The Value of Forecasts

[bruncher]

Does anyone trust forecasts regarding the value of share prices? I must admit I do look at the forecasts provided in the FT, perhaps at their most useful and credible when there are several analysts so one can see an average expectation.

The most optimistic forecast I've seen recently is for Molecular Energies (MEN):

The one analyst offering a 12 month price target expects Molecular Energies PLC share price to rise to 820.47 in the next year from the last price of 77.50.

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/te ... ?s=MEN:LSE

This would be a rise of 958.7% !

[monabri]

No...because (1) they'd be commenting from some sunny clime or their own island and (2) why would they tell you what is going to be a good punt?

[Urbandreamer]

Cheaper by the dozen!

Well that was a statement by an economist about children!

However he did also say that the purpose of economic forecasting was to make astrologers look good!

John Kenneth Galbraith said, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable."

Ps, he did have a dozen children. There was a book and a film about the family.

[GoSeigen]

Does anyone trust forecasts regarding the value of share prices? I must admit I do look at the forecasts provided in the FT, perhaps at their most useful and credible when there are several analysts so one can see an average expectation.

The most optimistic forecast I've seen recently is for Molecular Energies (MEN):

The one analyst offering a 12 month price target expects Molecular Energies PLC share price to rise to 820.47 in the next year from the last price of 77.50.

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/te ... ?s=MEN:LSE

This would be a rise of 958.7% !

Forecasts are a trailing indicator. If you treat them that way you will not go far wrong.


GS