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Matched Betting

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redsturgeon
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Re: Matched Betting

#325877

Postby redsturgeon » July 13th, 2020, 7:09 pm

kempiejon wrote:
Have you had any luck with finding actual arbitrage matched bets with a worthwhile profit? If you've cleared £350 of bonuses you can take back your initial stake and use the bonus money as stake money and you'll be risk free. Arbitrage I found very time consuming, without bonuses, just arb, you get a percent or less so to make money the size of the pot matters.


Not really looked for actual arbitrage opportunities, as you say it's just going to be squeezing the odd percent so not really worth it.

I have been clearing my bookmaker accounts as I've been going.

John

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Re: Matched Betting

#325965

Postby dealtn » July 14th, 2020, 9:27 am

redsturgeon wrote:
kempiejon wrote:
Have you had any luck with finding actual arbitrage matched bets with a worthwhile profit? If you've cleared £350 of bonuses you can take back your initial stake and use the bonus money as stake money and you'll be risk free. Arbitrage I found very time consuming, without bonuses, just arb, you get a percent or less so to make money the size of the pot matters.


Not really looked for actual arbitrage opportunities, as you say it's just going to be squeezing the odd percent so not really worth it.

I have been clearing my bookmaker accounts as I've been going.

John


So it's been about 3 weeks(?).

How many bookmaker accounts have you opened? How many are in profit? How many have closed their business to you?

I am interested in how quickly a bookmaker can identify "you" and distinguish between a "normal punter" and how long before they take action.

Maybe it's too early to analyse, but that to me is the crux of how long, and how much effort, to "invest" in such an enterprise.

redsturgeon
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Re: Matched Betting

#325999

Postby redsturgeon » July 14th, 2020, 10:35 am

dealtn wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
kempiejon wrote:
Have you had any luck with finding actual arbitrage matched bets with a worthwhile profit? If you've cleared £350 of bonuses you can take back your initial stake and use the bonus money as stake money and you'll be risk free. Arbitrage I found very time consuming, without bonuses, just arb, you get a percent or less so to make money the size of the pot matters.


Not really looked for actual arbitrage opportunities, as you say it's just going to be squeezing the odd percent so not really worth it.

I have been clearing my bookmaker accounts as I've been going.

John


So it's been about 3 weeks(?).

How many bookmaker accounts have you opened? How many are in profit? How many have closed their business to you?

I am interested in how quickly a bookmaker can identify "you" and distinguish between a "normal punter" and how long before they take action.

Maybe it's too early to analyse, but that to me is the crux of how long, and how much effort, to "invest" in such an enterprise.


23 accounts opened
All bets are profitable (by definition) some involve a loss to the bookie but a win on the exchange and vice versa.
It is unlikely that any bookmaker will close their business to you for matched betting but they will stop you taking part in offers (gubbing).
It is, IMHO having done this, only really worth a one off exercise to mop up the "welcome offers", the so called "reload offers" are less lucrative.
For the welcome offers it is unlikely that any bookie can act quickly enough to stop you taking part.

I have been "gubbed" by one bookie, IMO this was due to being unluckily lucky...I will explain.
The best result from the gubbing POV is to lose your bookie bet each time and win the exchange lay bet because the exchanges don't care who wins, they just take their rake while for the bookies every win for you is a loss for them.
With the one bookie I was gubbed by I had won all three of the first bets I had placed with them, two at quite long odds...I unfortunately got too lucky!

There are various strategies to make you not look like a matched better, you can deposit more than the minimum required, you can make the occasional "mug" bet (which of course you lay off) and you can avoid betting on obscure events just because the odds are attractive for matched betting.

For me this has been an interesting and painless exercise and I will end up about £400 up for a few hours on the computer. I will probably also look at the casino site offers which are supposed to be even easier to exploit, we shall see.

For the record I only really started this to help my daughter earn some money while she is furloughed and staying with us, she was getting bored! I has also proved a pleasant father/daughter bonding exercise.

Also for the record, I used the plan provided by Team Profit, who are free to join and provide all the information necessary to start from a point of no knowledge. I have no connection with them but found their website invaluable, trying to do this without it would have been much more difficult.

John

edit for accuracy: I said above "all bets are profitable" actually this should read "all welcome offers are profitable" since the first trigger bet which you lay off will lose you a few pence but that qualifies you for the £5-100 offers which are guaranteed profitable.

dealtn
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Re: Matched Betting

#326001

Postby dealtn » July 14th, 2020, 10:46 am

redsturgeon wrote:
dealtn wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:
Not really looked for actual arbitrage opportunities, as you say it's just going to be squeezing the odd percent so not really worth it.

I have been clearing my bookmaker accounts as I've been going.

John


So it's been about 3 weeks(?).

How many bookmaker accounts have you opened? How many are in profit? How many have closed their business to you?

I am interested in how quickly a bookmaker can identify "you" and distinguish between a "normal punter" and how long before they take action.

Maybe it's too early to analyse, but that to me is the crux of how long, and how much effort, to "invest" in such an enterprise.


23 accounts opened
All bets are profitable (by definition) some involve a loss to the bookie but a win on the exchange and vice versa.
It is unlikely that any bookmaker will close their business to you for matched betting but they will stop you taking part in offers (gubbing).
It is, IMHO having done this, only really worth a one off exercise to mop up the "welcome offers", the so called "reload offers" are less lucrative.
For the welcome offers it is unlikely that any bookie can act quickly enough to stop you taking part.

I have been "gubbed" by one bookie, IMO this was due to being unluckily lucky...I will explain.
The best result from the gubbing POV is to lose your bookie bet each time and win the exchange lay bet because the exchanges don't care who wins, they just take their rake while for the bookies every win for you is a loss for them.
With the one bookie I was gubbed by I had won all three of the first bets I had placed with them, two at quite long odds...I unfortunately got too lucky!

There are various strategies to make you not look like a matched better, you can deposit more than the minimum required, you can make the occasional "mug" bet (which of course you lay off) and you can avoid betting on obscure events just because the odds are attractive for matched betting.

For me this has been an interesting and painless exercise and I will end up about £400 up for a few hours on the computer. I will probably also look at the casino site offers which are supposed to be even easier to exploit, we shall see.

For the record I only really started this to help my daughter earn some money while she is furloughed and staying with us, she was getting bored! I has also proved a pleasant father/daughter bonding exercise.

Also for the record, I used the plan provided by Team Profit, who are free to join and provide all the information necessary to start from a point of no knowledge. I have no connection with them but found their website invaluable, trying to do this without it would have been much more difficult.

John


Well all "combination" bets are profitable (from your perspective), not all bets, and when seen from the eyes of the bookmaker they only see one part of that combination.

It isn't unlikely a bookmaker will close an account to you due to match betting, it happens. It is also possible they close an account to you due to profitability, and also due to "suspicious activity" (such as betting on obscure events like you describe). I have had "relationships" closed by bookmakers (described as such as this was all pre-internet and branches were the way to bet - showing how long ago this was - when you had to find alternative branches where you were unknown!).

Genuinely interesting. Disclosure ex-employee of a bookmaker, and ex-gambler (although some would take offence at such a label!).

redsturgeon
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Re: Matched Betting

#326005

Postby redsturgeon » July 14th, 2020, 11:08 am

dealtn wrote:
Well all "combination" bets are profitable (from your perspective), not all bets, and when seen from the eyes of the bookmaker they only see one part of that combination.

It isn't unlikely a bookmaker will close an account to you due to match betting, it happens. It is also possible they close an account to you due to profitability, and also due to "suspicious activity" (such as betting on obscure events like you describe). I have had "relationships" closed by bookmakers (described as such as this was all pre-internet and branches were the way to bet - showing how long ago this was - when you had to find alternative branches where you were unknown!).

Genuinely interesting. Disclosure ex-employee of a bookmaker, and ex-gambler (although some would take offence at such a label!).



Very interested to hear the POV of someone who is much more of an expert in bookies than I and I am happy you found my short foray into this world interesting. I am not much of a bookie expert but have spent many years playing cards, poker and previously blackjack when it was possible to win by counting cards, so I am a gambler, but one who likes the odds in my favour.

When I say it is unlikely that you would be closed down for match betting that is because I believe that the bookies these days will actually leave your account open but just stop you using any offers, as a matched better that renders the account useless to you anyway.

I think that an experienced gambler who is profitable over the long term is a different animal altogether and I agree the bookies will certainly aim to close those people down.

John

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Re: Matched Betting

#635144

Postby Twitterpane » December 19th, 2023, 10:07 pm

Your point about match betting and how bookies might now leave accounts open but restrict offers is spot-on. The evolving landscape and tactics keep things interesting for sure. And your background in cards and poker gives a unique perspective on playing the odds.

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Re: Matched Betting

#636973

Postby ThinkingAlec » December 29th, 2023, 8:03 pm

My two sons have been into matched betting for more than a two years. They are well organised, have a room full of laptops and phones and lots of “gnomes” (folks who offer up their identity in exchange for a share - usually 25%). It has all the features of a regular racket, and they do it full time. It earns them the typical middle-aged teacher’s or nurse’s wages - tax free. I have watched with some level of bemusement mixed with occasional parental concern. I’d hate to see my sons disappear down the gambling addiction rabbit hole - which is one of the risks. But perhaps the most unnerving thing is the fact that they are heading into their 30s on a Pinocchio-like existence that takes as much time and effort as a normal job, contributes nothing and doesn’t really earn much more than a slightly above average wage. There is also a mental game when you’re on a free ride with a mangy flea ridden dog (which the gambling industry most certainly is), and match betting does not seem a good spot to be in for earning extra money whilst maintaining a happy sense of self. I started at the toughest end of the socio-economic scale and have a good 40 years of investment experience behind me. I can speak from long personal experience: there are much better ways of getting ahead financially than reverse scamming the bookies.

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Re: Matched Betting

#637064

Postby Adamski » December 30th, 2023, 12:13 pm

ThinkingAlec wrote:.


Yes, I was tempted to try match betting, back when it was more profitable - but the risk that put me off was the risk of addiction. Obviously the winners in all this are the bookies. Amjust an idea, you could suggest they apply for a professional job at a bookmakers if you live near one of their head offices. They are big employers these days. They sound clever, and It could ease them back into the real world.

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Re: Matched Betting

#637461

Postby flyer61 » January 1st, 2024, 12:22 pm

My daughter tells me she made £23000 in 2023 on whatever it is she does with betting.....

My bank account has more comings and goings than Kings Cross! All done off a laptop with an encyclopedic knowledge of odds and value betting.

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Re: Matched Betting

#637557

Postby CliffEdge » January 1st, 2024, 10:01 pm

flyer61 wrote:My daughter tells me she made £23000 in 2023 on whatever it is she does with betting.....

My bank account has more comings and goings than Kings Cross! All done off a laptop with an encyclopedic knowledge of odds and value betting.


Your bank account?

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Re: Matched Betting

#637591

Postby flyer61 » January 2nd, 2024, 8:31 am

Yes, the bookies cut accounts very quickly if they find you betting on winners :D :D :D

So it is very much a family and friends effort.

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Re: Matched Betting

#637749

Postby CliffEdge » January 2nd, 2024, 7:23 pm

flyer61 wrote:Yes, the bookies cut accounts very quickly if they find you betting on winners :D :D :D

So it is very much a family and friends effort.

No way a gambler would get access to my bank account if I could avoid it.


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