Urbandreamer wrote:Pastcaring wrote:Quick bit of Google work,all numbers rounded
Average wages 1955 £500
Gold £35 an ounce,so 14 ounces .
Today @ £ 880 per ounce I think you said those 14 ounces are worth £12K rounded.
If average wages are £30K then over the 63 years your return is 150% ,you don't think that is a rubbish return?
Should history repeat then in 63 years time gild will still be a rubbish investment.What would you say.
Quick Google came up with US average wages@ $58K.
Working on Ford's wages, gold has produced slightly better than average wage growth
Oh dear, where to start. First I am not a gold bug and have NEVER argued that it provides a good return. I just disagree with your opinion that a zero real return is rubbish.
Next where did you get your figures from?
Gold was $35 per oz in 1955 was the exchange rate really $1=£1 in 1955 as you seem to claim?
Was average wages really £500pa in 1955?
According to Hansard
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hans ... y-earningsit was 217s 5d pw so that's £565 5s 8d (I assumed paid holidays so multiplied by 52) more than 10% higher than your figure.
I'm not altogether convinced that talking about the average wage on an entire contenent can make any sense, but I found this link.
https://wallethacks.com/average-median- ... n-america/It doesn't put the median US average wage at $58k, but at $30k
I repeat, just where did you get your figures. I provided links.
(EDIT) I also didn't claim that £880 was TODAY'S price. My link was for data from 55-2010 so I used 2010's price.
As for links:
Re bullion dealers wanting to trade gold, I assumed that was taken as read.
Can you provide any information that contridicts their historic data. I personally would assume that providing fraudulent investment data for pecunary gain would be illegal in most countries.
You said today's gold price £ 879,you don't think that is anywhere near £880?
The rest of my post down to midnight here and me watching Korea v Germany.Not paying attention.
As I said quick Google ,average US wages came up with $58K.I didn't see household income,I asked for average wages.Same for the UK,gold price came up with 35, so £35.
Wages came up at £500 rounded,close enough for me,but you are welcome to split hairs.
I went to bed after the game,settled down,then it hit me,35 would be US $ ,the gold standard.I wasn' t going to get out of bed to correct it .The rest is very easy
Old Henry paid his men $5 for a 9 hour day,56 cents an hour,bring it to modern times and 40 hours for 52 weeks x .56 $1165 annual income,rounded.That is 33.3 ounces of gold.
Today that 33.3 ounces at 1265 is $42,125 ,rounded. The Ford website tells you assembly workers today get $ 45 K per annum,I take it that is 40 hours at 52 weeks.Are you happy with a return of zero.
Median wages would needed to be worked out on median wages back in 1914 .
100 year return is zero.Each year and decade will give different results.
1980 gold hit a top of around $850, today $1265 ish,I haven' t looked, a far worse return than zero.Are you happy with 50% over 38 years ( rounded).
The gold myth arises because of one 9 year period ,from 1971 to 1980
1971 $35 an ounce, 1980 $850 an ounce,a huge return that makes a mess of calculations
56 years of rubbish,fixed price, no income.1980 on ,return of less than zero ,inflation adjusted.One period of WOW.
There are many points in history to guide us.One obvious one is the Dow in 1929. A top of 380 ( 11 ounces of gold ).Today 11 ounces are worth 11 x $ 1265 $14 K ( rounded ).The Dow creams it, 24,000 plus all that dividend income.I like to think long term.
Every start date gives a different result.Tomorrow with that 38 year history of less than zero returns would you buy gold?
Would you expect huge changes in the future.Start that at 1970 and gold gives a very good return,are you expecting gold to go through a once in a hundred year boom again in your lifetime ,I'm not
I think in the future it will plod on giving zero returns. Trading gold if you get it right would produce some reasonable returns
I think it will do exactly as it says on the tin,good hedge against inflation,zero returns.
Put average annual income now into gold and over the long term I would think you will get back annual average income.
If that theory was written around 1980 then that theory will be greatly influenced by that 9 year period.The following 38 years show how bad gold is.