The Lemon Fool

Interesting that Mudk has put the Tesla deal on hold:

https://amp.theguardian.com/business/li ... iness-live

From what I gather he has margined Tesla stock to make sure he has the cash available, but has not used any of the margin and Morgan Stanley are going around investors to drum up interest from other investors with various reports from many interested to few, so I don’t know.

Last I looked Twitter was well of it’s pretty market lows. Tesla likely rallies here as either an abandonment or a lower price or other investors would all take the need for margin on this. Margin would hurt Tesla if the stock falls & Musk has to sell to over margin call.

If it is established that Twitter mansgement have given false figures they are likely heading to the slammer & bankrupted by investors who have hurt by this and/or if Musk renegotiates a lower price.

Regards,

Tesla raising super charger fees, more income & more folk wanting their own roof too solar:

https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/statu ... jxLT9VMMZw

Regards,

After 30 minutes, Twitter down over 10%, Tesla up over 5%.

Regards,

Hallucigenia wrote:He's using sales of TSLA and loans secured against it to finance the Twitter bid.

...or is he using a tilt at Twitter to 'explain' dumping yet more Tesla stock, before retreating to the sidelines to count his pile of filthy lucre?

odysseus2000 wrote:If it is established that Twitter mansgement have given false figures they are likely heading to the slammer & bankrupted by investors who have hurt by this and/or if Musk renegotiates a lower price.

What Twitter actually said:

We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the first quarter of 2022 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated.

If they have knowingly given false figures, yes they could be in trouble. If they have made a good faith effort to estimate them and were wrong, no.

Either way, this isn't a sudden shock that has caused Musk to question the deal, lets not pretend like anyone believes it is.

The weasel words from Twitter management are:

we applied significant judgement

If this turns out to have been not what a statistician would call reasonable then Twitter board are in trouble.

Regards

44 minutes of Elon explaining many things about Starbase as he guides the Everyday Astronaught about Star base:

https://youtu.be/3Ux6B3bvO0w

Regards,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61472388

The head of Twitter has hit back after Elon Musk said his $44bn deal to buy the platform was "on hold" while he sought details about fake accounts.

In a series of tweets, Parag Agrawal defended the firm's estimates that spam accounts were less than 5% of users.

Mr Musk responded with a poo emoji, later repeating his claim that Twitter was underestimating the figure.

Classy.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said that a major fall in Tesla shares- which were critical to Mr Musk's financing of the deal - and widermarket declines have caused Mr Musk to get "cold feet".

"The bot issue at the end of the day was known... and feels more to us like the 'dog ate the homework' excuse to bail on the Twitter deal or talk down a lower price," he said.

This is not going well for Twitter’s board. If the ascertains are correct, it is highly probable that Twitter board will be sued & they end up in the slammer;

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/152 ... 1Uc6CADD8Q

Regards,

It isn't going well for Twitter's board because a toddler with billions of dollars has decided to screw with them for fun.

murraypaul wrote:It isn't going well for Twitter's board because a toddler with billions of dollars has decided to screw with them for fun.

Personally I think the world would be a better place with more such 'toddlers'.

RC

odysseus2000 wrote:This is not going well for Twitter’s board. If the ascertains are correct, it is highly probable that Twitter board will be sued & they end up in the slammer;

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/152 ... 1Uc6CADD8Q

Regards,

The estimate was based on a sample of 100 accounts, as Musk disclosed in breach of an NDA. Anybody putting any faith in that figure has only themselves to blame.

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:This is not going well for Twitter’s board. If the ascertains are correct, it is highly probable that Twitter board will be sued & they end up in the slammer;

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/152 ... 1Uc6CADD8Q

Regards,

The estimate was based on a sample of 100 accounts, as Musk disclosed in breach of an NDA. Anybody putting any faith in that figure has only themselves to blame.

Exactly! Twitter board disclosing numbers with such poor statistics have only themselves to blame!

Regards,

Speaking of unreliable figures

Musk said this week during the All-in Summit:

The Full Self-Driving Beta at this point can very often take you with zero intervention across the Bay Area from San Jose to Marin through complex traffic. It’s really quite sophisticated. I invited anyone to join the Beta or look at the videos of those in the beta. We got over 100,000 in the beta, so it’s not tiny, and we will be expanding that to probably 1 million people by the end of the year.

- https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/tesla-1- ... -fsd-beta/

BobbyD wrote:Speaking of unreliable figures

Musk said this week during the All-in Summit:

The Full Self-Driving Beta at this point can very often take you with zero intervention across the Bay Area from San Jose to Marin through complex traffic. It’s really quite sophisticated. I invited anyone to join the Beta or look at the videos of those in the beta. We got over 100,000 in the beta, so it’s not tiny, and we will be expanding that to probably 1 million people by the end of the year.

- https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/tesla-1- ... -fsd-beta/

100,000 users with no significant incidents does not seem to be unreliable figures & expanding to 1 million indicates confidence in the AI & genuine shift towards robotic driving exceeding the safety of human driving.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:Speaking of unreliable figures

Musk said this week during the All-in Summit:

The Full Self-Driving Beta at this point can very often take you with zero intervention across the Bay Area from San Jose to Marin through complex traffic. It’s really quite sophisticated. I invited anyone to join the Beta or look at the videos of those in the beta. We got over 100,000 in the beta, so it’s not tiny, and we will be expanding that to probably 1 million people by the end of the year.

- https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/tesla-1- ... -fsd-beta/

100,000 users with no significant incidents does not seem to be unreliable figures & expanding to 1 million indicates confidence in the AI & genuine shift towards robotic driving exceeding the safety of human driving.

Regards,

How many people do you think have bought FSD, and what do you think the current uptake rate is?

Very interesting Elon Musk interview( 1hr 26 mins):

https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/stat ... 1SRvwK0IIg

Regards,

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:Speaking of unreliable figures

Musk said this week during the All-in Summit:

The Full Self-Driving Beta at this point can very often take you with zero intervention across the Bay Area from San Jose to Marin through complex traffic. It’s really quite sophisticated. I invited anyone to join the Beta or look at the videos of those in the beta. We got over 100,000 in the beta, so it’s not tiny, and we will be expanding that to probably 1 million people by the end of the year.

- https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/tesla-1- ... -fsd-beta/

100,000 users with no significant incidents does not seem to be unreliable figures & expanding to 1 million indicates confidence in the AI & genuine shift towards robotic driving exceeding the safety of human driving.

Regards,

How many people do you think have bought FSD, and what do you think the current uptake rate is?

According to these guys 150,000 folk have paid for fsd, with 60,000 in the current program:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cleantechn ... art-1/amp/

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:

BobbyD wrote:Speaking of unreliable figures

Musk said this week during the All-in Summit:

The Full Self-Driving Beta at this point can very often take you with zero intervention across the Bay Area from San Jose to Marin through complex traffic. It’s really quite sophisticated. I invited anyone to join the Beta or look at the videos of those in the beta. We got over 100,000 in the beta, so it’s not tiny, and we will be expanding that to probably 1 million people by the end of the year.

- https://electrek.co/2022/05/17/tesla-1- ... -fsd-beta/

100,000 users with no significant incidents does not seem to be unreliable figures & expanding to 1 million indicates confidence in the AI & genuine shift towards robotic driving exceeding the safety of human driving.

Regards,

How many people do you think have bought FSD, and what do you think the current uptake rate is?

According to these guys 150,000 folk have paid for fsd, with 60,000 in the current program:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/cleantechn ... art-1/amp/

Regards,

...and the last time we saw an uptake figure it was about 8%, and falling precipitously, so expanding beta to probably 1 million people in 7 months time seems 'optimistic'.

BobbyD


...and the last time we saw an uptake figure it was about 8%, and falling precipitously, so expanding beta to probably 1 million people in 7 months time seems 'optimistic'.

Most Tesla cars over the last few years have the fsd hardware. It is possible to get fsd by subscription which is how I imagine one could get many more users, especially if it was offered at a discount to drivers who have good safety scores.

Regards,