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Boring Premium Bonds

Any other investment discussions eg. peer to peer lending
bobsmydog
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Boring Premium Bonds

#205628

Postby bobsmydog » March 5th, 2019, 10:00 am

Ok, so how random does this look on my 50K max? Exactly 3 x £25 prizes every other month with zero prizes the other months.

This has become so predictably boring that I have closed my account today.

I know random number tables don't look particularly random but these prizes look less random than random number tables! Too boring.

Watis
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205635

Postby Watis » March 5th, 2019, 10:23 am

Too late, then, to see if the funky new processor yields a different pattern of results.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47400060

Watis

XFool
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205741

Postby XFool » March 5th, 2019, 5:50 pm

bobsmydog wrote:Ok, so how random does this look on my 50K max? Exactly 3 x £25 prizes every other month with zero prizes the other months.

Yep! Looks like random to me. ;)

That is, looks like 'real' random as opposed to 'random' as envisaged by many, whereby you obviously couldn't possibly get a run like that.
As a matter of interest, how long has this run been? If you say every month for the past ten years I might get interested!

bobsmydog wrote:This has become so predictably boring that I have closed my account today.

Sounds more reliable that boring to me?

bobsmydog wrote:I know random number tables don't look particularly random but these prizes look less random than random number tables! Too boring.

I'd have thought little could be more boring than tables of random numbers. :)

XFool
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205744

Postby XFool » March 5th, 2019, 6:02 pm

Watis wrote:Too late, then, to see if the funky new processor yields a different pattern of results.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47400060

Regarding that photo of Harry Fensom in the BBC article:

1. Why has Harry Fensom got cotton wool in his ears?

2. I fell to thinking, surely there must have been a way, in principal, of generating random numbers using his moustache?

3. Pretty sure that's an AVO 7 rather than an AVO 8.

4. On a more personal note, I wonder what lab that was in?

AleisterCrowley
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205750

Postby AleisterCrowley » March 5th, 2019, 6:45 pm

Definitely an AVO

That's proper electronics - sort of thing the Doctor (probably Troughton or Pertwee) would be working on in his lab at UNIT HQ

(suspect lab in photo is PO Dollis Hill as per text)

Mike88
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205755

Postby Mike88 » March 5th, 2019, 7:13 pm

For me holding Premium Bonds is a question of hope over expectation. The princely sum of £75 in 4 years on an £18000 holding is a pathetic return but I can't summon up the courage to dispose of mine.

Watis
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205758

Postby Watis » March 5th, 2019, 7:39 pm

Mike88 wrote:For me holding Premium Bonds is a question of hope over expectation. The princely sum of £75 in 4 years on an £18000 holding is a pathetic return but I can't summon up the courage to dispose of mine.


I get at least that much annually from a somewhat smaller holding.

I guess that's randomness for you.

Watis

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205760

Postby PinkDalek » March 5th, 2019, 7:48 pm

Watis wrote:
Mike88 wrote:For me holding Premium Bonds is a question of hope over expectation. The princely sum of £75 in 4 years on an £18000 holding is a pathetic return but I can't summon up the courage to dispose of mine.


I get at least that much annually from a somewhat smaller holding.

I guess that's randomness for you.

Watis


If of any interest, there’s a (currently) 15 page topic dedicated to Premium Bonds over at Bank Accounts Savings etc:

viewtopic.php?p=205203#p205203

Pipsmum
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205790

Postby Pipsmum » March 5th, 2019, 11:35 pm

My friend and I discussed that lottery tickets were a complete waste of money when you keep your stake with the PB's yet still have the thrill of chance.

We decided to buy a single £25 tranche of PB's each to equate to approx a months worth in lottery tickets. We shall periodically do the same again, if and when we feel like it.

We still attempted to win the euromillions and the lotto last weekend. The two tickets cost us £4.50 each for zilch.

Chances of winning a biggie.....(randomly found stats on the internet, depending where I looked)

Lotto jackpot = 1 in 45 million
Euromillions jackpot = 1 in 116.5 million (or 139,838,160 on another site)
PB = 1 in 34 billion (or 27 billion)

Lotto any prize = 1 in 9.3 (or 10)
Euromillions any prize = 1 in 13
PB lowest prize = 1 in 24,500

Seems vaguely more logical to get PB's instead and effectively 'win' a £25 prize each month by not losing it to any lottery ticket (only if you buy them anyway which I don't normally). Yet the comparable odds are not very comparable because be they high or not.... zilch is zilch whatever way you look at it.

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205963

Postby MaraMan » March 6th, 2019, 2:02 pm

I have just bought £5K more in premium bonds. I can only get about 1.5% interest on the money in a deposit account and until now my £10K in PB's has yielded £850 in winnings over the past 5 years, but that started at £1K with annual top ups and prize reinvestments. I can't therefore work out the annual ROI easily, but it seems to me less boring that earning 1.5% in an investment account and you never know one day I might win big!! :lol:
MM

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#205971

Postby kempiejon » March 6th, 2019, 2:22 pm

MaraMan wrote:I have just bought £5K more in premium bonds. I can only get about 1.5% interest on the money in a deposit account and until now my £10K in PB's has yielded £850 in winnings over the past 5 years, but that started at £1K with annual top ups and prize reinvestments. I can't therefore work out the annual ROI easily, but it seems to me less boring that earning 1.5% in an investment account and you never know one day I might win big!! :lol:
MM


Although 1 in 13 billion is near to zero, it makes that a very big might

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#206024

Postby MaraMan » March 6th, 2019, 5:02 pm

excuse me - 15,000 in 13 billion, or one in 866,667, if you don't mind :lol:

XFool
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#206059

Postby XFool » March 6th, 2019, 8:27 pm

MaraMan wrote:I have just bought £5K more in premium bonds. I can only get about 1.5% interest on the money in a deposit account and until now my £10K in PB's has yielded £850 in winnings over the past 5 years, but that started at £1K with annual top ups and prize reinvestments. I can't therefore work out the annual ROI easily, but it seems to me less boring that earning 1.5% in an investment account and you never know one day I might win big!! :lol:

If you use a spread sheet you can work out the XIRR value.

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#206060

Postby XFool » March 6th, 2019, 8:31 pm

MaraMan wrote:excuse me - 15,000 in 13 billion, or one in 866,667, if you don't mind :lol:

Or even 15,000 in 13 billion, twelve times a year; therefore one in 72,222 in a year! ;)

Stan
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#240010

Postby Stan » July 28th, 2019, 11:30 pm

I did try them a couple of times but never again thanks as it's just not worth it.

As someone has already said it's a case of more hope than anything else so my advice to anyone is to leave them alone.

vrdiver
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#240014

Postby vrdiver » July 29th, 2019, 12:06 am

They're a great place to park cash that might be needed, with the thrill of a big prize, maybe....

I think it was Martin Lewis (of MSE fame) who demonstrated that the best odds for winning a big cash prize was to put your money in a high interest savings account and use the interest to buy lottery tickets - better returns than buying PBs, but you did have to do a bit of work each month. That was a few years ago, when interest rates (and PB prize funds) were higher, but I assume the logic still holds true?

Either way, I won't be around long enough for a statistically valid sample of prizes to be declared on my bonds, so I'm just happy to have a protected cash pile for a rainy day that brings a little "maybe this time?" frisson on a monthly basis.

VRD

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#240051

Postby XFool » July 29th, 2019, 9:16 am

vrdiver wrote:Either way, I won't be around long enough for a statistically valid sample of prizes to be declared on my bonds...

NOBODY will be around long enough to achieve a statistically valid sample of ALL prizes to be declared on their bonds!
Last edited by XFool on July 29th, 2019, 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#240052

Postby XFool » July 29th, 2019, 9:22 am

Stan wrote:I did try them a couple of times but never again thanks as it's just not worth it.

As someone has already said it's a case of more hope than anything else so my advice to anyone is to leave them alone.

Obviously you know your own mind, however, without details of number of bonds and time periods - which you obviously may not wish to give - your opinion, IMO, can at best be described as gnomic.

yorkshirelad1
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#240062

Postby yorkshirelad1 » July 29th, 2019, 9:59 am

Stan wrote:I did try them a couple of times but never again thanks as it's just not worth it.

As someone has already said it's a case of more hope than anything else so my advice to anyone is to leave them alone.


I can see your point.

IMHO
  • no tax to pay on any winnings (and useful if you've used up your annual ISA and pension allowances)
  • no need to report on income tax return
  • no IFA/commission fees or regulatory mountain of explanatory advice paperwork
  • in addition to the FSCS £85k (or whatever it is at the moment) compensation limit
  • one e-mail if any winnings, and those winnings go straight into bank account, so minimal admin overheads
has a lot to be said for it. "Boring" may not be "sexy" but "boring" can sometimes be useful

Hardgrafter
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Re: Boring Premium Bonds

#240599

Postby Hardgrafter » July 30th, 2019, 7:38 pm

Used to have my PB winnings reinvested, but the paperwork was too much.
So I cashed in, and then bought a £50 block, with winnings sent to bank a/c.
In the past year its won £550, so a tax free return of 1.1%, exactly the sames as a 2 yr cash ISA. But it can be cashed out at any time without penalty, and there is always the hope of something bigger than a £25 prize.


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