What is your pick for the next decade?

[SalvorHardin]

Operating company: Brookfield Asset Management.

Canadian real asset owner and manager, specialising in renewable energy, infrastructure and commercial property, plus money management. Controls something like US$500 billion of assets (its own and its clients').

Unlike the UK Infrastructure funds it pays a relatively small dividend. The new Berkshire Hathaway IMHO. Very patient management culture; has made a habit of buying assets from "distressed" sellers and improving them.

Brookfield is my second biggest holding (Disney is first; it would be my second pick for this thread)

Collective: JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust. IMHO India will eventually outpace China, and it's a lot less corrupt with more secure property rights.

[PinkDalek]

Some interesting suggestions so far. Keep them coming please and try to pick just one investment (I know it is not easy to choose). ...

I'll stick with boring old Nestlé SA as I have for last 40 years or so and, if around, will continue for the next 10 years at least.

It probably doesn't satisfy your Assume it is held in an ISA, so no concerns over income tax or final CGT. due to the Swiss withholding tax complications.

Prior discussion on Nestlé SA (also on this board) in the somewhat different:

The 2 stock portfolio.
viewtopic.php?p=224243#p224243

Spot the deliberate mistake over there. The random chart for Nestlé SA (NESN), which can be taken back to 1990, was in CHF and not sterling:

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/market-research/SWX:NESN

Before anyone says it, I'm fully aware that Past performance of shares is not an indication to their future performance. The value of shares or income from them may go down as well as up, as we all know, but I'm comfortable in my skin despite the exchange rate risk etc.

I don't do collectives, so no selection there I'm afraid.

[PrincessB]

PrincessB, Do you not have something you are already invested in that you would be comfortable holding for the long term? What is your best bet for the next decade?

My portfolio is a mess for various reasons. I've got a few multi-baggers knocking around that I don't intend to sell, so I'll just do two I like.

First is AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) quite where we'll be in 2030 is a mystery as they are on a serious roll at present and that can't last.

I do hold these, a recent purchase at $35ish.

Second is Kingspan (KGP) they make insulation among other things and are also on a roll.

Don't own these, fundamentals look a bit high and yield is <1% so not in my normal purchase zone.

I aim for long term growth backed up by a dividend of 3-4%. I can see the case for the growth, houses are getting more complicated and there are more people each year. Seem to have decent global reach and are a well known brand.

B.

[Bouleversee]

I'm not a gambler so wouldn't have only one pick. I'd want to spread the risk over at least 5 and even then it comes down to pure luck. Who can possibly know what is going to happen to the various categories, let alone individual shares? I was thinking of getting out of oil till Trump started droning big-wigs without reference to other leaders and oil shares immediately shot up. The latest ruling re vaping products will have a big effect on tobacco shares but the jury is still out on which way that will go. The bigger picture will determine outcome regardless of the merits of individual companies and as we know there are more than enough surprises within them. Much can change overnight let alone over a decade. Make a list of your best bets and use a pin or just buy a global index trust.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Cranswick (CWK)

AiYn'U

Dart Group (DTG) (2nd Pick - after HP's edit)

AiYn'U

[OLTB]

Morning all

My selections would be:

Individual stock: something healthcare and AI based so Ixico (IXI).

Fund: I can only see tech increasing its influence so EQQQ.

Cheers, OLTB.

[dealtn]

I should say that I'm planning to add markedly to my MasterCard holding. I bought it in April 2019 and did not have enough funds for a full position, so will remedy it this April 2020. I expect the Dollar will be stronger than the Pound, long term. I'm sure I'm in the younger category of the contributors here so I hope to hold it for a long time to come.
...

I'm confused. Why would you have an underweight position in your "top" pick? You have investments elsewhere that you think are lower down your pecking order, yet wait a year to add to your first choice, if I'm reading that correctly. Why not sell your "bottom" pick and "add markedly" to your top one?

Genuine question by the way, not trying to be smart. Or have I misinterpreted what you are saying/doing?

[ADrunkenMarcus]

I should say that I'm planning to add markedly to my MasterCard holding. I bought it in April 2019 and did not have enough funds for a full position, so will remedy it this April 2020. I expect the Dollar will be stronger than the Pound, long term. I'm sure I'm in the younger category of the contributors here so I hope to hold it for a long time to come.
...

I'm confused. Why would you have an underweight position in your "top" pick? You have investments elsewhere that you think are lower down your pecking order, yet wait a year to add to your first choice, if I'm reading that correctly. Why not sell your "bottom" pick and "add markedly" to your top one?

I expect to have an overweight position. I did initiate the position through the partial sale of another holding. Now I have capital available for new investment, MasterCard will represent my single largest individual company holding in a few weeks' time, so it will be overweight.

I don't like to chop and change and incur trading and other costs. I've also got many holdings I wouldn't want to tinker with, including Renishaw (2011) which has a share price gain of 21% CAGR for me; Diploma (2012), gaining 23.4% CAGR; Spirax Sarco Engineering (2015), gaining 30% CAGR.

Best wishes

Mark.

[dealtn]

I should say that I'm planning to add markedly to my MasterCard holding. I bought it in April 2019 and did not have enough funds for a full position, so will remedy it this April 2020. I expect the Dollar will be stronger than the Pound, long term. I'm sure I'm in the younger category of the contributors here so I hope to hold it for a long time to come.
...

I'm confused. Why would you have an underweight position in your "top" pick? You have investments elsewhere that you think are lower down your pecking order, yet wait a year to add to your first choice, if I'm reading that correctly. Why not sell your "bottom" pick and "add markedly" to your top one?

I expect to have an overweight position. I did initiate the position through the partial sale of another holding. Now I have capital available for new investment, MasterCard will represent my single largest individual company holding in a few weeks' time, so it will be overweight.

I don't like to chop and change and incur trading and other costs. I've also got many holdings I wouldn't want to tinker with, including Renishaw (2011) which has a share price gain of 21% CAGR for me; Diploma (2012), gaining 23.4% CAGR; Spirax Sarco Engineering (2015), gaining 30% CAGR.

Best wishes

Mark.

Fair enough, we are all different. The way I see my portfolio is that capital is always available. I can sell anything at any time, and reinvest in new or existing holdings accordingly. I try not to over trade, and incur unnecessary costs, but if I have a view that stock A (whether I hold or not) is "better" than stock B that I hold, I don't worry about selling B to invest in A. I'm not waiting until I have sufficient free cash available for a new investment in A.

There will be genuine constraints on this in terms of concentration risk, and CGT management, but I run a total return portfolio, not a rules constrained strategy that some others on this site adopt, so it is easy for me to be flexible. At the end of the day it is for each of us to adopt a strategy that works for ourselves, whatever that is, so no judgement or criticism is meant or implied to you, or others here, just because I do things "differently".

Good luck.

[hiriskpaul]

PrincessB, Do you not have something you are already invested in that you would be comfortable holding for the long term? What is your best bet for the next decade?

My portfolio is a mess for various reasons. I've got a few multi-baggers knocking around that I don't intend to sell, so I'll just do two I like.

First is AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) quite where we'll be in 2030 is a mystery as they are on a serious roll at present and that can't last.

I do hold these, a recent purchase at $35ish.

Second is Kingspan (KGP) they make insulation among other things and are also on a roll.

Don't own these, fundamentals look a bit high and yield is <1% so not in my normal purchase zone.

I aim for long term growth backed up by a dividend of 3-4%. I can see the case for the growth, houses are getting more complicated and there are more people each year. Seem to have decent global reach and are a well known brand.

B.

Thanks for suggestions. Second choice should be a collective investment of some sort (IT/UT/ETF).

[hiriskpaul]

Cranswick (CWK)

AiYn'U

Dart Group (DTG) (2nd Pick - after HP's edit)

AiYn'U

As with PrincessB, I am looking for a collective investment for a second choice.

[hiriskpaul]

Here is a summary of current picks. Thanks to all for the suggestions:

ADrunkenMarcus
  MasterCard
  Smithson 

Dod
  Scottish Mortgage.

Bagger46
  ICBC CREDIT SUISSE UCITS ETF SICAV WISDOMTREE S&P CHINA 500 B USD(GBP) (CHIP)

Walrus101
  JPM Russia
  Berkshire Hathaway

tjh290633
  FCIT?
  Compass, Diageo, IMI, and Unilever, William Hill - Please pick one, or something else

AsleepInYorkshire
  Cranswick (CWK)

kempiejon
  Vanguard all world etf VWRL

james51
  Halma
  EQQQ

SalvorHardin
  Brookfield Asset Management.
  JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust

PinkDalek
  Nestlé SA (NESN)

OLTB
  Ixico (IXI)
  EQQQ

PrincessB
  AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)

EQQQ has been picked twice, which is fine. If anyone else wants to join in, please do. Best ideas for a decade long investment, anything from safe and boring to all out risk. One stock and one collective investment per person, so only your top picks please!

[IanTHughes]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)


Ian

[hiriskpaul]

Some interesting suggestions so far. Keep them coming please and try to pick just one investment (I know it is not easy to choose). ...

I'll stick with boring old Nestlé SA as I have for last 40 years or so and, if around, will continue for the next 10 years at least.

It probably doesn't satisfy your Assume it is held in an ISA, so no concerns over income tax or final CGT. due to the Swiss withholding tax complications.

Prior discussion on Nestlé SA (also on this board) in the somewhat different:

The 2 stock portfolio.
viewtopic.php?p=224243#p224243

Spot the deliberate mistake over there. The random chart for Nestlé SA (NESN), which can be taken back to 1990, was in CHF and not sterling:

https://www.youinvest.co.uk/market-research/SWX:NESN

Before anyone says it, I'm fully aware that Past performance of shares is not an indication to their future performance. The value of shares or income from them may go down as well as up, as we all know, but I'm comfortable in my skin despite the exchange rate risk etc.

I don't do collectives, so no selection there I'm afraid.

ISA not an overriding requirement, just want something listed and not overly complicated. Is it difficult to reclaim WHT if Nestlé is held in an ISA?

[hiriskpaul]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)


Ian

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

[hiriskpaul]

Here is a summary of current picks. Thanks to all for the suggestions:

ADrunkenMarcus
  MasterCard
  Smithson 

Dod
  Scottish Mortgage.

Bagger46
  ICBC CREDIT SUISSE UCITS ETF SICAV WISDOMTREE S&P CHINA 500 B USD(GBP) (CHIP)

Walrus101
  JPM Russia
  Berkshire Hathaway

tjh290633
  FCIT?
  Compass, Diageo, IMI, and Unilever, William Hill - Please pick one, or something else

AsleepInYorkshire
  Cranswick (CWK)

kempiejon
  Vanguard all world etf VWRL

james51
  Halma
  EQQQ

SalvorHardin
  Brookfield Asset Management.
  JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust

PinkDalek
  Nestlé SA (NESN)

OLTB
  Ixico (IXI)
  EQQQ

PrincessB
  AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)

EQQQ has been picked twice, which is fine. If anyone else wants to join in, please do. Best ideas for a decade long investment, anything from safe and boring to all out risk. One stock and one collective investment per person, so only your top picks please!

Forgot to add mine! iShares Global EM EMIM for the collective, still vacillating over the single stock.

[IanTHughes]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

No stand out pick but in accordance with your original definition .....

It should be a listed ISA allowable investment, but could be a single stock/bond, or a collective.

So, a "collection" of High Yield Shares in the form of a High Yield Portfolio (HYP).

I am sure that most here are well aware of the HYP selection criteria


Ian

[hiriskpaul]

Amazon.

Sorry, missed out this suggestion. Will add it in. Add a collective if you want as well.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

Cranswick (CWK)

AiYn'U

Dart Group (DTG) (2nd Pick - after HP's edit)

AiYn'U

As with PrincessB, I am looking for a collective investment for a second choice.

Whoops-a-daisy

Any chance I can get this one over the line please?

SL ASI UK Smaller Companies Pension Fund (SL = Standard Life)

AiYn'U

[Lootman]

If I think of this in terms of which of my positions are the largest and that I am unlikely to reduce or sell, then it is Apple (AAPL) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B).

The former is up something like 75% in 2019 despite being a huge company. And BRK can count as a quasi-collective and is my largest position in a single share. I have held both for many years whilst others have come and gone.