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The 2 stock portfolio.

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
Arborbridge
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#497130

Postby Arborbridge » April 28th, 2022, 8:23 am

Dod101 wrote:I still wonder what this guy is on?

Dod


Two stocks and an interminable, unreadable ramble.

To be parked in a layby.

Itsallaguess
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#497134

Postby Itsallaguess » April 28th, 2022, 8:37 am

Dod101 wrote:
I still wonder what this guy is on?


At least he's consistent, I'll give him that.

He consistently creates a straw-man argument that he's the only one on this thread that thinks time in the market is advantageous, where in reality not one single person is disagreeing with him on that point.

He also consistently creates another straw-man argument that he's the only one on this thread that thinks compounding-returns can be helpful in delivering good long-term investment outcomes, where again, in reality not one single person is disagreeing with him on that point either.

He also consistently uses both of the above straw-man arguments to mask the only real concern that's regularly raised with him, and that's around the risk of doing all of the above 'good things' whilst holding only a two-stock portfolio...

He consistently ignores the risk of doing that, and he consistently takes the view that because there's never been any poor outcomes from holding his two-stock portfolio, that therefore means there never will be...

He consistently ignores the fact that 'risk' isn't just about the chances of something that he might consider to be unlikely actually *happening*, but it's also about the *potential impact* of it happening, if it actually does...

Many people might get away with it over a lifetime of investment, of course, but boy, what a shock it must be for those that wake up one morning and find out that they've not...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#497179

Postby CliffEdge » April 28th, 2022, 10:55 am

Pastcaring wrote:A quick update.

Dod I will point out again how important honesty is in investing .Something you and the vast majority of people are just not familiar with.Thinking is probably alongside that,no chance they will ever think .

Using this important principle of honesty how dumb and incompetent would you have to be to deny a two stock portfolio would be 2 stocks.The echo chamber on fantasy world is a great source of amusement for me,a wonderful example of the infinite stupidity of the human race..

As pointed out right at the start of how to make a million at low cost.Given the choice between compounding money and compounding stupidity,the herd will always choose to compound stupidity They detest facts and reality

Sooo,facts and reality,.

I know now that CBA has reached the 30 year milestone,the letter to shareholders enclosed with my DRP statement.I was never sure if it was a 1990. 91 or 92 start date. CommSec shareholder update into Google should take you there.A 2 page letter.

Tell me Dod,on your fantasy world how many pages would a 2 page letter have?
I digress,the letter tells you that the minimum purchase was 400 shares at a cost of $2160.Find out for yourself what that compounds to.The franking credit probably would not apply to the UK ,I think the UK had a similar system to avoid double taxation of dividends but I'm not sure.Who could imaging doing nothing for 30 years,apart from laughing at the herd of course Who could believe that compounding takes time.

The Wesfarmers compounding of course worked out at $1000 in 1984 grew to i$669K if I remember correctly.Of course thanks to whatever his name was ( something guess ?) we know how this happens,his experience of investing and what he was taught at University.Confirmation bias,survivorship bias and just pure luck,that's the secret.How the hell anybody can repeat that rubbish every day for an entire lifetime is beyond me The fools that refuse to see their own folly..
Spare a $guv,entire lifetime guv,every day I had no luck at all guv.You"re rich,you obviously been very lucky every day,spare a $ guv.

Damn, I just poked myself in the eye!
Never mind. Bruce, mate, I really enjoy your posts but I'm in the UK and management modus operandi here is to strip out everything of value, pay themselves huge bonuses and drive the company into the ground. The UK is a different country. It is impossible here to find enduring good individual shares. You should show more sympathy for our plight.

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#497691

Postby Myfyr » April 30th, 2022, 2:16 pm

CryptoPlankton wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Whatever anyone thinks of the OP's style of writing the fact is that McQuarrie and no doubt CBA have a very good long term record, as indeed do the Canadian banks. It is our banks and in fact most of the European banks that are so awful.

I doubt that anyone but the OP that would hold a mere 2 stock portfolio and especially two banks, however good they may be.

Dod

Although the OP is only half as reckless (2 shares instead of one), it is very reminiscent of reading the supremely confident contributions of jimsusan on the old Motley Fool boards. (The obvious difference being the lack of hubris in jimsusan's engaging and eloquent writing, which meant you couldn't help feeling a little sympathy for him when it finally all came crashing down...)


This is jimsusan i think?

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/james-norris-75204518

Wonder if he still has his Lloyds shares?

Pastcaring
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511268

Postby Pastcaring » July 2nd, 2022, 2:48 am

The year ends Evidently it was a bit of bloodbath,there wasn't enough noise to wake me up, I'll have to pay attention for the next 6 months and see what I can pick up.at bargain prices.
Your wealth increased slightly on the road to a million.
The shareholding in CBA increased to 1199 shares at $90.70 each.The next shares arrive in September and March 2023.
Obviously the shareholding in MQG also increased to 1167 shares at $164.24 each.
Prices at 1july 2022.
Rough mental arithmetic brings that to $300,500,same rough arithmetic gives an increase of 3% for the year,probably closer to 2.9%,work it out for yourselves.

I don't have the letter from CBA to hand so from memory $2000 grew to $220,000.Doing nothing for 30 years is a difficult job,but somebody has to do it.The letter also shows how my rough compounding all those years ago was reasonably correct on the number of shares after 30 years,and nowhere near on the price of the shares.
The number of shares was slightly lower,the share price was far higher.
Who could imagine investing is as easy as getting it roughly right .

The next shares in MQG arrive on Monday 4 July .You get 23 ,taking the share holding in MQG to 1190 for the next dividend in December,and a further increase in the shareholding.

Let's crack on compounding that stupidity shall we.,the echo chamber calls.You can't do that,how come everybody else isn't doing that.
For CBA 31 years of increasing profits and obviously the share price increasing.They have the odd stumble here and there,and will continue to have the odd stumble in the future.
The only conclusion that the herd can draw from all the easily obtainable information is that they will go bust,it is too risky,Jimsusan bought shares in Lloyyds bank,how much more proof could be needed.
The stupidity of the human race is infinite. They are rabid and fanatical in their determination to believe in the delusions they have created for themselves.Facts and reality must be avoided.
See how we go in the coming year shall we,I think it will be interesting,I wonder what I can pick up cheap.Then again,being lazy I wonder if I'll even bother looking at prices.

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511291

Postby CliffEdge » July 2nd, 2022, 9:22 am

Pastcaring wrote:The year ends Evidently it was a bit of bloodbath,there wasn't enough noise to wake me up, I'll have to pay attention for the next 6 months and see what I can pick up.at bargain prices.
Your wealth increased slightly on the road to a million.
The shareholding in CBA increased to 1199 shares at $90.70 each.The next shares arrive in September and March 2023.
Obviously the shareholding in MQG also increased to 1167 shares at $164.24 each.
Prices at 1july 2022.
Rough mental arithmetic brings that to $300,500,same rough arithmetic gives an increase of 3% for the year,probably closer to 2.9%,work it out for yourselves.

I don't have the letter from CBA to hand so from memory $2000 grew to $220,000.Doing nothing for 30 years is a difficult job,but somebody has to do it.The letter also shows how my rough compounding all those years ago was reasonably correct on the number of shares after 30 years,and nowhere near on the price of the shares.
The number of shares was slightly lower,the share price was far higher.
Who could imagine investing is as easy as getting it roughly right .

The next shares in MQG arrive on Monday 4 July .You get 23 ,taking the share holding in MQG to 1190 for the next dividend in December,and a further increase in the shareholding.

Let's crack on compounding that stupidity shall we.,the echo chamber calls.You can't do that,how come everybody else isn't doing that.
For CBA 31 years of increasing profits and obviously the share price increasing.They have the odd stumble here and there,and will continue to have the odd stumble in the future.
The only conclusion that the herd can draw from all the easily obtainable information is that they will go bust,it is too risky,Jimsusan bought shares in Lloyyds bank,how much more proof could be needed.
The stupidity of the human race is infinite. They are rabid and fanatical in their determination to believe in the delusions they have created for themselves.Facts and reality must be avoided.
See how we go in the coming year shall we,I think it will be interesting,I wonder what I can pick up cheap.Then again,being lazy I wonder if I'll even bother looking at prices.

Thanks Bruce mate. You could at least pretend to have some sympathy for us Brits. BTW for you property in the UK is dead cheap. I have to congratulate you on your prescience, with your wealth as Oz becomes uninhabitable you can come here and become a king. Cheers cobber.

Itsallaguess
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511743

Postby Itsallaguess » July 5th, 2022, 7:06 am

This is a fascinating thread, as is the OP's separate recent update below, again strongly admonishing those of us with much more diversified investment strategies here -

https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=35026

Surely though, anyone who's well into 'won the game' territory in a financial sense, and who *continues* to take such focused, leveraged financial risks must fall more into 'gambling addiction' territory than one that might be excused for still being necessary from an actual 'investment' point of view?

Either the OP has 'made it', and doesn't actually have a financial need to continue taking these focused and leveraged risks, or they've got a lifestyle that means that they *do* need to continue taking them...

I continue to believe that neither of those options is likely to have a happy ending over the long term...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Dod101
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511753

Postby Dod101 » July 5th, 2022, 7:55 am

I wonder if he has forgotten that he updated us only a few days ago? Maybe he sprays these missives around the world and has forgotten that he has already given us the benefit of his wisdom for this quarter?

Sadly there is nothing new in any of it.

Dod

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511755

Postby SalvorHardin » July 5th, 2022, 8:03 am

Dod101 wrote:I wonder if he has forgotten that he updated us only a few days ago? Maybe he sprays these missives around the world and has forgotten that he has already given us the benefit of his wisdom for this quarter?

Sadly there is nothing new in any of it.

Dod

I find that the "add foe" aka "ignore fool" button does the trick.

It's also been fairly effective to use on the remainer obsessives who never post about investment matters.

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511864

Postby XFool » July 5th, 2022, 2:49 pm

Dod101 wrote:I wonder if he has forgotten that he updated us only a few days ago? Maybe he sprays these missives around the world and has forgotten that he has already given us the benefit of his wisdom for this quarter?

Sadly there is nothing new in any of it.

Yeah. But it's still fun, isn't it? Livens the ole TLF up a bit. :)

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511897

Postby hiriskpaul » July 5th, 2022, 4:42 pm

Just read this thread. Hilarious! Long may it continue.

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#511905

Postby minnow » July 5th, 2022, 5:30 pm

It's very entertaining :)

I was mildly curious about the claims being made about CBA so I thought I'd do a little sleuthing. To help put the performance numbers into context, this page shows the annual returns for the Australian "all ordinaries accumulation" index going back to 1900 (it assumes that all divis are reinvested with no tax deducted) : https://topforeignstocks.com/wp-content ... c-2022.pdf. An arithmetic average of 13.2% (nominal) since 1900, that's not too shabby ! Compounding the index returns over the past 30 years gave 9.5% CAGR.

Doing the same for CBA gave 12% CAGR. At first glance CBA seems to be the clear winner. But the catch is that those returns come with significantly increased risk (measured by price volatility). The standard deviation of CBA's returns is 28%, versus only 16% for the index. To earn CBA's returns you had to endure some pretty wild price swings.

Not saying that CBA hasn't been a very good investment - it has. But seen through the lens of risk/return, I reckon that you'd have been better off buying the AOA index (perhaps with a little leverage) because you'd then be "paying" less risk for point unit of return. Plus of course, there'd be far less chance of getting Enron'd or Evraz'd (which is perhaps the more serious risk here)

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#512787

Postby Gilgongo » July 8th, 2022, 5:43 pm

This is an amazing thread and I think must deserve some sort of TLF prize! :D

What's also interesting about the OP is that the tone (and even much of the content) is very similar to some posts on other boards I've seen about crypto. Very long on "strategies" and "idiots", frequent punctuations of "think for yourself" and ignoring crowds while skating over obviously huge risks in what they are proposing. Is this some sort of investment "typology"?

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#512995

Postby GoSeigen » July 9th, 2022, 5:16 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
I still wonder what this guy is on?


At least he's consistent, I'll give him that.

He consistently creates a straw-man argument that he's the only one on this thread that thinks time in the market is advantageous, where in reality not one single person is disagreeing with him on that point.

He also consistently creates another straw-man argument that he's the only one on this thread that thinks compounding-returns can be helpful in delivering good long-term investment outcomes, where again, in reality not one single person is disagreeing with him on that point either.

He also consistently uses both of the above straw-man arguments to mask the only real concern that's regularly raised with him, and that's around the risk of doing all of the above 'good things' whilst holding only a two-stock portfolio...

He consistently ignores the risk of doing that, and he consistently takes the view that because there's never been any poor outcomes from holding his two-stock portfolio, that therefore means there never will be...

He consistently ignores the fact that 'risk' isn't just about the chances of something that he might consider to be unlikely actually *happening*, but it's also about the *potential impact* of it happening, if it actually does...

Many people might get away with it over a lifetime of investment, of course, but boy, what a shock it must be for those that wake up one morning and find out that they've not...



Agree with all the above.

Pastcaring would have us believe Lloyds is an extreme outlier whereas to my mind the only thing that made Lloyds an outlier was its sheer size and the precipitous speed of its failure from such a lofty height. The banking world was absolutely littered with similar failures around the same time: WaMu, Lehmans, WBS, Anglo Irish, BoI, Bradford & Bingley, Bear Stearns -- the list is endless and that's just one crisis. The OP has a serious inability to see the wood for the trees, dressed up in a strident self-serving bravado.

GS

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#516560

Postby Pastcaring » July 23rd, 2022, 5:06 am

GS What a load of rubbish ..The stupidity of correlation must be causation.
The big 4 banks here didn't go bust and didn't get anywhere near going bust ANZ,CBA,NAB,WBC.
What is it you feel you have proved by correlation must be causation stupidity.A lifetime of that stupidity and nothing else.
You bought 1000 shares in each of those banks in 1991.
In the order they are in the cost was $3K,$5.4K,$7K and $3K. Call it $19K.Reinvest the dividends for that 30 year period.Call it 5000 in each of them now @ $22 each,$97,$29and $20.Work it out for yourself.
The infinite stupidity of denialism.
From 1991 to today you got it wrong every day.How are you fixed for telling the truth. You know,honesty,facts and realityYou'd choose death over truth.

5000 shares in ANZ @ $22 each.
5000 shares in CBA @ $97 each
5000 shares in NAB @ $29 each
5000 shares in WBC @ $20 each.

Undeniable and easily checkable facts that you will deny.I'll point out again,denialism causes infinite stupidity.You will continue to deny facts and reality every day for the rest of your life,while amusing me.

The guy that actually took the time to check facts and reality is close enough There are a few errors in his post but,close enough.
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#516562

Postby Pastcaring » July 23rd, 2022, 5:33 am

Minnow the index you need is AXJOA ASX 200 accumulation index..Started on 1/1/80 at ($) 1000.As of yesterday ($)80,000.
Average annual income 1980 $10 K.Probably a bit more but roughly right. This grows to $800K over the 42.5 years.Average annual income now is $90K so 1 year"s wages grows to 9 years wages over that period.Unfortunately the costs and fees would need to be deducted,this would bring it back to 6 or 7 years wages.

CBA performed far better.Compound the shareholding @6% from 1991.The shareholding grows to 8000 after 36 years.Allow for error and say 8000 shares after 40 years.
In 2031 on 30/6 ( end of financial year here) 8000 shares at whatever the share price is.If it reaches $150 per share by then then you've turned $5400 into $1 million by doing nothing at all.
Well done for thinking.If you are still around in 2031 you'll know the answer.
The undeniable facts and reality across that 40 years will be denied every day So simple,and so obvious.

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#516563

Postby Pastcaring » July 23rd, 2022, 6:04 am

Minnow the error is too much.Checking my little book of facts,wages, inflation rates etc from 1970 on 1/1/80 average wages were $12900 a year.Call it $13K.
Multiply $13K by 80 and as of yesterday $13K compounded to $1.04 million.

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#516564

Postby Pastcaring » July 23rd, 2022, 6:59 am

[Deletion]

Throughout 1991 to today ANZ and WBC tracked each other The chart that comes up ( max) goes back to 8/1/99.
ANZ $10.76 a share.
WBC $11.00 a share.
CBA and NAB tracked each other until approx 2005. 1991 CBA $6 a share ,NAB$7 or $8 a share.
By the 8/1/99 still tracking each other CBA $23.10 a share,NAB $25.08 a share.
The cream rose to the top,CBA now $97,NAB now $30-$31.
Stop your dumb denialism and check the prices.You will still rather kill yourself than admit to facts and reality ,along with the herd.
ANZ and WBC are still tracking each other ANZ $22 or $23, and WBC at $20 to $21.
Buying 1000 of each pushed people a bit much,it meant spending around 18 months wages,give or take, on 8/1/99.
Leaving them alone to compound for 25 years means you double your shareholding twice roughly.
On the 31/12 /2024 you'know the result. 4000 shares in each of them.To allow for error bring that back to 3,600 shares in each of them.
You will still be denying that on 31/12/24.The fools that refuse to see their own folly..The never ending supply of [Substitution: people] that deny facts and reality
There's reality

3600 in ANZ
3600 in CBA
3600 in NAB
3600 in WBC.

Give me a laugh,show me how you are going to deny that
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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#516568

Postby Dod101 » July 23rd, 2022, 7:57 am

minnow wrote:It's very entertaining :)

I was mildly curious about the claims being made about CBA so I thought I'd do a little sleuthing. To help put the performance numbers into context, this page shows the annual returns for the Australian "all ordinaries accumulation" index going back to 1900 (it assumes that all divis are reinvested with no tax deducted) : https://topforeignstocks.com/wp-content ... c-2022.pdf. An arithmetic average of 13.2% (nominal) since 1900, that's not too shabby ! Compounding the index returns over the past 30 years gave 9.5% CAGR.

Doing the same for CBA gave 12% CAGR. At first glance CBA seems to be the clear winner. But the catch is that those returns come with significantly increased risk (measured by price volatility). The standard deviation of CBA's returns is 28%, versus only 16% for the index. To earn CBA's returns you had to endure some pretty wild price swings.

Not saying that CBA hasn't been a very good investment - it has. But seen through the lens of risk/return, I reckon that you'd have been better off buying the AOA index (perhaps with a little leverage) because you'd then be "paying" less risk for point unit of return. Plus of course, there'd be far less chance of getting Enron'd or Evraz'd (which is perhaps the more serious risk here)


I think our (that is the average TLF poster's) attitude to banks is, not surprisingly, based on our experience with the UK and US banks during the 2007/8 crisis. The Canadian banks sailed on serenely during it and so it would seem did the Aussie ones. Our very light regulation at that time allowed the stupidity/excessive ambition of Fred Goodwin at RBS and James Crosby and Andy Hornby at HBOS to do what they liked and as we all know they wrecked these banks for years to come and the banks survived only with huge Government bail outs. There was in fact almost no proper govern ance in the banks themselves nor iut would seem from the B of E.

The style and presentation of Pastcaring is not the way many of us would present our case but nevertheless..........

Dod

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Re: The 2 stock portfolio.

#516585

Postby csearle » July 23rd, 2022, 9:20 am

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