The Lemon Fool

Tesla apparently thinking of setting up a base in India:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3615840-t ... ent=link-3

Regards,

Tesla weak after hours following a tweet from Elon:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/musk- ... yptr=yahoo

Regards,

Some details of giga Texas. It will have 3 separate buildings, each over 1 km long:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafac ... usk-video/

Regards,

You may not have come across this article from the Telegraph Business news section today:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ ... ical-ever/

The electric car hype machine: Why investors are more sceptical than ever

A rush of interest in Tesla has led to a wave of other electric car companies seeking to cash in on the hype in the sector
By Olivia Rudgard, US Technology Reporter, San Francisco ; Laurence Dodds, US Technology Reporter, San Francisco and James Cook 22 September 2020 • 6:00am

It will be behind a paywall, but you may be able to get round that with the help of Google.

TJH

tjh290633 wrote:You may not have come across this article from the Telegraph Business news section today:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/ ... ical-ever/

The electric car hype machine: Why investors are more sceptical than ever

A rush of interest in Tesla has led to a wave of other electric car companies seeking to cash in on the hype in the sector
By Olivia Rudgard, US Technology Reporter, San Francisco ; Laurence Dodds, US Technology Reporter, San Francisco and James Cook 22 September 2020 • 6:00am

It will be behind a paywall, but you may be able to get round that with the help of Google.

TJH

Couldn't get the article, but a lot of copy cats is what I expect.

We are in a very similar situation to when Ford started selling lots of cars and then suddenly there were loads and loads of folk who copied his ideas.

In the UK we had dozens of marques, most of which went bust for business and political reasons and then what was left was put into BMC and when it was totally wrecked was sold to the Germans.

I expect something similar although batteries are much more difficult to make than were internal combustion engines so that will slow the copy cats.

Regards,

Tesla weak after hours following a tweet from Elon:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/musk- ... yptr=yahoo

Regards,

The more I think about this the more it seems like he is baiting shorts in.

If this is correct then there will be at least one spectacularly bullish announcement at the event.

Regards,

confirmed 1m vehicles/yr per factory (at least for Shanghai, which is not a huge footprint)
- dspp

Kato Rd pilot is 10GWh

(some pilot, one year ramp)

prod plants 200 GWh/yr

20GWh/yr per newbuild line

Sparks equiv goes from 150 GWh to 1TWH

aim 100 GWh 2022>> 3TWH by 2030

Nevada lithium mines R us

(I think they are beginning to understand earth crust composition)

Function sharing battery / body

55% capex reduction
35% floorspace reduction
==

54% range increase
56% $/kwh reduction
69% capex per gwh reduction



bend that curve

good team dynamics

- dspp

I wonder what it feels like to be a competitor

vs 20 mln vehicles/yr (? 2030)

$25k model 2

(the Golf killer, so ID 3 equiv ........ coming in 2022) (so VW whammed)

oh and fast [expletive deleted] S Plaid .........Lucid dead on blocks 520 mile range and faster ....... available end 2021

QA

cell mfg in berlin

thermal mge for homes is pet project ... hvac .....maybe start working next year ....yackety yack (i agree with him)

CyT volume unknown, 0.6m orders, maybe 250k-300k/yr, for USA spec not global superset spec, int version for others late in smaller form)

(Texas direct sales maybe ....)

50/50 grid/vehicle battery demand long term

model 2 @$25k tips into virtuous cycle in mass market

fundamental constraint is cells, that is why TSLA are (now) entering it and focussed on it, so if they overdo it then maybe other manufacturers can dine off their crumbs

LFP for medium range 300mile ought to become normal, copy the pattern

v2g requires a mains cutoff (no [expletive deleted] sherlock, i.e. Tesla powerwall is hub control)

aiming to stay profitable but push hard on affordability (m2 @$25k etc)

that's all folks

Wow!
Extraordinary improvements, making the batteries part of the structure of the car & the reduction in costs leading to the putative $25k car & at the same time creating the plaid model 3 muscle/race car, all done with reducing environmental impact & lower consumer costs. Very like a 21st century version of what Ford did in improving personal movement at lower cost & transforming lives.

It will be almost impossible for existing ice makers to compete which is great for the air that everyone breathes.

Regards,

Market did not like battery day, Tesla shares off nearly 7% in the after hours market to $395.

This seems a reasonable reaction given that most of what was spoken off will be huge in the next few years, but before then there are no obvious catalysts to support the share price, causing return hungry investors to sell Tesla and move to anything that can likely perform in the short term.

This type of reaction will likely have been expected by the board who may have kept back things for this dead period that could be material so that shorts don't have a complete free fire zone over the next year to 18 months.

As things now stand it looks like the next 12 to 18 months will be a big consolidation period for Tesla the company and a period of flat to weak equity performance, unless they have something hidden ready to be announced. However, once this period is over one can expect investors to flock back to Tesla as their improvements in manufacturing, vehicle construction and much lower costs for battery packs will have very substantial commercial advantages.

Regards,

Battery day a bit of a damp squib then.

I'd be willing to bet that we will not see a $25,000 dollar Tesla in 2022.

John