#554827
Postby yieldhog » December 14th, 2022, 6:50 pm
Several comments on this board have mentioned that it’s been a good year for dividends and my SIPP portfolio is no exception. Dividend income for 2022 was just over 30% up on 2021, a record level in the 15- years or so that I’ve been actively managing this portfolio. Dividend yield on the portfolio was 6.64%. As of today, the capital value of the fund is just 1- 2% above where it was at the start of the year and my drawdown rate for 2022 was 3.70%. During the year the portfolio reached a record high but has dropped back about 2-3% since then. Dividend income has always exceeded my fixed drawdown amount. In the last ten years, the lowest excess was 24% (2016) and the highest this year 79%.
My wife and I are in our mid-seventies, so the SIPP is structured towards income but with a growth element to enable us to increase the income level in the future if it’s needed. I’m in the process of trying to simplify the portfolio and reduce risk without sacrificing income generation. For the past couple of years I’ve been selling single company risk elements in favour of buying ITs and ETFs. Here’s where I am right now:
Fixed Income Individual Issues
GACA 8.875 Cum Pref
GACB 7.875 Cum Pref
MBSP 6.75 PIBS
SANB Pref
High Yield Fixed Income
NCYF
VSL
Large Cap UK Equities
AEI
BATS
IUKD
IMB
LGEN
MNG
PHNX
World ITs and ETFs
APAX (Global Alpha)
HFEL (Far East)
HINT (Non-UK Equity Income)
IAT (Asia x-Japan Equity Income)
IAPD (Asia)
JEGI (Europe G+I)
JGGI (Global G+I}
NAIT (North America)
Natural Resources
BERI (Energy and Resources)
BWRM (World Mining and Metals)
Small Cap And VC
BVT
Speculative Equities
BDEV, BWY, CMCX, ITV, POLY
Total number of positions is 29. Allocations are not equal, and no position is more than 6% of the portfolio.
The top ten contributors to dividend income in descending order are: NCYF, IMPS, BRWM, BATS, BVT, HFEL, AEI, PHNX, MNG, IUKD.
On the agenda for next year is to continue to simplify.
BVT has become very illiquid. I have sold half and will sell the other half early next year. The money will go into other existing positions.
I’d like to sell my remaining holding in MBSP. After holding them for several years without getting interest payments I eventually sold half my holding last year at about four times what they cost me. I would be giving up a running yield of close to 7.5% but it might be worth it to buy something more liquid and better quality.
One issue I am wary about is the use of leverage in most ITs. I’m not against leverage but it can have a devastating effect on a fund’s value if it becomes a forced seller in a bad market situation. With interest rates rising and the likelihood of more bankruptcies next year it’s going to be critical for leveraged funds to have reliable financing available. I prefer low or unleveraged funds like IUKD.
In the Natural Resources sector BRWM and BERI have had a great run and I have already taken some profits. I wonder if we have seen the best in this cycle and I may take some more profits. The yields are no longer that good and I can move the proceeds somewhere else to improve the overall SIPP dividend yield.
APAX is an interesting one, but the yield has been a bit disappointing. However, it diversifies my SIPP into a sector that may produce some better returns next year. It’s not leveraged and at such a whopping discount to NAV (29%) I’ll probably leave it for now.
The speculative stocks in my list are small positions that I think have some good potential for capital gains. POLY was a bet on Russia not invading Ukraine and, clearly, I lost that bet, but there is still hope for the company even if it takes a few years. ITV was a bet on new management extracting better value from this company and I believe it is on track to do so. While waiting for that, the yield is not too bad. I was probably a bit early to get into BDEV and BWY but again I believe they will come good in a year or two and the yields will probably be reasonable. CMCX was a bet on consolidation in the broker sector and hence the prospect of a bid for CMCX. No sign of that at the moment so I might sell it.
With my weightings the prospective dividend yield for next year looks like 6.94% at my book prices but only 6.47% at current prices. I’d like to see the current yield back up to nearer 7%. One IT I’d like to buy to help get the yield up is SMIF, but my broker (ii) doesn’t allow retail buying of that issue.
More fundamentally, setting all this information out is making me ask myself “Am I making my life too complicated by managing my SIPP the way I do and, if so, can I make it radically simpler without significantly undermining the results that I have been achieving for more than fifteen years”.
If the answer to that is “Yes” then what’s the alternative?
To take one simple alternative, I compared the results of my SIPP for 2022 with an investment in just two ETFs, IUKD and IAPD, both of which I already own in the portfolio.
On a very basic level, this is what it looks like:
SIPP Total Return YTD 0.70%
IUKD Total Return YTD -1.79%
SIPP Dividend Return 6.64%
IUKD Dividend Return 5.90%
IAPD Total Return -4.34%
IAPD Dividend Return 7.11%
SIPP Drawdown 3.70%
In summary, taking a 50/50 split of IUKD and IAPD, produced a dividend return of about 6.50%, only slightly below the SIPP dividend return but well above the SIPP drawdown rate of 3.70%.
As to whether this is the way forward for me, I will need to do an analysis over a longer time period to see if a longer history produces a similar picture. But it’s certainly food for thought.
There are several considerations that are unique to my situation as well as the more general considerations that would apply to anyone else thinking along these lines. Has anyone else been thinking of drastically simplifying a SIPP portfolio or already done so for whatever reason? If so, I would be grateful if you could share your thoughts/experience with me.
Best wishes and happy holidays to all TLF watchers/posters.
Y