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Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 12:54 am
by Howard
Electrek is reporting a problem with Tesla MCUs

"NHTSA* is formally asking Tesla to recall over 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over a problem with its media unit (MCU) that can affect many functions inside the vehicles.

The entire issue has been quite a fiasco so far.

Considering there are many important functions that can only be accessed through the touchscreen/MCU in Tesla vehicles, NHTSA was looking into the matter as a potential safety issue, and despite Tesla’s warranty change, the agency was still considering a recall.

Official data released by Tesla to NTHSA showed that the failure rate of the MCU for Model S and Model X was as high as 30% in certain build months.

NHTSA has now officially asked Tesla to recall 158,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over the issue."


So is this a software problem?

Obviously OTA updatess won’t fix it.

Will this be the sort of problem that might hit Model 3s in a year or two?

Having safety features like wipers and headlights controlled by a touchscreen might prove a problem in future years?

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/01/13/nhtsa-as ... cu-fiasco/

*The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is responsible for keeping people safe on America's roadways.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 2:32 am
by BobbyD
Howard wrote:Electrek is reporting a problem with Tesla MCUs

"NHTSA* is formally asking Tesla to recall over 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over a problem with its media unit (MCU) that can affect many functions inside the vehicles.

The entire issue has been quite a fiasco so far.

Considering there are many important functions that can only be accessed through the touchscreen/MCU in Tesla vehicles, NHTSA was looking into the matter as a potential safety issue, and despite Tesla’s warranty change, the agency was still considering a recall.

Official data released by Tesla to NTHSA showed that the failure rate of the MCU for Model S and Model X was as high as 30% in certain build months.

NHTSA has now officially asked Tesla to recall 158,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over the issue."


So is this a software problem?

Obviously OTA updatess won’t fix it.

Will this be the sort of problem that might hit Model 3s in a year or two?

Having safety features like wipers and headlights controlled by a touchscreen might prove a problem in future years?

regards

Howard

https://electrek.co/2021/01/13/nhtsa-as ... cu-fiasco/

*The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is responsible for keeping people safe on America's roadways.


Is this the same problem we were discussing back in October 2019, when Tesla were charging €3000 to fix it, and I suggested to Ody he could make some serious cash doing it for €2000?


viewtopic.php?p=258479#p258479

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 9:37 am
by odysseus2000
Interesting 11.43 minutes commentary by someone who used three satellite dishes and recently got a starlink system:

https://youtu.be/suqCktQwZvo

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 10:34 am
by dspp
BobbyD wrote:Long response lost due to being logged out whilst taking in a food delivery, and I've not got long to recreate it..


Bobby,

I think your FUD about TSLA selfdrive is uncalled for.

More generally I think there is a combination of 'classical' industrial economic competition going on here, combined with more modern 'technology-strategy' competition. As such we have to use both sets of analytical tools / lenses to observe the situation. Also we know that although auto & energy are historically slow clockspeed industries, we also know that tech strategy and network effects can speed up industry clockspeeds speeds to a significant extent, and so we cannot just look back once per year.

Regarding your point about VAG (or any of the legacy auto OEMs) being just as capable of building BEVs as ICE, I'm not sure that necessarily follows. Let us consider a decomposition into some areas:
- product technology : a competitive BEV car is not an ICE car with a few changes. Various analyses I have read of suggest that 80% of the car needs to be done very differently.
- production technology : in the old ICE world the single most core competence was ICE engines & transmission. Now it is batteries, inverters, electric motors, and these are both designed and made in very different ways, meaning that about the only bits of the old ICE factory that are still relevant are the framing shop, the press shop, and the paint shop and the seat shop. Even of these the framing shop must switch from steel to aluminium, and quite a lot of the press shop is being substituted by a casting shop. What is more, though it remains to be seen how widespread the practice becomes, it seems that the cycle is moving back towards deeper vertical integration.
- sales, marketing, service : in order to cut costs and ramp quickly, and retain control, and maximise value of software releases, Tesla have chosen to practically fully internalise the entire S&M&S package. The underlying point is that Tesla do not see a viable value-adding business model for an old-style ICE dealership in a new BEV-world where frequent costly servicing is unnecessary, the OEM can remotely update software, the OEM can remotely monitor performance, and there is little or no value-add in the dealership. If Tesla's view is correct then the legacy ICE who try to work with their dealers are going to find them an encumbrance rather than an advantage.
- you can add into this the charger network, the FSD, and the energy play: all of these not only bring old-style economies of scale and scope, but also bring new-style technology strategy advantages of network effects and ecosystem lock-ins.
- the totatility of these create the possibility that the industry will be radically restructured, with (say) just a few global major OEMs viable at (say) 20m/yr scale and a few local/niche players down in the (say) <0.5m/yr scale, and nothing in between.

I watch with interest, backing the TSLA horse for now, but alert & open to the possibility that it may become correct to take some of my TSLA exposure off the table at some point if evidence accumulates otherwise. Likewise I watch keenly to see if VAG (or any other) can make the switch successfully, but they will have to put the data out in public one way or another to convince me.

regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 10:51 am
by BobbyD
dspp wrote:Bobby,

I think your FUD about TSLA selfdrive is uncalled for.


You are joking?

...or has FUD has evolved to stand for Fact (UnDeniable)?

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 11:15 am
by dspp
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:Bobby,

I think your FUD about TSLA selfdrive is uncalled for.


You are joking?

...or has FUD has evolved to stand for Fact (UnDeniable)?


I'm not joking at all.

When you buy the FSD option you get told what is the status & the plan, and the price reflects that. Which is why the FSD option has increased in price from c.$2k to now c.$10k. What is more in some regulatory areas (UK, EU) the regulator does not allow access to many of the features. It is up to the buyer if they wish to pay for it.

You have only to look at the - many - videos of user experiences to see the progress (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye01dbb ... e=youtu.be as an example).

No-one forces you to buy it.

regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 11:22 am
by BobbyD
dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:Bobby,

I think your FUD about TSLA selfdrive is uncalled for.


You are joking?

...or has FUD has evolved to stand for Fact (UnDeniable)?


I'm not joking at all.

When you buy the FSD option you get told what is the status & the plan, and the price reflects that. Which is why the FSD option has increased in price from c.$2k to now c.$10k. What is more in some regulatory areas (UK, EU) the regulator does not allow access to many of the features. It is up to the buyer if they wish to pay for it.

You have only to look at the - many - videos of user experiences to see the progress (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye01dbb ... e=youtu.be as an example).

No-one forces you to buy it.

regards, dspp


It isn't Full Self Driving.

It is literally called Full Self Driving.

You can not reasonably reconcile your claims with Musk's claims that he expected to have a million robotaxis on the road 14 days ago.

My comment wasn't inaccurate, let alone FUD.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 11:24 am
by dspp
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/cathie- ... -arkx.html

Remains to be seen whether ARKX will hold any SpaceX ......... and whether it would be available in UK.

regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 11:26 am
by dspp
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
You are joking?

...or has FUD has evolved to stand for Fact (UnDeniable)?


I'm not joking at all.

When you buy the FSD option you get told what is the status & the plan, and the price reflects that. Which is why the FSD option has increased in price from c.$2k to now c.$10k. What is more in some regulatory areas (UK, EU) the regulator does not allow access to many of the features. It is up to the buyer if they wish to pay for it.

You have only to look at the - many - videos of user experiences to see the progress (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye01dbb ... e=youtu.be as an example).

No-one forces you to buy it.

regards, dspp


It isn't Full Self Driving.

It is literally called Full Self Driving.

You can not reasonably reconcile your claims with Musk's claims that he expected to have a million robotaxis on the road 14 days ago.

My comment wasn't inaccurate, let alone FUD.


Well, they could call it Autopilot .......

Seriously, if you buy it, what you get is described very carefully. And then when you get in the car you have to go through the accept screens. Hey ho.

regards, dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 11:38 am
by BobbyD
dspp wrote:
BobbyD wrote:
dspp wrote:
I'm not joking at all.

When you buy the FSD option you get told what is the status & the plan, and the price reflects that. Which is why the FSD option has increased in price from c.$2k to now c.$10k. What is more in some regulatory areas (UK, EU) the regulator does not allow access to many of the features. It is up to the buyer if they wish to pay for it.

You have only to look at the - many - videos of user experiences to see the progress (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye01dbb ... e=youtu.be as an example).

No-one forces you to buy it.

regards, dspp


It isn't Full Self Driving.

It is literally called Full Self Driving.

You can not reasonably reconcile your claims with Musk's claims that he expected to have a million robotaxis on the road 14 days ago.

My comment wasn't inaccurate, let alone FUD.


Well, they could call it Autopilot .......

Seriously, if you buy it, what you get is described very carefully. And then when you get in the car you have to go through the accept screens. Hey ho.

regards, dspp


It is sold on the basis that it will be something more than it is now.

That's why Musk keeps messing with the price, and the predictions for when it will leave Beta and become an actual FSD package, playing on people's fear of missing out.

Tesla are very literally charging for a product they do not currently ship.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 1:04 pm
by odysseus2000
dspp
You have only to look at the - many - videos of user experiences to see the progress (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye01dbb ... e=youtu.be as an example).


Impressive the difference between the upgrade and the basic AutoPilot on the same route at very similar times and in winter with snow on the sidewalks.

It probably approaches the full self driving asymptotically, but at some point one expects to see that on average it is better than a human driver. Once this happens, one can expect it to get to 10x better than the average human driver which would be a huge change. In the UK there are about 10 fatalities or serious injuries on the road per day. If this could be reduced to 1 that would be a huge blessing for all road users, especially the ones who would otherwise be dead or seriously injured. Reducing the number of accidents would have very beneficial financial implications as well.

Of course one could wait until one has perfection, but that might be a long time coming and in the meantime perfection would be the enemy of good with all its benefits of reduced human death and injury.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 2:38 pm
by dspp
odysseus2000 wrote:
dspp
You have only to look at the - many - videos of user experiences to see the progress (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye01dbb ... e=youtu.be as an example).


Impressive the difference between the upgrade and the basic AutoPilot on the same route at very similar times and in winter with snow on the sidewalks.

It probably approaches the full self driving asymptotically, but at some point one expects to see that on average it is better than a human driver. Once this happens, one can expect it to get to 10x better than the average human driver which would be a huge change. In the UK there are about 10 fatalities or serious injuries on the road per day. If this could be reduced to 1 that would be a huge blessing for all road users, especially the ones who would otherwise be dead or seriously injured. Reducing the number of accidents would have very beneficial financial implications as well.

Of course one could wait until one has perfection, but that might be a long time coming and in the meantime perfection would be the enemy of good with all its benefits of reduced human death and injury.

Regards,


Ody,
Agree. It is looking very close to being feature-complete for US-use, but I am sure there are features that I haven't tracked that still need to be released as otherwise this milestone would be shouted from the rooftops. They've got the stops in, the lights in, and the left & right turns across intersections in. I'm not sure what else is missing, so really it looks like the march of 9s from here. And it is already making a real-world difference despite what the FUDsters say.

"Q4 2020
In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.45 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.05 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.27 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.*"


https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/VehicleSafetyReport

regards,
dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 3:11 pm
by dspp

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 4:30 pm
by JamesMuenchen
https://electrek.co/2021/01/13/nhtsa-as ... cu-fiasco/
NHTSA is formally asking Tesla to recall over 100,000 Model S and Model X vehicles over a problem with its media unit (MCU) that can affect many functions inside the vehicles.
The entire issue has been quite a fiasco so far.

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 5:21 pm
by odysseus2000
According to Tesla daily, fully self drive Tesla will be used from 2022 in tunnels with no responsible person, till then will have folk ready to take over if FSD goes wrong:

https://youtu.be/IrEcWifqEio

The video also shows a rise in short interest and continues recent discussions on the NIO battery swap options.

Various other titbits too re solar etc.

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 7:43 pm
by odysseus2000
33 Minute video showing how inferior the ID3 is in the cold compared to the Model 3:

https://youtu.be/VBY1KxmqjP8

Regards,

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 8:33 pm
by Howard
Which magazine has tested the ID.3 and the Tesla Model 3. I’d trust their results for typical ranges in UK driving.

For the ID.3

We tested the 58kWh battery model, achieving a range of 208 miles, which is some way below the 263-mile claim. However, if you mostly drive in town at lower speeds, we tested the range as high as 248 miles.
One caveat is that range decreases in cold weather – below 10°C you’re unlikely to exceed 185 miles.


For the Tesla Model 3

The Standard Plus – consumed 19.5kWh per 100km. Tesla claims this model will cover 254 miles between charges, but in our tests we squeezed just 190 miles out of its 50kWh battery.

They describe the testing as:

"Our tests go further than those carried out by other organisations, and because Which? is independent and doesn't accept advertising or freebies, you can trust our reviews to give you the full, honest and impartial truth about every car we test. Every car we review is subjected to more than 100 individual tests in a lab, on a test track, and on real roads – and we really clock up the miles, driving around 500 miles in every car we test."


And, of course if you want a BEV with a longer range than a Tesla 3, Hyundai and Kia BEVs have significantly longer ranges in UK driving conditions.

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 14th, 2021, 10:29 pm
by dspp
Howard wrote:Which magazine has tested the ID.3 and the Tesla Model 3.

regards

Howard


mmmmmm ......... Which ..........mmmmmm ............... Bjorn in Folldal in Norway ......... mmmmmmmm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBY1Kxm ... e=youtu.be

I think I heard him say "we try to find the coldest place to camp in Norway" (-24C)

regards, dspp

Image

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 15th, 2021, 12:30 am
by Howard
dspp wrote:
Howard wrote:Which magazine has tested the ID.3 and the Tesla Model 3.

regards

Howard


mmmmmm ......... Which ..........mmmmmm ............... Bjorn in Folldal in Norway ......... mmmmmmmm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBY1Kxm ... e=youtu.be

I think I heard him say "we try to find the coldest place to camp in Norway" (-24C)

regards, dspp

Image


So this is really useful information? :?

Maybe it's why Tesla has sold only four Model 3s in Norway so far this year?

And their sales dropped significantly last year?

Or have they discovered a new exciting market segment? Mad campers? ;)

regards

Howard

Re: Musk endeavours

Posted: January 15th, 2021, 8:12 am
by odysseus2000
So this is really useful information? :?

Maybe it's why Tesla has sold only four Model 3s in Norway so far this year?

And their sales dropped significantly last year?

Or have they discovered a new exciting market segment? Mad campers? ;)

regards

Howard


It just gives an indication of the technical lead that Tesla have over VW.

The model 3 is substantially more efficient over the ID3 in the cold and although it is possible to sleep over night in the 3 in -25 centigrade degree weather, it is not possible to do so in the id3 as its systems shut down after 1 hour.

You may argue that such advantages mean nothing, but anyone stuck in a blizzard would likely disagree. The model 3 could literally save the life of a vulnerable person such as a young child caught in such a situatuation.

Moreover, it shows the level to which Tesla engineers have refined their offering and the quality of their engineering.

Regards,