Unfortunately, all those tech aids are very expensive to repair when damaged, and the company is even facing a class action over claims of over-inflating premiums.”

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us ... 79768.aspx

Howard wrote:Amateurs have enthused about how Tesla would disrupt the car insurance market.

Tesla insurance underwriting loss in 2023 was $30 million on written premiums of just under $500 million. Its combined ratio was around 145%. (A successful insurance company would aim for just under 100%).

It’s easy to grow an insurance operation if your costs are around 50% higher than your premium income.

Sobering news for those who thought Teslas would be good risks and cheap to repair.

Legacy insurers must be smiling. (Their combined ratio in the USA is around 97.5% on average.)

Warren Buffett's insurance company GEICO had an amazing 2023 with a combined ratio of just over 90% leading to profits of $3.6 billion.

regards

Howard

https://coverager.com/tesla-insurance-e ... -premiums/

“Tesla hoped that advanced telematics and safer cars with multiple safety aids would cut claims. Unfortunately, all those tech aids are very expensive to repair when damaged, and the company is even facing a class action over claims of over-inflating premiums.”

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us ... 79768.aspx

As always when Tesla enters a new business, everyone notes how badly they are doing & that bankruptcy is inevitable.

Yet the business is growing & for now only exists in a few States.

Bad mouthing Tesla has a poor track record,

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

Howard wrote:Amateurs have enthused about how Tesla would disrupt the car insurance market.

Tesla insurance underwriting loss in 2023 was $30 million on written premiums of just under $500 million. Its combined ratio was around 145%. (A successful insurance company would aim for just under 100%).

It’s easy to grow an insurance operation if your costs are around 50% higher than your premium income.

Sobering news for those who thought Teslas would be good risks and cheap to repair.

Legacy insurers must be smiling. (Their combined ratio in the USA is around 97.5% on average.)

Warren Buffett's insurance company GEICO had an amazing 2023 with a combined ratio of just over 90% leading to profits of $3.6 billion.

regards

Howard

https://coverager.com/tesla-insurance-e ... -premiums/

“Tesla hoped that advanced telematics and safer cars with multiple safety aids would cut claims. Unfortunately, all those tech aids are very expensive to repair when damaged, and the company is even facing a class action over claims of over-inflating premiums.”

https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us ... 79768.aspx

As always when Tesla enters a new business, everyone notes how badly they are doing & that bankruptcy is inevitable.

Yet the business is growing & for now only exists in a few States.

Bad mouthing Tesla has a poor track record,

Regards,

It's not bad mouthing Tesla. They don't seem to understand the insurance business and attract naive support from fans.

Sometimes one just has to face reality as an investor. It's tough out there and one has to deal with facts.

regards

Howard

Howard wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
As always when Tesla enters a new business, everyone notes how badly they are doing & that bankruptcy is inevitable.

Yet the business is growing & for now only exists in a few States.

Bad mouthing Tesla has a poor track record,

Regards,

It's not bad mouthing Tesla. They don't seem to understand the insurance business and attract naive support from fans.

Sometimes one just has to face reality as an investor. It's tough out there and one has to deal with facts.

regards

Howard

How many times were similar things said about Tesla cars?

No body knows the future, but the direction of Tesla insurance is upwards.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

Howard wrote:
It's not bad mouthing Tesla. They don't seem to understand the insurance business and attract naive support from fans.

Sometimes one just has to face reality as an investor. It's tough out there and one has to deal with facts.

regards

Howard

How many times were similar things said about Tesla cars?

No body knows the future, but the direction of Tesla insurance is upwards.

Regards,

Can I check, Ody. Do you still hold shares in Tesla or are you acting as a shill for a company you aren’t investing in?

I’m asking because you have claimed to be a trader in the past.

Your unquestioning support for the company given recent share movements and your rubbishing every competitor of Tesla just makes one wonder?

regards

Howard

FSD driving & doing amazing things (16:31):

https://youtu.be/zs96BKDCDR4?si=JKf6n1RQN1S-f-aF

Regards,

Howard wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:
How many times were similar things said about Tesla cars?

No body knows the future, but the direction of Tesla insurance is upwards.

Regards,

Can I check, Ody. Do you still hold shares in Tesla or are you acting as a shill for a company you aren’t investing in?

I’m asking because you have claimed to be a trader in the past.

Your unquestioning support for the company given recent share movements and your rubbishing every competitor of Tesla just makes one wonder?

regards

Howard

Yes

I have not sold a share in Tesla for ages as it still looks to me to be the best risk reward ratio I have ever seen.

If the FSD video are genuine, it is clear that they have created a super human robot on wheels. Imho that is worth many times the current share price.

Regards,

Tesla share price now more or less back to where it was before the last “terrible” delivery numbers.

Maybe investors are seeing the same FSD video I am seeing & realise where the share price may go.

Regards,

Robo taxi unveil:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/177635145 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

Interesting static fire of super heavy. Not sure what coolant they are using, but seems to be a gas, maybe liquid nitrogen, or am I not understanding what is shown in the short video:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/177641316 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting static fire of super heavy. Not sure what coolant they are using, but seems to be a gas, maybe liquid nitrogen, or am I not understanding what is shown in the short video:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/177641316 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

That's water:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGHeWJIwKpo

RC

ReformedCharacter wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:Interesting static fire of super heavy. Not sure what coolant they are using, but seems to be a gas, maybe liquid nitrogen, or am I not understanding what is shown in the short video:

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/177641316 ... DCpgdbFBxg

Regards,

That's water:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGHeWJIwKpo

RC

Thank you!

Looks really impressive & simple in operation.

There are some naysayers arguing that Starship can’t launch fast enough due to pad damage after every launch, but if this water jet works it should reduce pad damage. I once watched a Shuttle engine test fire at NASA Marshall & that produced a great cloud of steam, so some similar system to this.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:
Thank you!

Looks really impressive & simple in operation.

There are some naysayers arguing that Starship can’t launch fast enough due to pad damage after every launch, but if this water jet works it should reduce pad damage. I once watched a Shuttle engine test fire at NASA Marshall & that produced a great cloud of steam, so some similar system to this.

Regards,

Pad damage seems to have been getting better with each launch, I don't think there was much last time. AIUI Boca Chica will be used for development and testing only, with regular flights launching from Cape Canaveral with at least 2 pads there.

I would very much like to have seen a SSME test firing but I guess you have to be reasonably close to fully appreciate it

RC

Model 3 lasting a long long time (6:47):

https://youtu.be/nWak1GBAPJg?si=tkb34K9v0ozYOVP_

It is amazing how far these cars have gone, not needing new batteries or motors & with good tyre life.

Regards,

27 minutes of Musk explaining what SpaceX will do:

https://youtu.be/OffMED-KXIs?si=aE1_n984ngdN2T21

Regards,

Not exclusively about Tesla FSD but the best video I have seen on the topic and not quite as pessimistic about the technology as the title suggests:

Sorry. Your Car Will Never Drive You Around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DOd4RLNeT4

RC

ReformedCharacter wrote:Not exclusively about Tesla FSD but the best video I have seen on the topic and not quite as pessimistic about the technology as the title suggests:

Sorry. Your Car Will Never Drive You Around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DOd4RLNeT4

RC

He is a long way out of date compared to the latest FSD & his ability to do arithmetic & analyse statistics is challenged.

The idea of having roads that are entirely for AI is a non starter, way too expensive & it is impossible to shut down roads for AI cars without providing means for current users to get about.

He should stick to music & fly rather than driving while extremely tired.

If he bothered to look up the stats he would note how much safer flying is than driving.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:He is a long way out of date compared to the latest FSD & his ability to do arithmetic & analyse statistics is challenged.

The idea of having roads that are entirely for AI is a non starter, way too expensive & it is impossible to shut down roads for AI cars without providing means for current users to get about.

He should stick to music & fly rather than driving while extremely tired.

If he bothered to look up the stats he would note how much safer flying is than driving.

Regards,

You make some fair points although I can't judge the validity of his statistics. I think he makes a valid point that although Tesla's FSD is getting better it is still not good enough. I believe he is probably correct when he criticises the removal of lidar.

I think we can agree that Musk's pronouncements about the progress of FSD have proved to be wildly optimistic, despite the fact that Tesla are doing incredible work towards that goal. My personal opinion as a technically minded but technically unqualified person is that the problem of FSD is just too hard to solve within the foreseeable future. I don't have an axe to grind, I'd love a FSD car.

Also, I think that his comments about roads designed for human drivers, signage for example, is very valid. In many ways trying to create FSD for existing roads is trying to solve the wrong - and much harder - problem. A much easier problem to solve would be one with inter-vehicle communications and roads retrofitted with smart road 'furniture'.

Ideally a future road transport system would benefit from a complete traffic management system with some sort of mesh control system and road pricing according to demand. The ability for a semi-centralised system capable of controlling traffic en-masse would make considerable reductions in the energy required to move from A to B. Less stop\starts, less wear, less pollution, lower journey times and a more pleasant experience in getting from A to B. I don't expect to see this in my lifetime but perhaps in my children's.

RC

ReformedCharacter wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:He is a long way out of date compared to the latest FSD & his ability to do arithmetic & analyse statistics is challenged.

The idea of having roads that are entirely for AI is a non starter, way too expensive & it is impossible to shut down roads for AI cars without providing means for current users to get about.

He should stick to music & fly rather than driving while extremely tired.

If he bothered to look up the stats he would note how much safer flying is than driving.

Regards,

You make some fair points although I can't judge the validity of his statistics. I think he makes a valid point that although Tesla's FSD is getting better it is still not good enough. I believe he is probably correct when he criticises the removal of lidar.

I think we can agree that Musk's pronouncements about the progress of FSD have proved to be wildly optimistic, despite the fact that Tesla are doing incredible work towards that goal. My personal opinion as a technically minded but technically unqualified person is that the problem of FSD is just too hard to solve within the foreseeable future. I don't have an axe to grind, I'd love a FSD car.

Also, I think that his comments about roads designed for human drivers, signage for example, is very valid. In many ways trying to create FSD for existing roads is trying to solve the wrong - and much harder - problem. A much easier problem to solve would be one with inter-vehicle communications and roads retrofitted with smart road 'furniture'.

Ideally a future road transport system would benefit from a complete traffic management system with some sort of mesh control system and road pricing according to demand. The ability for a semi-centralised system capable of controlling traffic en-masse would make considerable reductions in the energy required to move from A to B. Less stop\starts, less wear, less pollution, lower journey times and a more pleasant experience in getting from A to B. I don't expect to see this in my lifetime but perhaps in my children's.

RC

No question that Musk has been wildly optimistic so far re FSD.

If FSD can be made to work, the sooner the better. As of now if one can create something that works on current roads with relatively low cost equipment that will be the fastest way.

Can it be done? After hours & hours watching FSD video with version 12.3 I am convinced that there is either a very wide conspiracy to fake it, or FSD is close to being solved & relentlessly improving. Cars running FSD are doing things that are indistinguishable from a good human driver.

Naysayers are quick to argue that FSD will never be approved, yet if the insurers can see that FSD cuts the amount they have to payout, reduces emergency care & hospital time, they will force it through & raise manual premiums to encourage the use of FSD by as many drivers as possible.

Prior to AlphaGo becoming world Go champion, I dismissed neural nets as an hopeless technology, but after AlphaGo I switched completely to believing that neural nets will be able to do all intellectual human jobs & shortly robots will do many of the manual jobs too.

Regarding accident statistics, Tesla publish all these figures every year & the numbers presented by the musician are wildly inaccurate.

If I am right, we will see FSD in the next year followed by robo taxies & that will change ground transportation forever.

If this happens Tesla equity will rocket, perhaps 10 fold or more.

Regards,