monabri wrote:Unless DT gets impeached first ...that too might provide a good opportunity.
I suppose the markets will react, but I'm not sure what the effect would be on £/$ or MasterCard valuation to be honest.
Matt
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monabri wrote:Unless DT gets impeached first ...that too might provide a good opportunity.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:monabri wrote:Unless DT gets impeached first ...that too might provide a good opportunity.
I suppose the markets will react, but I'm not sure what the effect would be on £/$ ......
Matt
PrefInvestor wrote:TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:monabri wrote:Unless DT gets impeached first ...that too might provide a good opportunity.
I suppose the markets will react, but I'm not sure what the effect would be on £/$ ......
Matt
Hi Matt, I keep thinking about buying some Microsoft shares, but always find something to put me off TBH. I did a bit of analysis over the weekend to see what effect the recent rise in the GBP vs the USD has been, see spreadsheet extract below:-
So with the 1% currency charge on both buying and selling made by my broker that would have just about wiped out all my gains had I bought on 9th October. However with a further upward move of the GBP likely to perhaps 1.35-1.40 from the election from what I have read I am once again discouraged from acting now.
All that said the YTD figures clearly show that the investment would have been worthwhile.
ATB
Pref
PS Recently sold all my UKW close to 149 on the basis that I cant see it going much higher and the yield is now only ~4.5%. Am switching to one of the other renewables.
SalvorHardin wrote:This week's Economist has a good article about Disney's streaming service and how the entertainment industry is being changed by streaming.
It's not all a bed of roses; competition is heating up and a lot of money is being thrown at producing programmes. It's impossible to see most of what you would like to see nowadays because there are so many good series being made. Great for consumers, but not so good for investors. Apple in particular seems to have spent a huge amount for very little.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Wow.
Has anyone mentioned Coca cola (NYSE:KO) on this thread yet? Isn't that one of Buffett's faves? I don't own any but it's certainly on my radar to research and run the numbers.
I see it's running, according to google https://www.google.com/search?q=coca+co ... 8&oe=utf-8 at about 30x earnings, which just at my topmost buying range. But perhaps it's worth a punt.
Any opinions on this one, people?
Matt
simoan wrote:TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Wow.
Has anyone mentioned Coca cola (NYSE:KO) on this thread yet? Isn't that one of Buffett's faves? I don't own any but it's certainly on my radar to research and run the numbers.
I see it's running, according to google https://www.google.com/search?q=coca+co ... 8&oe=utf-8 at about 30x earnings, which just at my topmost buying range. But perhaps it's worth a punt.
Any opinions on this one, people?
Matt
I don't know where you got that earnings multiple from? My data tells me the forward P/E is a smidge over 24 based on forecast 2020 EPS of $2.26 USD. I don't have a view on Coke because I already own PepsiCo which is slightly cheaper at 23x 2020 EPS.
All the best, Si
simoan wrote:I don't know where you got that earnings multiple from? My data tells me the forward P/E is a smidge over 24 based on forecast 2020 EPS of $2.26 USD. I don't have a view on Coke because I already own PepsiCo which is slightly cheaper at 23x 2020 EPS.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:My current angst re. buying anymore US shares, is that the SP500 is flying so high right now. I'm wondering if a small correction is in the post.
Matt
simoan wrote:TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:My current angst re. buying anymore US shares, is that the SP500 is flying so high right now. I'm wondering if a small correction is in the post.
Matt
If you're worried about a correction, you'd never have invested in the past few years and missed out on big gains in the S&P 500.
I read a comment elsewhere today that on a forward PEG basis the S&P is slightly better value than the FTSE.
I would just concentrate on finding individual companies on reasonable valuations and let the index look after itself.
It would be a rare occurrence for the US market to go south in an election year and once all the posturing stops I would anticipate a post US-China trade war bounce.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:simoan wrote:TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:My current angst re. buying anymore US shares, is that the SP500 is flying so high right now. I'm wondering if a small correction is in the post.
Matt
If you're worried about a correction, you'd never have invested in the past few years and missed out on big gains in the S&P 500.
Don't forget Mel and I only started investing in shares in March 2018, and our first exposure to US shares was sometime this summer with Walt Disney.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I read a comment elsewhere today that on a forward PEG basis the S&P is slightly better value than the FTSE.
Ok. Thanks - that's interesting to know. I guess my Devil's Advocate remark would be presumably the Earnings jump was mostly due to the Tax cuts a la Trump. So it does not necessarily speak volumes about US-side efficiencies. And on that note, does the comment to which you refer (re. forward PEG) price in potential tax cuts in a future UK, out of interest?
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I would just concentrate on finding individual companies on reasonable valuations and let the index look after itself.
I'm sure you're right Si. Hopefully that's what I've been doing so far. So far we have Walt Disney DIS, Microsoft MSFT, Macdonalds MCD and Intel INTC. I'm definitely sticking to big brands, which seem to be cash generative (in some cases have net cash on BSs).It would be a rare occurrence for the US market to go south in an election year and once all the posturing stops I would anticipate a post US-China trade war bounce.
Well Coca-cola will be my next port of call - and possibly Facebook at sometime. In terms of your last remark, my concern isn't really if the market goes south in the next year or so, but really whether the US market pricing currently represents long term value - for example in a changed US, say in a few years time with a prudent Government with higher taxes and higher interest rates. I suppose in that case, by my best insurance against this, is when I run the numbers, for example on Coca-cola, I check that the ONs (e.g. PE, PEG, yield) are comparable with the historic figures if and when I choose to buy.
TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Another thing which is telling me to slow down on purchasing US stocks is that by and large I've purchased them with £ to $ ratio being not that much more than 1.21 - 1.28. IOW I could see capital deprecation in these if sterling grows markedly, post Brexit, as compared to the growth of the stocks. Of course these are all unknowns, which I can't change or predict, but presumably should be aware of?
Matt
simoan wrote:TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I would just concentrate on finding individual companies on reasonable valuations and let the index look after itself.
I'm sure you're right Si. Hopefully that's what I've been doing so far. So far we have Walt Disney DIS, Microsoft MSFT, Macdonalds MCD and Intel INTC. I'm definitely sticking to big brands, which seem to be cash generative (in some cases have net cash on BSs).It would be a rare occurrence for the US market to go south in an election year and once all the posturing stops I would anticipate a post US-China trade war bounce.
Well Coca-cola will be my next port of call - and possibly Facebook at sometime. In terms of your last remark, my concern isn't really if the market goes south in the next year or so, but really whether the US market pricing currently represents long term value - for example in a changed US, say in a few years time with a prudent Government with higher taxes and higher interest rates. I suppose in that case, by my best insurance against this, is when I run the numbers, for example on Coca-cola, I check that the ONs (e.g. PE, PEG, yield) are comparable with the historic figures if and when I choose to buy.
You're overthinking things.
The future is always unknown and you have to invest on that basis. Concentrate on things you can control like picking good companies, holding them preferably forever but dumping them when something goes seriously wrong.
SalvorHardin wrote:1) Coca Cola. This used to be the textbook example of a strong moat company with a very simple product. Nowadays I don't think that its moat is anything like as strong. It's all to do with sugar consumption, particularly changing consumer tastes and governments increasing taxes on sugar.
A great place for information about Coca Cola the brand, rather than the numbers, is Mark Pendergrast's "For God, Country and Coca-Cola" , the best book I've ever read on a single company (yes, better IMHO than any of the Berkshire Hathaway and Union Pacific books).
2) US dollar vs Sterling. I've long held the view that over the long term sterling will decline against the dollar. America has a big advantage with the world using the dollar as it's reserve currency and safe haven, whilst Britain is addicted to devaluing its currency and running a current account deficit. I see nothing to change this. The rise of China will make more people nervous, favouring the dollar. Short term, I haven't a clue. I recently moved some dollars back into sterling at just below $1.20 to £1, but that was driven more by the need to raise cash to take a big punt on central London property.
3) Roku. This company has just appeared on my radar due to my buying one of their products (to replace an old Amazon Fire Stick). Roku makes streaming media players, selling to consumers and Smart TV manufacturers. In June 2019 it was reported that in the first quarter of 2019, some 89% of TVs sold in America were Smart TVs with Roku's technology being in 37% of them.
https://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php?s ... 1564056000
https://deadline.com/2019/06/rokus-lead ... 202638383/
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/ ... share.aspx
Roku is on the edge of my "circle of competence"; I'm happy to make a judgment on the media aspect of the company but less so with the technology. That's because all too often a seemingly dominant technology has been suddenly replaced by a competitor seemingly out of nowhere (at least to someone like me who doesn't follow the sector). That's why I generally avoid information technology focused companies. Streaming is clearly going to be the primary way of receiving video entertainment - the question is how much of this market can Roku take and can it become the dominant gateway?
flyer61 wrote:Point 2 of Salvor Hardin's post is my world view as well. I think it was Terry Smith who said currency only made up some 7% of his overall performance. It is the Companies you back that really matters. So no Centrica etc.
Facebook.....whilst the merits of it's use is debatable the financial machine is undoubted. Some of my friends must live on it, so every advertisers dream. Yes their are regulatory hurdles but it is not going to go away anytime soon. If it is ever able to fully monetise what it has built it will be a global financial juggernaut.
Matt - what about more Disney or a US REIT? I recently bought my wife some shares in Corecivic CVX (her SIPP is set up for maximum income).....or you could try something like APLE Reit.
SalvorHardin wrote:3) Roku. This company has just appeared on my radar due to my buying one of their products (to replace an old Amazon Fire Stick). Roku makes streaming media players, selling to consumers and Smart TV manufacturers. In June 2019 it was reported that in the first quarter of 2019, some 89% of TVs sold in America were Smart TVs with Roku's technology being in 37% of them.
https://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php?s ... 1564056000
https://deadline.com/2019/06/rokus-lead ... 202638383/
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/ ... share.aspx
Roku is on the edge of my "circle of competence"; I'm happy to make a judgment on the media aspect of the company but less so with the technology. That's because all too often a seemingly dominant technology has been suddenly replaced by a competitor seemingly out of nowhere (at least to someone like me who doesn't follow the sector). That's why I generally avoid information technology focused companies. Streaming is clearly going to be the primary way of receiving video entertainment - the question is how much of this market can Roku take and can it become the dominant gateway?
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