What is your pick for the next decade?

[hiriskpaul]

Following on from the recent thread viewtopic.php?f=8&t=21045, if you had to pick one investment for the next decade what would it be?

The criteria is simply that it must be something you would be prepared to buy and not touch for a decade, other than reinvesting dividends. It should be a listed ISA allowable investment, but could be a single stock/bond, or a collective. Assume it is held in an ISA, so no concerns over income tax or final CGT. It could be crammed full of risk, such as a small AIM stock, or something like a Vanguard LifeStrategy fund - your choice.

To start the ball rolling, I will go for the iShares Emerging Markets ETF EMIM. Global emerging markets have significantly underperformed developed markets over the last decade, but that has left valuations much lower and EM economies are likely to grow faster than developed economies, so I think the next decade will be better for global EM.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

MasterCard.

(But I was tempted to go for DP Poland.)

Best wishes

Mark.

[Dod101]

As I keep asking people with this sort of question, what do you want from it? Something as simple a total return?

If so the least risky option is obviously a big generalist IT such as F & C. A much more risky option would be something like Unilever.

I know little of securities quoted on other markets but those are both exposed to international markets anyway.

Dod

[PrincessB]

I also don't have the answer to that question. I tend to stay pretty much fully invested and have just moved 1.5 investment sized units of cash from savings into ISA. Whether that translates into a single buy or two smaller buys is dependent on research and I'm a bit out of ideas at present.

I'm looking for something with a yield of around 3% give or take, a growth rate of 10% in an area which can support that growth for a considerable time.

I'm pretty sure copper demand is going to acclerate as electric power requirements increase. Does anyone know of a wiring company?

Some computer chip designers (Ahem AMD - Have position) are doing rather well but for a decade hold, perhaps not.

Medical is interesting, I've maintained that there is an ongoing battle between the concepts of chemical medical (drugs and stuff) and engineered medical (artificial hips and the like).

My take is that engineered solutions are less costly as you don't need the trials so those that do precision hips and teeth and 3D printing can provide exact replicas of the bits that are being replaced.

On the other hand, we've got more computer power and over the next decade we are going to have a whole lot more, so molecular simulation of promising drugs will become more targeted and I hope to see a few game changer drugs appear along the way.

Amusingly, the fashion industry created skinny jeans and promoted the gym body to fit into them. When people started going to the gym to fit the skinnies, the fashion people tried to design their way out of the hole they had created. After all, if you're pretty comfortable with a super skin tight outfit, why would you wear something baggy again? As far as I can observe, any girl (regardless of age) who can get away with it, wears it and the best efforts to promote baggies and flares are not working.

Where we are going fashion wise is as much of a mystery to me as it is to the people who create this stuff, I suspect that clothing might get even more revealing over the decade for those of a certain shape, perhaps gym shares might be worth considering if old fat blokes don't go to the pub any more?

B.

[hiriskpaul]

As I keep asking people with this sort of question, what do you want from it? Something as simple a total return?

If so the least risky option is obviously a big generalist IT such as F & C. A much more risky option would be something like Unilever.

I know little of securities quoted on other markets but those are both exposed to international markets anyway.

Dod

I don't want to be too prescriptive, but imagine this as one of Warren Buffett's tickets with 20 spaces to fill on it. Whatever you choose you have to live with it for 10 years (at least). Other than that, the question is what do you want and expect from the investment? Not me. For example, you might want to take on high specific risk with a single stock, as ADrunkenMarcus has done, or go for something intrinsically diversified, such as the IT you mentioned. If it is an IT, which IT is your best pick for a decade long investment? Think of it as the first investment you would place in a slot on Warren Buffett's ticket.

[hiriskpaul]

@PrincessB, Do you not have something you are already invested in that you would be comfortable holding for the long term? What is your best bet for the next decade?

[PinkDalek]

@PrincessB, Do you not have something you are already invested in that you would be comfortable holding for the long term? What is your best bet for the next decade?

I thought PrincessB's vote was for https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/GB00BZBX0P70GBGBXSSMM.html?lang=en.

[JoyofBricks8]

Amazon.

[Dod101]

As I keep asking people with this sort of question, what do you want from it? Something as simple a total return?

If so the least risky option is obviously a big generalist IT such as F & C. A much more risky option would be something like Unilever.

I know little of securities quoted on other markets but those are both exposed to international markets anyway.

Dod

I don't want to be too prescriptive, but imagine this as one of Warren Buffett's tickets with 20 spaces to fill on it. Whatever you choose you have to live with it for 10 years (at least). Other than that, the question is what do you want and expect from the investment? Not me. For example, you might want to take on high specific risk with a single stock, as ADrunkenMarcus has done, or go for something intrinsically diversified, such as the IT you mentioned. If it is an IT, which IT is your best pick for a decade long investment? Think of it as the first investment you would place in a slot on Warren Buffett's ticket.

Thanks. Being a conservative soul, I think I would eschew a single stock but go for Scottish Mortgage.

Dod

[Bagger46]

I don’t think there is any chance whatever that I will be here in 10 years time.

However, hoping I am wrong, my first reaction was FOUR, or MasterCard, both long held, and real winners among the stars in my two distinct portfolios.

But after Trump having just potentially set fire to the powder keg, I think the winner will be China, who must be having a good laugh at his stupidity, not the deed, which was probably overdue, but the blatant admission of what he could have done more cleverly on the quiet.

So I plonk for


ICBC CREDIT SUISSE UCITS ETF SICAV WISDOMTREE S&P CHINA 500 B USD(GBP) (CHIP)

Bagger

Outside markets our best investment going forward will be our family and friends. Money wise it might be a rubbish piece of land nobody wanted so we got for a song that we bought a few years ago, which might be getting permission soon to plonk a small warehouse and very small industrial estate on it, because of a nice bit of bypass they built nearby. In hope terms of course it could be our Premium bonds!

[everhopeful]

I have held Bloomsbury for a few years and it is up three fold in capital terms and still yields 3%. Although it may not shoot the lights out like some of the big tech in the last decade I think its growth potential and defensive qualities justify it as a single share recommendation.

[Walrus101]

For me I'm primarily invested in themes

Healthcare
Infrastructure
Natural Resources
Quality Companies
Emerging markets


If pushed as a one investment choice I'd swing for JPM Russia, which pretty much crosses them.

Single share I would cheat and lump for Berkshire Hathaway. Really pushed Disney.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I should say that I'm planning to add markedly to my MasterCard holding. I bought it in April 2019 and did not have enough funds for a full position, so will remedy it this April 2020. I expect the Dollar will be stronger than the Pound, long term. I'm sure I'm in the younger category of the contributors here so I hope to hold it for a long time to come.

I think consumer spending will grow; I think the non-cash element of consumer spending will grow; I think online payments will grow; I think ApplePay will grow; I think the Apple Card will grow; I think there's an opportunity in B2B payments; I think there's opportunity in analytics; and I think MasterCard has a very strong 'moat'... No moat is impregnable, but you could halve or even reduce to a third MasterCard's current operating margin (56% in 2018), cash return on invested capital (44% in 2018) and return on capital employed (64% in 2018) and it will still be attractive IMHO.

On the basis that MasterCard can at least maintain its current operating margins (they're still growing and expected to hit 60% in 2021) then I don't think it implausible that they could grow earnings per share at 15% CAGR for at least another decade. Forecasts out to 2024 are ahead of that and the recent dividend increase was 21%. They also buyback lots of shares and it's forecast to have 62% of its earnings in cash on the balance sheet in 2021, despite large dividend increases and an expected continuation of its buyback programme. We'll see what happens.

Assuming 15% CAGR from the $10.70 per share forecast earnings for 2021 gets me to $37.64 per share earnings in 2030 and a p/e of 27.5 (much lower than currently) gets us to a share price of $1,035.1 up from today's $300. The same £/$ exchange rate (I think, in reality, the £ is likely to lose ground) gets a share price of £797 or 245% capital gain, plus dividends on top. (There's certainly downside as well but I think you could, equally, assume a higher p/e and a more favourable exchange rate and get to a 369% capital gain.)

The issue with a share like this is if growth slows significantly and the valuation falls even further then your returns will fall off markedly.

Best wishes

Mark.

[tjh290633]

Everything I have was bought for the long term. The question for me is which will do best over the next 10 years. Should I look at what has done best over the last 10 years? That includes the recovery from the 2008-10 hiatus. Not many survived that period, but I reckon that any company which maintained its dividend throughout will be a good bet.

A quick look suggests that Compass, Diageo, IMI, and Unilever stand out. The big global ITs have all performed well, FCIT being marginally the best. Miners and oils have their ups and downs, while tobacco has question marks about it.

Were I to fancy having a bet, I might choose a bookie like William Hill. Will they still be here in 10 years from now?

TJH

[monabri]

Were I to fancy having a bet, I might choose a bookie like William Hill. Will they still be here in 10 years from now?

TJH

I wonder what odds they'd give you if you were to try to place that bet?

On second thoughts...if they're not there to pay out.....

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Cranswick (CWK)

AiYn'U

[hiriskpaul]

Some interesting suggestions so far. Keep them coming please and try to pick just one investment (I know it is not easy to choose). No problem if you want to pick something already mentioned.

Edit: I think I should widen to 2 picks per person. 1 for a single share (and yes Berkshire Hathaway would be allowed) and 1 collective. I will form and track a virtual portfolio from the suggestions.

[kempiejon]

Some interesting suggestions so far. Keep them coming please and try to pick just one investment (I know it is not easy to choose). No problem if you want to pick something already mentioned.

Edit: I think I should widen to 2 picks per person. 1 for a single share (and yes Berkshire Hathaway would be allowed) and 1 collective. I will form and track a virtual portfolio from the suggestions.

Vanguard all world etf VWRL for the collective please.

[james51]

Single share: Halma
Collective: Invesco EQQQ etf

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Edit: I think I should widen to 2 picks per person. 1 for a single share (and yes Berkshire Hathaway would be allowed) and 1 collective. I will form and track a virtual portfolio from the suggestions.

In addition to MasterCard, Smithson will be my collective. (I hold 42% of my SIPP in it!)

Best wishes

Mark.