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Musk endeavours

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odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277381

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 2:43 pm

Just for information, I am again out of Tesla, but may re-enter at any moment.

Regards,

Howard
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277389

Postby Howard » January 14th, 2020, 2:55 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:
Ody

You throw out statements about Tesla’s competitors without any factual basis. How can we take you seriously?

I don’t claim to understand the complexities of large company balance sheets, but a little research suggests you may not understand the strength of the BMW balance sheet.

BMW has been building large reserves off the balance sheet. Their accounting seems to be very conservative. The company is one of the largest landowners around Munich, one of the most expensive areas in Germany. Real estate owned by BMW is valued at costs which are years old . BMW owns production and assembly plants in more than 10 countries. Their book value does not represent current land values.

If you look carefully I think you may find that their assets are much larger than at first appear and thus their balance sheet strength may be more than many of their rivals - including Tesla! So unless you can prove otherwise, this is just a baseless allegation.

Maybe you should analyse the reasons for their success in selling half a million electric cars a little more carefully too ;) . Maybe they are exploiting large market niches that other BEV manufacturers aren't reaching?

regards

Howard


There are assets and there is cash.

If BMW want to go after Tesla they are going to have to have their own dedicated battery making and BEV production facilities. This will cost a lot more than the 10 billion Euro they have on their balance sheet and to do this means cuts to their existing production, hurting their cash flow.

If they really want to go after the future their only option will be heavy borrowing and it becomes a difficult negotiation as they are asking for new money to produce alternatives to existing kit, so draining their own cash flow from existing lines to build new lines. They can of course argue that their existing assets are of great value, but that will be laughed at by the bankers who know that existing manufacturing kit has no value once the stuff it was made to produce becomes obsolete.

Also what about labour: Do they lay off a lot of people, or hire more or re-purpose?

This kind of rapid transition between one technology and a new technology is fraught with all kinds of troubles and they have not begun, likely believing that they can continue to turn out what they have been doing and what they planned to do without any change in an industry that is changing very rapidly.

BMW management have a miserable job, not one I would want to deal with, but if they want to be part of a BEV future they will have to start closing production lines and converting them to new product and doing it quickly. However, if they do that to safeguard their future they will hurt the now and upset shareholders who have a similar view to you: If stuff is selling why change for an uncertain future.

Imagine if you were on the BMW board, what would you advise?

I imagine BMW will soon go to the German government and say they need financial help and in the by and by it will likely be provided and it will cause all manner of complications within the EU and with tariffs from overseas markets etc etc.

In the meantime they are on the propaganda front telling all the consumers in the world what kinds of cars they want and that co2 emission isn't a big problem, the fires in Australia and global warming nothing to do with them etc.

Regards,


There are a few problems with your arguments. For example, Tesla’s sales in the USA dropped in the final quarter of 2019 indicating a lack of demand in their home market. BMW sales increased in the USA throughout 2019, finishing with a final surge at the end of the year (to 325,000 cars). We don’t know if this trend will continue but if it does, this indicates that BMW have a profitable niche in the premium sector of the market where BMW outsells Tesla and unlike them, makes a profit on each sale!

In Germany BMW sells a large volume of electric cars, using Panasonic batteries and announced a deal with two further suppliers last year (CATL and Samsung), and, as you know, they have sold more than 250,000 electric cars already. Yes, they are smaller batteries than Tesla use, but they are currently selling in volume and helping to reduce the company's average emissions to EU standards.

You may not agree with this analysis, but if this guy is right, Tesla are going to struggle to achieve growth in sales in 2020.

I Am Forecasting Flat Unit Sales For Tesla In 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins ... 30bef94196

To dismiss his arguments that Tesla is about to experience a no-growth year, you will have to explain why Tesla’s sales growth actually fell back in the USA at the end of last year. And, halfway through January, Tesla’s sales in Norway, Netherlands and Spain have tumbled to just 47 cars! Do you think these markets will recover significantly this year? And we don’t know yet how many cars Tesla will sell in China. This year has started rather slowly. How many cars will Tesla sell in China against tough competition?

Finally, be careful about using the environmental argument, the jury is still out on how environmentally friendly BEVs will prove. We all know that big oil has been a massive polluter, but producing overweight cars with huge batteries for consumers who typically have gas guzzlers as well, in time might not appear quite as environmentally friendly as manufacturing cars with smaller batteries which meet the average consumers’ needs better.

regards

Howard

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277402

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 3:43 pm

Part re-enter and with buy stops over current price to give same holding as yesterday in case price runs again.

Regards,

odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277407

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 3:54 pm

My argument with BMW is that they are selling yesterdays tech as though it was tomorrows.

As on now BMW cars are a lot better for emissions than they used to be but they are not as good as what is possible.

All my historical studies of this kind of disruptive tech has shown that the folks who try to carry on with the older stuff get into very big troubles as people want the new stuff.

With a model 3 I could put in most of the energy I would need to drive it from a 4 kW roof top solar for about 11 months of the year, no petrol or diesel ever needed for the car and I could subscribe to green energy for the times when I don't have solar.

That is a complete game changer compared to one of the non-plug-in or plug-in hybrids and it resonates with many consumers who now want to live a life doing as little harm to the planet as possible.

It seems certain to me that politicians will begin to make any kind of ICE car very unattractive to a purchaser.

In essence I am looking at what is coming as I see it, you are looking at what is here now as you see it.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277408

Postby BobbyD » January 14th, 2020, 3:59 pm

Howard wrote:There are a few problems with your arguments.


I don't think you understand Howard. Not only will BEV's banish ICE from the face of the earth in the next 30 seconds or so, absolutely the only way to play the BEV game is the way Tesla are playing it, which is at least consistent since it is the only way which Tesla can fulfil the prophecy and be the only player left standing in a few years time. There can be only one, apparently.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277425

Postby JamesMuenchen » January 14th, 2020, 4:53 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Just for information, I am again out of Tesla, but may re-enter at any moment.

Regards,

I heard there's a short squeeze on. Did you catch it?

Can anyone explain tesla's moat? It seems to me that the motor is just one component of a car and BEV is much simpler than ICE. why would traditional carmaker be unable to compete?

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277432

Postby odysseus2000 » January 14th, 2020, 5:10 pm

JamesMuenchen wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Just for information, I am again out of Tesla, but may re-enter at any moment.

Regards,

I heard there's a short squeeze on. Did you catch it?

Can anyone explain tesla's moat? It seems to me that the motor is just one component of a car and BEV is much simpler than ICE. why would traditional carmaker be unable to compete?


I caught all the gap up and sold everything very near the days current gap high; re-entry buy stops have mostly not currently triggered.

Anyone can build BEV cars.

Ask Apple and Dyson how easy it is.

Also ask legacy auto why it is taking them so long to catch up with Tesla, currently they are no where near offering better range and better performance.

To understand the Tesla moat requires a lot of work. If you browse this forum most of the arguments have been spelled out several times.

Regards

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277621

Postby odysseus2000 » January 15th, 2020, 1:56 pm

Margins on Chinese made model 3 are 35%:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/12 ... 17312?s=20

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277648

Postby dspp » January 15th, 2020, 3:54 pm

odysseus2000 wrote:Margins on Chinese made model 3 are 35%:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/12 ... 17312?s=20

Regards,


Well spotted. That's better than the average qtly GM% of 22% (q3 2019), and the last model 3 GM I have of 20% (q3 2018).

Good news.

regards, dspp

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277654

Postby BobbyD » January 15th, 2020, 4:12 pm

dspp wrote:
odysseus2000 wrote:Margins on Chinese made model 3 are 35%:

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/12 ... 17312?s=20

Regards,


Well spotted. That's better than the average qtly GM% of 22% (q3 2019), and the last model 3 GM I have of 20% (q3 2018).

Good news.

regards, dspp


Not very well reported though.

Margins on Chinese Model 3, are reputed to be 'as high as 35%' according to a research paper compiled by a company I've never heard of, in a language I can't read, according to some bloke on Twitter...

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277768

Postby BobbyD » January 16th, 2020, 8:18 am

Report of the Electric Vehicle Energy Taskforce: Energising Our Electric Vehicle Transition

- http://www.evenergytaskforce.com/

- http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/assets/reports ... an2020.pdf

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277771

Postby BobbyD » January 16th, 2020, 8:46 am

Engineering icon linked to possible 'secret' electric car project


- https://www.punchline-gloucester.com/ar ... ar-project

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Re: Musk endeavours

#277926

Postby odysseus2000 » January 16th, 2020, 7:30 pm


odysseus2000
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Re: Musk endeavours

#277931

Postby odysseus2000 » January 16th, 2020, 7:44 pm

Stormy weather has brought out more bears, Tesla now most shorted stock again:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1028823046

I love the shorts, best friends of the longs although few realise that.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#278001

Postby BobbyD » January 17th, 2020, 8:14 am

Tesla comes up against black swan.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Verified account

@nntaleb


Elon @elonmusk, your Customer Support at Tesla is even worse than I claimed last time.
It is an insult to your customers.

Image


Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Verified account

@nntaleb


A lot of pple think one has to be pro or anti-Tesla. Life is nuanced!

I love my Tesla, but customer service is terrible. (Used to be great but degraded sharply over the past 2 y. When I bought the car they used to come to you for repairs. No more).

Elon Musk

Verified account

@elonmusk


Replying to @nntaleb
Just saw this today. Tesla refunds in general should be easy to get electronically & certainly through customer service. Will he addressed.


Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Verified account

@nntaleb

Thanks, but It would be a good idea to give equal response to people who do not have as many followers on Twitter. I am not interested in such a refund if other people equally affected don't get fair treatment.





- https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1217471369350348807

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Re: Musk endeavours

#278010

Postby BobbyD » January 17th, 2020, 8:41 am

New Tesla registrations in California nearly halve in fourth quarter: data

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) overall vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the fourth quarter, according to a Dominion Cross-Sell report, which collates data from state motor vehicle records.

The massive drop comes as tax credit for Tesla buyers ended in 2019. It had fallen to $3,750 at the start of the year and had halved to $1,875 in July.

An existing $7,500 U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles (EVs), which allows taxpayers to deduct a part of the cost of buying an electric car, phases out over 15 months once an automaker hits 200,000 cumulative EV sales, which Tesla hit in July 2018.

The report released on Wednesday showed registrations in California, a bellwether market for the electric-car maker, plummeted 46.5% to 13,584 in the quarter ended December 2019, from 25,402 in the same period a year earlier.

Model 3 registrations, which accounted for about three-fourth of the total, halved to 10,694.



- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N

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Re: Musk endeavours

#278019

Postby Meatyfool » January 17th, 2020, 9:07 am

BobbyD wrote:
New Tesla registrations in California nearly halve in fourth quarter: data

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) overall vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the fourth quarter, according to a Dominion Cross-Sell report, which collates data from state motor vehicle records.

The massive drop comes as tax credit for Tesla buyers ended in 2019. It had fallen to $3,750 at the start of the year and had halved to $1,875 in July.

An existing $7,500 U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles (EVs), which allows taxpayers to deduct a part of the cost of buying an electric car, phases out over 15 months once an automaker hits 200,000 cumulative EV sales, which Tesla hit in July 2018.

The report released on Wednesday showed registrations in California, a bellwether market for the electric-car maker, plummeted 46.5% to 13,584 in the quarter ended December 2019, from 25,402 in the same period a year earlier.

Model 3 registrations, which accounted for about three-fourth of the total, halved to 10,694.



- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N



While it doesn't explain a 46% drop, an aeticle on a website I read last night suggests that this report will under-report as it takes reported data very soon after the end of December. A large proportion of Tesla sales tend to happen in the last two weeks of December - too early for the data to be appear in the source used for the quoted article.

Regarding the massive sales for the Netherlands in December, where were the sales cannibalised from? Did Europe's quota get redirected towards the Dutch or did extra imports arrive to account for this pre-known spike?

If the latter then it would explain some of the deficit in that the US could have been supply constrained?

Meatyfool..

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Re: Musk endeavours

#278032

Postby BobbyD » January 17th, 2020, 9:43 am

Meatyfool wrote:Regarding the massive sales for the Netherlands in December, where were the sales cannibalised from? Did Europe's quota get redirected towards the Dutch or did extra imports arrive to account for this pre-known spike?


Model 3 sales in Norway tumbled during the year.

Q1: 17, 792,5322

Q2: 721, 705, 3015

Q3: 309, 650, 2342

Q4: 121, 452, 1251

Mind you it's not really possible to say whether they disrupted potential sales in Norway or just rotated out of a largely satisfied market.

Just over halfway through Jan and I'm seeing 97 Model 3's sold in Norway, but Tesla distro is so bitty as to make that pretty meaningless.

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Re: Musk endeavours

#278041

Postby odysseus2000 » January 17th, 2020, 10:04 am

BobbyD wrote:
New Tesla registrations in California nearly halve in fourth quarter: data

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) overall vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the fourth quarter, according to a Dominion Cross-Sell report, which collates data from state motor vehicle records.

The massive drop comes as tax credit for Tesla buyers ended in 2019. It had fallen to $3,750 at the start of the year and had halved to $1,875 in July.

An existing $7,500 U.S. tax credit for electric vehicles (EVs), which allows taxpayers to deduct a part of the cost of buying an electric car, phases out over 15 months once an automaker hits 200,000 cumulative EV sales, which Tesla hit in July 2018.

The report released on Wednesday showed registrations in California, a bellwether market for the electric-car maker, plummeted 46.5% to 13,584 in the quarter ended December 2019, from 25,402 in the same period a year earlier.

Model 3 registrations, which accounted for about three-fourth of the total, halved to 10,694.



- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N


Registrations lag sales.

Regards,

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Re: Musk endeavours

#278054

Postby dspp » January 17th, 2020, 10:29 am

odysseus2000 wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
New Tesla registrations in California nearly halve in fourth quarter: data

(Reuters) - Tesla Inc’s (TSLA.O) overall vehicle registrations nearly halved in the U.S. state of California during the fourth quarter, according to a Dominion Cross-Sell report, which collates data from state motor vehicle records....

Model 3 registrations, which accounted for about three-fourth of the total, halved to 10,694.



- https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N


Registrations lag sales.

Regards,


1. We know that the actual global sales data were up and that everything that was produced was sold, i.e. there is no stockbuild going on. If you look at the detail it is likely that unsold stocks actually fell. My calc suggests that global inventory fell from 17 days end Q3 to 9 days at end Q4. If so, that is wow !

2. So if any given territory is down, then another is up by at least the corresponding amount.

3. In this particular case it is not clear that the final days of the quarter have yet shown up in the CA registration data, and since CA is the territory that is closest to the Fremont factory that is prioritised for the final sales of the quarter, so that can be a significant effect in the CA market, but the extent to which this is relevant will not be known for another few weeks. Other markets are prioritised earlier in the quarterly logistics cycle and so last month data for them tends to be genuinely low.

4. Tesla shareprice is extremely high, $500+. A lot of the shorters are trying again at this new high price. They are therefore highly motivated to continually run FUD stories at TSLA, as are the legacy dino-juice competitors. For various well-understood reasons that includes mainstream media who also tend to amplify these stories. We should expect a lot more of the same.

regards, dspp


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