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SentimentRules Investing

Any other investment discussions eg. peer to peer lending
SentimentRules
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Last Call - Shorting

#234555

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 12:00 pm

A lot of people don't like discussing shorts on other forums. To be honest I've been banned for it. But I think the reason is that those forums were also brokers. Most people buy so I guess they feel it can affect transactions. I think this forum will have no bias.

I'm not sure why most don't like shorting discussions. When I'm bullish, it's the shorter money I want to be tracking.

Anyway, I thought I'd dedicate a thread to shorting if anyone fancies it. It should interest bulls too. Afterall shorters and pessimistic bulls create the low buy value... just as bulls create the high short value.

Bulls and bears are best friends in the city. Scratch each other's backs. Retail should be same really.

If anyone wants to discuss a short or where buy value may be in a shorting stock, I'm up for the debate here.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234557

Postby Itsallaguess » July 7th, 2019, 12:15 pm

SentimentRules wrote:
A lot of people don't like discussing shorts on other forums. To be honest I've been banned for it. But I think the reason is that those forums were also brokers.

Most people buy so I guess they feel it can affect transactions. I think this forum will have no bias.

I'm not sure why most don't like shorting discussions.


I think that whilst there might be some genuine interest in shorting here, you also might want to be mindful of trying to turn every thread you visit into a 'shorting' thread, or a 'charting' thread, or similar, especially if it's clear that those threads might currently be discussing other investment ideas, such as LTBH and/or dividends or income...

If you can find a way to discuss your particular investment-interests that don't overly disrupt existing discussions, and you can be respectful of other investment-strategies without widely disparaging them, then that will go a long way to helping sustain the harmonious community that we're striving to maintain here...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

SentimentRules
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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234562

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 12:30 pm

"I think that whilst there might be some genuine interest in shorting here, you also might want to be mindful of trying to turn every thread you visit into a 'shorting' thread, or a 'charting' thread, or similar, especially if it's clear that those threads might currently be discussing other investment ideas, such as LTBH and/or dividends or income... "

First off, I have held short positions longer than most LTBH' s. So its valid on that front too. Isn't the idea to challenge each others ways and executions? To question each other.

My questions, charts, or shorts inputs, are not to say im right. It's to find a challenge that shows me something i missed in analysis. Hence I put a high value on the fundamental counter of what i say. Doesn't mean i agree but I look into it.

Surely if we all agree with each other, there is absolutely nothing to be learned. A pointless discussion. Surely if we only look at one methodology (fundamentals) we are ignoring an important element of analysis (And vice versa)

I don't rate one method higher than the other. Charts and fundamentals, I have watched investors lose in equal measure with both over the years.

Fundamentals have one flaw. They sound informative. It shows a high level of sector/market nous.

The only problem is, they still lose as much as the techs. But then call it a LTH to justify it. Or blame sentiment lol.

And ditto chartists. Similar flaws

The best i ever saw in markets, combined.

So why not discuss both on an equal weighting?

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234568

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 12:46 pm

Anyway let's start it off with just two.

For fundamental reasons (That includes charts- I class those as fundamental)

I am short Vod and HUR

Anyone wants to challenge my positions on those, be great to discuss and learn.

Il keep shorting chats to this thread. Won't mention shorts on other threads in future.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234573

Postby Alaric » July 7th, 2019, 1:00 pm

SentimentRules wrote:I am short Vod and HUR


Vod is Vodafone which is well known on the wider TLF boards, where some wouldn't touch it with a bargepole and others thinks it has an outstanding dividend yield with the dividends bound to increase in future.

What though is HUR? If it's the oil exploration Company Hurricane Energy, it could well be the first mention on the more general boards of TLF outside those who follow such companies.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234574

Postby monabri » July 7th, 2019, 1:00 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:I think that whilst there might be some genuine interest in shorting here, you also might want to be mindful of trying to turn every thread you visit into a 'shorting' thread, or a 'charting' thread, or similar, especially if it's clear that those threads might currently be discussing other investment ideas, such as LTBH and/or dividends or income...

If you can find a way to discuss your particular investment-interests that don't overly disrupt existing discussions, and you can be respectful of other investment-strategies without widely disparaging them, then that will go a long way to helping sustain the harmonious community that we're striving to maintain here...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


I think that's a fair comment from IAAG - a place for all conversation. If people have an interest in short selling - then, sure it should be given a forum.
Personally, whilst I might find of interest, I wouldn't have a clue about how to go about it so it would be a learning step for me.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234576

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 1:08 pm

"
I think that's a fair comment from IAAG - a place for all conversation. If people have an interest in short selling - then, sure it should be given a forum.
Personally, whilst I might find of interest, I wouldn't have a clue about how to go about it so it would be a learning step for me."

Best buys are made low. So shorting is probably even if greater interest to buyers seeking value.

But yes. It seems to be a bad word in forums. Il stick to it here lol

Yes HUR is oil exploration.

I trade in many places. UK US India Thailand Japan australia America etc. Direct and etfs. I'm never bothered where something is. Just what its going to do

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234579

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 1:18 pm

Everybody learns this game. I was taught too.

Only taught to buy. But for a long period , I had to learn shorting etc first.

Reason was this quote "what good is being a good buyer, if you cant see the pessimistic bulls/shorters coming ".

So I'm happy to say that shorting knowledge is equally important to buyer and returns.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234581

Postby Itsallaguess » July 7th, 2019, 1:29 pm

SentimentRules wrote:


Just a quick note to say that when you're replying to someone and wanting to include a section of their post in your reply, it's much better to use the 'double-quote' icon to the right of the particular post you're wanting to reply to, as that will then configure your reply with the whole of that post quoted at the beginning of it -

Image

This does two things -

1. It makes it simpler for people to follow a particular discussion, as they can see who's taking part in those discussions and who's being replied to in any given post. Your replies on this website up to this point have not been clear who they are replying to...

2. If the user you're replying to has notifications set up for it, then they get a notification to say that they've had one of their posts replied to, so it helps to maintain conversations, as in the absence of such notifications then people might be likely to miss a reply to their post where it's not obvious that one has been made...

You can edit down a fully-quoted post that's made using the double-quotes icon, but so long as you maintain the 'quote' '/unquote' tags wrapped around the particular quoted text you want to maintain, then it'll work as planned.

If you're wanting to try this the next time you're replying to someone's post, then I'd also recommend diligent use of the 'Preview' button for a while, especially if editing down any quoted replies, just to make sure that any editing you're doing is not breaking the intended quote functionality altogether.

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234582

Postby SentimentRules » July 7th, 2019, 1:36 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
SentimentRules wrote:


Just a quick note to say that when you're replying to someone and wanting to include a section of their post in your reply, it's much better to use the 'double-quote' icon to the right of the particular post you're wanting to reply to, as that will then configure your reply with the whole of that post quoted at the beginning of it -

Image

This does two things -

1. It makes it simpler for people to follow a particular

Itsallaguess


Just trying it. Thank you very much. Excellent.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234970

Postby SentimentRules » July 8th, 2019, 6:31 pm

The only question now is, should I double the short from 187? Very tempting to do it via the US at 1% down there

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234975

Postby PinkDalek » July 8th, 2019, 6:37 pm

SentimentRules wrote:The only question now is, should I double the short from 187? Very tempting to do it via the US at 1% down there


Which short?

If you seriously want people to reply, you could make it easier for them if you were more forthcoming in your outpourings.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#234977

Postby SentimentRules » July 8th, 2019, 6:38 pm

Sorry. Forgot the epic. VOD

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SentimentRules Investing

#235104

Postby SentimentRules » July 9th, 2019, 10:18 am

Ok so let's say i see Tesco fell to 200p. And it's at an area of institutional past positioning. (Volume based ). So first il take a look at the longer term, and see if the medium to long term holders have any reason to dump it. Il also look at the short side of the market, and see if they now have reason to close out. So let's say all the flows, concur that a short term entry is ok. (A few days..i dont day trade stocks. Ftse gold crude gbpusd yes)

Then il drill down to identify that the medium to long term holders or new entrants are going in or averaging down etc. And that the shorts are at least short covering if not closing. Do this via intraday volume and flows.

Ok also make sure that the sector its in, is saying the same thing. And if the company has any serious correlations to say, a commodity, it's index or a currency etc, il check that too. Couple of other things as well.

So if all that tallies? I'm in for the trade. Say target 10% initially as long as no serious overhead issues inbetween (areas where shorters will love or funds may dump out)

That's the trade. An investor can do same. Then they can take risk off capital after a few percent up... and hold. An income investor in my book , should only hold until 1. Price whenever comes back to capital input point. Or 2. If the stock rallieds 30-60% in 12-18 months, take the capital. That's a few years income in short time. Up to the individual.

So very often, my trade becomes a medium to long term hold because the market overshoots trade target. I can lock it down.

And also very often, an intended hold becomes a few day trade , because the volume and flow dynamics changed. When it changes, can't ignore it. Derisk

I use fundamentals too but I don't know how ro type how i use them in a short paragraph so won't bother lol.

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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#235107

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 9th, 2019, 10:22 am

SentimentRules wrote:Ok so let's say i see Tesco fell to 200p. And it's at an area of institutional past positioning. (Volume based ). So first il take a look at the longer term, and see if the medium to long term holders have any reason to dump it. Il also look at the short side of the market, and see if they now have reason to close out. So let's say all the flows, concur that a short term entry is ok. (A few days..i dont day trade stocks. Ftse gold crude gbpusd yes)

So where do you get info about trading volumes? Is that something to do with the candle stick charts? (do you have any links)

Apologies have only been investing for about 16 months so don't know a lot of the details.

Matt

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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#235111

Postby SentimentRules » July 9th, 2019, 10:35 am

I'm afraid my charts and how i trade you won't find online or in books. Not my exact style anyway. But happy to share what i can. On the weekend il post you some snapshots of my charts in technical analysis somewhere. And explain all that's on them. Not that i use tools that dont exist to others. But my settings are not something you'll come across typically. So il show you on weekend.

However do note, I pay for chart software. Sharescope and sharepad (sharepad has a decent fundamental dashboard - but you know, it isn't about finding value. Its about others perception of value . So don't get too hung up on fundamentals.) . I also use tradingview because sharescope alone doesn't cover all global things

Is your interest solely uk? And etfs? You only need one then. Not two.

Tradingview has a free trial. 30 days. So you can try it out there.

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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#235113

Postby SentimentRules » July 9th, 2019, 10:40 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:e.g. This is a candlestick chart of IMB trades:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 9GBGBXSET1

if you set it on "TODAY" and select "candle" for line type, you can see several big red bars between about 8:15 and 8:22. Is that from short sellers closing out or something?

Matt


Thats another chapter lol.

Most times falling prices are simply pessimistic bulls. Or bulls booking out targets They create the fall. Not shorters. Because they are flooding market with shares.

Shorters for the most part just take advantage of that in bull markets. Different in bear markets. And you can identify them. You'll see anyway.

Identifying short covering is different but fairly easy. Because when a price starts ro rise, but no real institutional interest identified at the low..or consolidation.. .you know its just short covering. So you know that's only a trade. Dead cat bounce in action

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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#235119

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 9th, 2019, 11:16 am

SentimentRules wrote:
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:e.g. This is a candlestick chart of IMB trades:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 9GBGBXSET1

if you set it on "TODAY" and select "candle" for line type, you can see several big red bars between about 8:15 and 8:22. Is that from short sellers closing out or something?

Matt


Thats another chapter lol.

Most times falling prices are simply pessimistic bulls. Or bulls booking out targets They create the fall. Not shorters. Because they are flooding market with shares.

Shorters for the most part just take advantage of that in bull markets. Different in bear markets. And you can identify them. You'll see anyway.

Identifying short covering is different but fairly easy. Because when a price starts ro rise, but no real institutional interest identified at the low..or consolidation.. .you know its just short covering. So you know that's only a trade. Dead cat bounce in action

I get it, a short getting covered is a buy, so will make the price rise.

I still don't how you determine "institutional interest". I know that some sites tell you the "biggest owners" in a stock, but I'm not sure how I'd detect "real institutional interest" at the low.

PS I'm in this for LTBH, pretty much. I have sold out the odd position (or a chunk) last year to make a quick buck. But I'm trying to "run my profits" now

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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#235127

Postby SentimentRules » July 9th, 2019, 11:36 am

I've no interest in what an instituation holds. Bwecause it's useless info. If they see a bear market coming, maybe they won't sell? Just loan the stock out to shorters . Get a premium for that on the stock. Or simply just use options etc to short it out too. Either way their hold can make money. Rising or falling markets

Ultimately, what they hold tells you nothing about the truth of their thinking really.

So what your seeking is their accumulation in drops and consolidations. Or their distribution at highs. That is key info to an investor. When a turn starts in a stock, retrace or doomed for 5 years? Which will it be? Hard to know right? But we can know if its smart or not to hold a turn in action. If you see the money in markets bailing out, it's not smart to hold. You should exit the high. But money bails in the rise. That's what catches most people. If money isnt bailing, choice is yours. Hold or sell to buy back a few percent cheaper (depending how your chart looks).

So remember i said to you, all public info is manipulate to an extent? It's also dead info

That means, what fundamentalists look at now, was dealt with in the city 6-12 months prior. And today, the info we don't know yet, is being dealt with now. No point trying fo forecast past a quarter. Central banks hardly even get thst right.

What your trying to identify is what there expectation is via their money. Money talks louder than most things. It's why irrational markets are common. If the money decides to go one way, reason matters little.

Your only going to see this in terms of volumes and money flows in/out. This is where you identify them.

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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#235132

Postby Alaric » July 9th, 2019, 11:40 am

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:So where do you get info about trading volumes?


How is it known what type of investor is doing the buying or selling? Funds which are indexed or strongly benchmarked are going to have to buy or sell if they have inflows or outflows to the fund. "Active" managers have a choice, as do private investors. I would imagine many or most private investors are investing via Nominees not least because it's compulsory for ISAs, so how are they identified?

When you get major dumping such as the last days of Carillion, who is the likely counter party who is picking up the other side of the trade?


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