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Crypto Bubble

Any other investment discussions eg. peer to peer lending
TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#416239

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » May 30th, 2021, 3:11 pm

NotSure wrote:p.s. what happened to 3? :)

Hi NS,

Sorry - I was typing in a hurry! I'd only intended to write 3 points. I rarely post to TLF these days. I appreciate we can consider down and upsides to any investment. I only wrote my post really as an epitaph to this thread, which seemingly only serves as an echo chamber for antagonists.

I'm still keen to post infrequently, on other topics but not on crypto. There several other topics, where TLF also have a lack of any positive energy. Software and Tech is another one. I posted this 4 weeks ago:

viewtopic.php?f=93&t=29243

about a huge, very interesting firm. And hardly anyone bit. I'm curious about any other decent forums, may try this

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/

some time.

Matt

cockamamiephe
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#425403

Postby cockamamiephe » July 7th, 2021, 3:08 am

Cryptocurrency is our future. I think in near future there won,t be any kind of money in our hands. Everything will be virtually like cryptocurrency. :)

ursaminortaur
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#425466

Postby ursaminortaur » July 7th, 2021, 10:35 am

cockamamiephe wrote:Cryptocurrency is our future. I think in near future there won,t be any kind of money in our hands. Everything will be virtually like cryptocurrency. :)


Most transactions are already carried out virtually/digitally. Every few years the government floats the idea that they will get rid of cash and cheques in the near future but then is forced to rollback on the idea. That doesn't though mean that those virtual/digital transactions will switch to using cryptocurrencies rather than continuing to use the current government backed currencies.

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#425583

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 7th, 2021, 3:33 pm

I decided that it was only right and proper if I updated you folks with my recent experiences/thoughts on Crypto currency and investments. Well, I sold out of my very small RIOT blockchain holding at a 37% loss the other week (about £500 lost). I had purchased the RIOT stock at about $50/share IIRC and this was close to the top of the 2021 H1 BTC peak. Furthermore I didn't spend long enough researching the firm, or critically analysing the situation.

I do still believe that there is a future to BTC (a value indeed). But my sale was motivated by several fronts:

1. Whilst I could have waited for RIOT to recover, I adher strongly to notion of opportunity cost. IOW whilst I could see a scenario where I wait for recovery their SP, I could alternatively be using the money better in various other stocks whose behaviour I find more predictable.

What I failed to appreciate at the time of purchase, and I now believe this to be very significant, and that's that continual inflows (sorry GoSeigen I know that you hate the F word) late 2020 and 2021 were driven by the US stimulus checks, landing on the laps of people caught up in the hype. However, now the stimulus checks (I think) will stop, and a slightly tighter regime will follow. Hence I don't see retail being as bullish in BTC or other cryptos.

Furthermore I started to find it very irritating how Mr Musk was (IMHO) manipulating the scene with his utterances. I do believe however that eventually his influence in these matters will dwindle.... but I'm not currently interesting in following that.

2. The second thing, and equally significant that put me off, was that in buying RIOT I stepped outside of my usual comfort zone of applying at least somekind of fundamental analysis to the stock, i.e. an earnings (or projection of) multiple or DCF analysis.

Whilst I do believe a DCF analysis on RIOT would be possible, it would all be underpinned by the value of a coin of BTC, which I find an impossible price to fix.

Personally I believe that BTC does have a value, my problem is whether that value is $0.34 or $34,000 per coin. I believe its value relates to firstly the fixture of its supply and presumably the immense security (I guess?) built in to the BlockChain. However I guess one's BTC holding is probably only as safe as ones digital wallet. What makes me consider the strength and hence implied "value" of the security aspect of the BTC/BlockChain is when I compare it to the 2007 Northern Rock bank run. I try to imagine, how things would have turned out if financial bodies hadn't been able to sure up the cash reserves of Northern Rock. In thought experiments I contemplate how possibly in similar future scenarios (some where in time and location) people could potentially lose all their local currency from the High Street bank, but have the contents of their digital wallets intact. My assumption is that it is these imagined "benefits" which originally made people "assume some kind of value to BTC" once upon a time.

So there you go. I still believe the BTC will go on, whilst I'm less sure of things like Ether and Dogecoin since they have unlimited supply. I too, have considered the Tulip explanation, but having researched that very shortlived historical event (and even read a related fiction book on the subject!), I see many significant differences.

Matt

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#435137

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 16th, 2021, 1:23 pm

Gotta say, the way that BTC has rallied by 50% since I sold my RIOT blockchain holding is absolutely superb - not!

:lol:

1nvest
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#437383

Postby 1nvest » August 25th, 2021, 6:33 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Furthermore I started to find it very irritating how Mr Musk was (IMHO) manipulating the scene with his utterances. I do believe however that eventually his influence in these matters will dwindle.... but I'm not currently interesting in following that.
.
.
Personally I believe that BTC does have a value, my problem is whether that value is $0.34 or $34,000 per coin. I believe its value relates to firstly the fixture of its supply and presumably the immense security (I guess?) built in to the BlockChain.

It's scarcity is virtual, 21 million bitcoins max ... maybe, maybe not.

It's security is dubious, 100's of millions have been stolen/hacked. It's based on code and all code have bugs, where some clever clogs will find vulnerabilities.

It's secrecy = unregulated. For it to become established it will require regulation, and once regulated it likely will also be pegged, perhaps to the US$, no different to cash and as such not provide the gold like inverse/no correlations that many suggest it will.

The current/recent rises are simply bets. 1% or less of corporate cash getting involved where it could 10x or could totally fail. Speculative bets, akin to Penny stock bets.

I hold 0% as I also see that as its mid/longer term value. But it could still 10x between now and then.

AWOL
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#437409

Postby AWOL » August 25th, 2021, 8:25 pm

Bitcoin like all fiat currencies has the value that people place on it. Unlike government backed currencies it is not a stable store of value which means it is not really money. It also one is restricted as to what can be purchased with it. Ultimately I think the digital currency winners will be those that become much more like the mainstream currencies this will force some transparency, increased traceability, and other characteristics that the criminals and enthusiasts will hate. Right now Cryptocurrency's are generally pretty unethical due to their widespread use in money laundering, black market activities, and their environmental costs.

In the end, just like governments can interfere with our plans for paper money they can use the law to restrict or even outlaw Crypto. Remember it was illegal for US citizens to trade gold after the end of the gold standard.

This doesn't mean that it's volatility cannot be capitalized upon if one is brave enough. I'd sooner rely on gold.

Fluke
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#437927

Postby Fluke » August 27th, 2021, 10:29 pm

1nvest wrote:It's security is dubious, 100's of millions have been stolen/hacked. It's based on code and all code have bugs, where some clever clogs will find vulnerabilities.

The biggest heist to date happened a couple of weeks ago, a crypto finance company called Poly Network had $600m stolen, in 3 different crypto currencies.

After a twitter exchange the money was returned minus a $500,000 "reward" for helping the company tighten up its security. Or maybe it was a ransom.

Why this wasn't a much bigger story, bigger than any bank robbery by a mile, says everything about the crazy world of crypto.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58163917

Similar attacks have happened to several other services in the last 12 months. These include:

Yearn Finance, which had $11m stolen by hackers in February;
Alpha Finance, which had $37m stolen in the same month;
and Meerkat Finance, which was drained of $32m by hackers in March.

1nvest
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#437974

Postby 1nvest » August 28th, 2021, 2:51 am

Maybe banks love it, as the massively expanding network of hackers targeting crypto currency have a easier and potentially more rewarding new target. If/when the value rises so will the frequency and size of thefts, of that I have no doubt.

Itsallaguess
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#440431

Postby Itsallaguess » September 7th, 2021, 7:24 pm

From today's Guardian -

On the day El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender, its president spent the morning providing technical support from his Twitter account after the digital wallet used for transactions was deactivated.

The country’s Chivo wallet – which offers $30 worth of bitcoin free for local users – launched at midnight, but five hours later was disconnected due to a lack of server capacity. Seemingly unfazed, President Nayib Bukele asked for patience, announced that the government had purchased an additional 150 bitcoins, bringing the total holdings to 550 ($26m). Then he retweeted a US bitcoin journalist who had successfully paid for his McDonald’s breakfast using the cryptocurrency.

At one point, Bukele tweeted: “Those of you who have downloaded @chivowallet and are still not registered, can you do us the favour of trying to register and put in the comments if there is any error or if the process works well?”

Meanwhile, the value of bitcoin plummeted early on Tuesday, from more than $52,000 per coin to $42,000, before recovering about half of that loss, in an example of the volatility that continues to beset the currency.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/07/el-salvador-bitcoin-experiment-nayib-bukele

It seems to be a particularly rough day on the crypto exchanges today -

https://i.imgur.com/yCfcuCZ.png

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

pje16
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#440896

Postby pje16 » September 9th, 2021, 10:36 am


GoSeigen
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#441170

Postby GoSeigen » September 10th, 2021, 9:06 am



The whole El Salvador bitcoin thing is a sick joke. Bitcoin will never be the sole currency there; the best they might manage is some sort of derivative -- so really no different to banking as it's always been.

GS

feder1
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#441763

Postby feder1 » September 13th, 2021, 6:15 am

News.Bitcoin.com

This site has been always very busy with lots of news on crypto including scams and robbery. The articles would change several times a day.

However, the site has been dormant for several days.

Has the editor done a bunk, been kidnapped or otherwise what could have happened?

DAK?

pje16
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#441764

Postby pje16 » September 13th, 2021, 6:21 am

I loaded it (for the first time)
It took a while to load (so long that I thought it was down)
The main article (Ukraine Adopts Law ‘On Virtual Assets’ to Regulate Crypto Mark) says posted 4 hours ago - oh hold on when you open it it says 4 DAYS ago

feder1
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#441973

Postby feder1 » September 13th, 2021, 7:27 pm

The news.bitcoin.com site down might be to do with the breaking news of the fake Walmart report pumping crypto.

It,s shocking.

feder1
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#441981

Postby feder1 » September 13th, 2021, 8:07 pm

News.bitcoin.com site is now up!

Itsallaguess
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Re: Crypto Bubble

#445061

Postby Itsallaguess » September 24th, 2021, 2:59 pm

From the BBC -

China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal -

China's central bank has announced that all transactions of crypto-currencies are illegal, effectively banning digital tokens such as Bitcoin.

"Virtual currency-related business activities are illegal financial activities," the People's Bank of China said, warning it "seriously endangers the safety of people's assets".

China is one of the world's largest crypto-currency markets.

Fluctuations there often impact the global price of crypto-currencies.

The price of Bitcoin fell by more than $2,000 (£1,460) in the wake of the Chinese announcement.

It is the latest in China's national crackdown on what it sees as a volatile, speculative investment at best - and a way to launder money at worst.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58678907

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


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