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SentimentRules Investing

Any other investment discussions eg. peer to peer lending
mrbrightside
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Re: SentimentRules Investing

#236111

Postby mrbrightside » July 12th, 2019, 10:06 am

simoan wrote:
jackdaww wrote:no idea what this has been all about !

I blame care in the community...

Or a trading chatbot written by an intern that has somehow escaped into the open.

dealtn
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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236302

Postby dealtn » July 12th, 2019, 8:23 pm

SentimentRules wrote:Anyway let's start it off with just two.

For fundamental reasons (That includes charts- I class those as fundamental)

I am short Vod and HUR

Anyone wants to challenge my positions on those, be great to discuss and learn.

Il keep shorting chats to this thread. Won't mention shorts on other threads in future.


So why do you classify charts as "fundamentals"?

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236309

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 9:01 pm

Fundamental sentiment drives price. So charts represent fundamentals.

The weakness i find in traditional fundamentals is that 95% of it is based on known data.

That's ok but not good if the funds do a review of a companies book values week after the good results, and decide it's going to be much worse v debt on the next company release. (Just simple example ).

That sort of money moves markets so want to know they are thinking this or positioning for it. A bit late finding out 6 months later when the company say it . Chart aids seeing their current fundamental thinking

That's my view on it. Probably the only one lol

Traditional fundamentals have their uses. I don't go deep into it. Just look at a dashboard of key ratios v competitors or something. See who at least, looks strongest at the low in a sector call. See if the money agrees in chart/volume or whatever..

My methods are pretty simple. I learned lots in markets over the years. And the best lesson was to not apply 99.9% of that knowledge.

"A lttle knowledge is a dangerous thing" Well in markets, a lot of knowledge is lethal.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236320

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » July 12th, 2019, 9:55 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:"I think that whilst there might be some genuine interest in shorting here, you also might want to be mindful of trying to turn every thread you visit into a 'shorting' thread, or a 'charting' thread, or similar, especially if it's clear that those threads might currently be discussing other investment ideas, such as LTBH and/or dividends or income... "

SentimentRules wrote:First off, I have held short positions longer than most LTBH' s. So its valid on that front too. Isn't the idea to challenge each others ways and executions? To question each other.

Hi SR,

May I offer my thoughts please? I'd like to plagiarise an analogy used by another. Imagine I am a box of chocolates. You can pick out those you like and leave the rest for others to enjoy. Itsallaguess offered some excellent guidance on how to share your own chocolates around here on TLF. I can't speak for anyone else on TLF but I couldn't have put it better. I am trying to pick my words and be as thoughtful as Iag. I was slightly surprised at your initial response which I have highlighted above. There's a sort of unwritten code of conduct on the boards. It really calls for those who are new to the boards to build up a credibility rating. If we are to be able to put a value on your thoughts we really need to be able to put a value on you first. It's a trust thing. My surprise emanating from your response was that you seemed to miss the opportunity presented by Iag to perhaps adjust your approach. I'm very much like you. I like to hear others thoughts about various subjects to. But on the flip side I don't make demands on them to do just that.
SentimentRules wrote:My questions, charts, or shorts inputs, are not to say im right. It's to find a challenge that shows me something i missed in analysis. Hence I put a high value on the fundamental counter of what i say. Doesn't mean i agree but I look into it.

Forgive me but I feel that sounds as if "we" are here at your express need. May I suggest that conversation is a two way event.
SentimentRules wrote:Surely if we all agree with each other, there is absolutely nothing to be learned. A pointless discussion. Surely if we only look at one methodology (fundamentals) we are ignoring an important element of analysis (And vice versa)

Technical analysis isn't for me. I drive a car. But I don't drive a four wheel drive. I have shoes, but they don't contain leather.
SentimentRules wrote:I don't rate one method higher than the other. Charts and fundamentals, I have watched investors lose in equal measure with both over the years.

I rate fundamental analysis above technical.
SentimentRules wrote:Fundamentals have one flaw. They sound informative. It shows a high level of sector/market nous.

Fundamentals have more than one flaw. I have never lost money on any stock I have owned. I have always used fundamentals.
SentimentRules wrote:The only problem is, they still lose as much as the techs. But then call it a LTH to justify it. Or blame sentiment lol.

I'm sorry but this really is a general comment. I am not a brilliant investor. I'm aware there are some genuinely sharp cookies around here. I don't think you are going to engage them in constructive exchange unless you remove generalities such as this.
SentimentRules wrote:So why not discuss both on an equal weighting?

Some will agree with you. But others will prefer to take the chocolates they like from the box and leave the rest for others.
What I like about this little community is that there's always someone offering support.
I have worked in construction for forty years now. I have learned one thing and one thing only. Those who take care of the dignity and respect first never have problems getting 600te's of concrete into the ground. It's magic :roll:

I would always be happy to talk to you on fundamentals (which I am refreshing currently) but am unable to offer anything relating to technical analysis/charting.
However, and as a matter of great importance to me I want to get the dignity and repsect part right first, if for no other reason than I know at some point there's going to be 600te of concrete turning up at my door. :shock:

Best
AiY

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236326

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 10:24 pm

An interesting approach AiY. I had to ponder the depth of the true meaning in that message. Still am.

However I like the 'box of chocolates' analogy.

It is very possible you are actually an excellent fundamental analyst . And where you lost, you did not get the analysis wrong at all, at that time you analysed the stock.

If that's the case, and I'm already thinking your more savvy than you indirectly suggest , to create trust and respect lol.... Maybe it's just an element missing rather than a relearning process.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236331

Postby dspp » July 12th, 2019, 10:50 pm

SR,
When a plane is presented with a runway and accelerates it has a limited amount of time to reach flying speed before bad stuff happens. When a human arrives on a bulletin board and hits the accelerator, then a similar issue arises.
regards,
dspp

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236333

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 11:06 pm

D
dspp wrote:SR,
When a plane is presented with a runway and accelerates it has a limited amount of time to reach flying speed before bad stuff happens. When a human arrives on a bulletin board and hits the accelerator, then a similar issue arises.
regards,
dspp


dspp

Your probably too good natured to delete me from the site. But i assure you it's water off a ducks back to me. I'd even delete me if i was admin haha. I've had so many names by now I had to keep a database of username / email names I hadn't used, rather than had , over the years

So by all means go ahead. Save me typing and everyone else reading my ramblings anyway.

Cheers

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236335

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » July 12th, 2019, 11:14 pm

SentimentRules wrote:It is very possible you are actually an excellent fundamental analyst . And where you lost, you did not get the analysis wrong at all, at that time you analysed the stock.

I can assure you that I am a very average fundamental investor (when I am invested). I may have misunderstood you but would you mind if I clarified a small point please. I have never lost money on any stock I have purchased. And I put some of that down to lady luck 8-).

I'm a Yorkshireman. What you see is what you get. I have no hidden agenda. I can be abrasive though - an old wound I often find myself apologising for albeit less often these days. Long may that continue :roll:

I agree that we can benefit by listening to others challenging us.

Part of my role is to minimise risk whilst at the same time maximising margins. I am "The Guardian of the Company Pound". As part of that I need to be able to command respect from the company supply chain. That's a tough role. They are always going to be part of any solution. I can demand that respect or as I have learned over the last forty years, I can earn it. I can never put it on the line though. I haven't turned up to a game of cards to gamble with the respect I have worked hard to earn.

Somehow I translate what little I have learned from my very narrow world of work into a way to guide how I consider a stock purchase. I hasten to add I have not been too well for a considerable amount of time and am simply getting back into things and haven't been invested in individual stocks for some time. I'm sort of on a refresher course.

I could argue that my style of investing is "ether" or "trusting my guts". Even if it is I am not going to insist that everyone here needs to know about it. It simply works for me. And, trust me. for the life of me, I don't know why, it just does.

I've deliberately talked a little about me. Because I wanted to.

I'm intrigued to know if you would like to reciprocate?

I can assure you that many of us would like to know a little more about you too. And may I refer you to my earlier comment please. I am a Yorkshireman. I have no agenda. I do have a terrible sense of humour though. Something I should be shot for :lol: There's no agenda ... a genuine invite, or if you prefer opportunity for you to tell us a little bit about you.

There's a reason God gave me two ears and one mouth and I am going to defer to that ratio now

AiY

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#236337

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 11:33 pm

I'm never around anywhere long enough to bother with earning respect. That includes here. But in fairness if i was going to do a few decades anywhere, I'd do it your way .

'Minimise risk- Maximise Margins".... you already have it sussed anyway.

I'm glad your getting back to health. That's always pleasant to here about somebody even when just in a forum.

About me

Nothing. There is zero I can put to paper. But what I hope to be.. maybe that dignity and respect you speak of. Maybe il truly try one day.
Never know. Might find the answers in it. Then il know the questions

PS Some of your words and phrases, I used to hear regularly. And it wasn't in construction.....

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237742

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 12:11 pm

Shorted Vodafone around 134p.

Thankfully we got a bit of a rise. As a continous drop would have forced me out the day before results.

Instead I can hopefully add to short but need it above 130p for that. Dunno if will get to do it. I hope so. Shorters back in at the 50 already today so maybe not. .

The muted market response on the liberty deal and imminent results I hope is acting as a pre warning to many LTHs.

Anyway summary. A rise into results of 130 + .... short written all over the results .

120p before results? Il have to take it. Be another dead cat bounce in it. Will wait and use that for new short.

Nothing new in this sector since it started collapsing last year. Shorters paradise guys. Sub 100 imo regardless

When you look at most investors there is common ground amongst them. They look at momentum , sentiment and value. Well lets put that in order .

Value Momentum Sentiment.

But they give sentiment least weighting. They only see it as a driver back to their value and momentum analysis. .

Would it shock you if i say 'sentiment half the time, changes value and momentum'? .
Seems highly overlooked. Anyway there you go.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237759

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 19th, 2019, 12:59 pm

I personally don't do shorts. I don't think I ever would. Perhaps it's because I hate borrowing or having any kind of loan over my head. I spent years paying down (and finally clearing) our mortgage, and only spent the first 2 years of my car driving life with any kind of loan against the vehicle.

Having said all that I've no problem at all with people shorting shares. Indeed I recently read an interesting article stating that the presence of short sellers actually encourages better price discovery in markets, and that many shorters will actually do a lot of research (fundamental analysis if you will) to uncover the "true" (lol, as you would say!) value of a firm, and obviously short it if they consider it over valued.

But.... as one or two have eluded here, when one joins a forum it's probably best to get acquainted with the consensus and perhaps either go with the flow or just read the posts and don't write if you are likely to rock the boat. I appreciate that it's often interesting to hear a different viewpoint from time to time, but equally it's good to apply a little restraint once you've made your point, and withdraw slightly when others' encouragement is not entirely overwhelming.

Re. chatting about shorts here, though I'm fairly new myself (about 16 months), I get the impression that the vast majority are LTBH, so whilst they probably don't object to the concept of short selling themselves, I would guess that you will struggle to get any kind of deep interaction with them on the topic.

Matt

PS. If you are genuinely interested in discussing it with others, why don't you start your own blog?

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237763

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 1:12 pm

Hi.

I don't borrow stocks. I short via spreads mostly. Or sometimes Puts. As with anything it just depends how you manage them. Example my management style, my risk is equal to a buy.

If my management was bad shorting? It would also be buying and so it goes, both higher risk of equal weighting.

With regards to where to speak of shorts etc, my view is they are best in a buyers market area. After all what's the point in everyone singing from the same hymn sheet? There is nothing to learn and holds 100% bias.

One day il buy a stock and announce it here. But it will shock you. I'm at my most pessimistic when holding a buy. As soon as i execute, I try to remove my holding bias by instantly seeking reason to short it. No point in seeking buyers at this stage. They cant harm my position.

Same shorting. I'm only seeking a reason to buy, to remove my bias. If I dont see that reason I can hold short.


Yes good buyers and shorters do their fundamentals . No doubt. Of course when to execute is the key. That's another analysis. Afterall maybe market dont agree with buy until 40% lower etc.
Last edited by SentimentRules on July 19th, 2019, 1:17 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237765

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 1:15 pm

Anotherwards...LTHs should have big interest in the shorters. Given many shorters hold position longer than most buyers hold buys, pretty important .

Anyway why do you assume LTHs simply hold? Institutions probably shorting these more than traders even with holdings in them.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237766

Postby AleisterCrowley » July 19th, 2019, 1:16 pm

The thing I don't like like about shorts is.. theoretically unlimited losses
I know in the real world there are limits, but the outcomes can be quite nasty

Not related to shorting directly, but remember the Lloyds 'names' crash where losses far exceeded investments?

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237768

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 1:19 pm

Pretty simple solution. Your risk price should be guarenteed. Means a gap market doesn't gap your risk.

In fact buyers should be doing similar really. I do. Why hold a risk in any direction that's not required.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237769

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 1:21 pm

Can i ask you a question. Serious one

Is there any price in a holding at which you think... I'm wrong here? Have you got thst price in mind at time of execution?

Maybe you do. Most don't. Biggest risk takers of them all

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237771

Postby simoan » July 19th, 2019, 1:28 pm

Can I please ask what this thread is doing in "Share Ideas"? It is not about a specific company at all. Please could this be moved to some more appropriate forum, preferably the far reaches of outer space... Si

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237772

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 1:30 pm

Its in share ideas originally as shorting Vodafone and HUR. I was simply answering questions to general reasoning.

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237773

Postby AleisterCrowley » July 19th, 2019, 1:30 pm

"Investment Strategies" ?

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Re: Last Call - Shorting

#237774

Postby SentimentRules » July 19th, 2019, 1:33 pm

Yes good idea


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