Post #2 in the cycles series looks at the annual pattern of stock market returns - with 140 years of truly independent datasets available to us, its very clear that stocks tend to do best in the period between Nov-May and less well over the summer months.
"Sell in May, come back on St Ledgers' Day" they say - this is why
https://www.ampcapital.com/africa/en/in ... nd-go-away
https://seekingalpha.com/article/118346 ... f-evidence
DJIA 1950-2011 Maximum depth Maximum duration
Buy & Hold -35.50% 6 years
Winters only -19.41% 3 years
Summers only -54.29% 47 years
Generally I think we should all invest based on the the long term and take these seasonal patterns in our stride, but knowing these patterns exist can also help to calibrate our expectations.... and yes granted that it doesn't hold every year, but equally, are you sure that over a century of data is going to unwind itself on your watch?
As we head into the summer in 2022, the expectation is that markets should lag...