What is your pick for the next decade?

[IanTHughes]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

My apologies, my original response was rather brusque

The problem is that you are asking for a collective. In the case of HYP this would be a selection for a portfolio containing between 15 and 20 shares. To do such would take a couple of days to set out but, more importantly, it would need monitoring over the decade of your challenge! Given a couple of days, I could certainly come up with the constituents of an HYP as I would want it to stand right now, but I am not in a position to commit to the necessary monitoring over the next 10 years, are you?

If you want a selection that some would say was "close enough" then I can suggest the HYP entitled "PYAD HYP 2019_04 REINVEST" which is currently chronicled here: viewtopic.php?p=263538#p263538

It is not exactly as an HYPer would start out now, but it was only set up a few months ago. It will also be closely monitored by myself, dividends and all, so hopefully, in a decade, you will have the information that you need for your challenge.


Ian

[PinkDalek]

[It probably doesn't satisfy your Assume it is held in an ISA, so no concerns over income tax or final CGT. due to the Swiss withholding tax complications.

Prior discussion on Nestlé SA (also on this board) in the somewhat different:

The 2 stock portfolio.
viewtopic.php?p=224243#p224243 ...

ISA not an overriding requirement, just want something listed and not overly complicated. Is it difficult to reclaim WHT if Nestlé is held in an ISA?

It is hard enough to reclaim 20% (as against the full 35% deduction) from the Swiss Authorities in an unsheltered account. I’ve no idea about attempting to get brokers to reclaim if holding in an ISA but there isn’t a similar procedure to a W-8BEN (when broker supported), such that the treaty rate of 15% is applied ab initio, that I know of.

There’s plenty on the mechanics of reclaiming that 20%, via the Topic I referenced above, at this part here viewtopic.php?p=224518#p224518.

Some UK holders suffer the 35% and don’t bother (or even know how) to reclaim the excess and I’m not surprised!

[Bouleversee]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

My apologies, my original response was rather brusque

The problem is that you are asking for a collective. In the case of HYP this would be a selection for a portfolio containing between 15 and 20 shares. To do such would take a couple of days to set out but, more importantly, it would need monitoring over the decade of your challenge! Given a couple of days, I could certainly come up with the constituents of an HYP as I would want it to stand right now, but I am not in a position to commit to the necessary monitoring over the next 10 years, are you?

If you want a selection that some would say was "close enough" then I can suggest the HYP entitled "PYAD HYP 2019_04 REINVEST" which is currently chronicled here: viewtopic.php?p=263538#p263538

It is not exactly as an HYPer would start out now, but it was only set up a few months ago. It will also be closely monitored by myself, dividends and all, so hopefully, in a decade, you will have the information that you need for your challenge.


Ian

The original post requested either one share OR a collective. Why don't you just pick the HYP share you think will do best over a decade?

[IanTHughes]

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

My apologies, my original response was rather brusque

The problem is that you are asking for a collective. In the case of HYP this would be a selection for a portfolio containing between 15 and 20 shares. To do such would take a couple of days to set out but, more importantly, it would need monitoring over the decade of your challenge! Given a couple of days, I could certainly come up with the constituents of an HYP as I would want it to stand right now, but I am not in a position to commit to the necessary monitoring over the next 10 years, are you?

If you want a selection that some would say was "close enough" then I can suggest the HYP entitled "PYAD HYP 2019_04 REINVEST" which is currently chronicled here: viewtopic.php?p=263538#p263538

It is not exactly as an HYPer would start out now, but it was only set up a few months ago. It will also be closely monitored by myself, dividends and all, so hopefully, in a decade, you will have the information that you need for your challenge.

The original post requested either one share OR a collective.

High Yield Portfolio (HYP) IS a collective.

Why don't you just pick the HYP share you think will do best over a decade?

I am not Mystic Meg!


Ian

[tjh290633]

tjh290633
FCIT?
Compass, Diageo, IMI, and Unilever, William Hill - Please pick one, or something else

FCIT for the collective.
Compass for the single share.

TJH

[Steveam]

AZN for the individual share. This is a gamble - one or two big breakthrough drugs and they’re in the money. I’ve held for a while and already showing a good profit but looking for it to treble or better.

VWRL - any large world tracker.

Best wishes,

Steve

[TUK020]

Contrarian thought process:
For a 10 year horizon, this has got to be about risk management above all else - looking for odds that they will not crater, rather than become a multibagger.

So what is the biggest moat? Got to be some indispensable monopoly, that is at low risk of being disrupted rapidly by some new technology, which means it is likely to be a regulated business.

Single share: NG
Collective: FCIT? or VWRL? L&G Global 100 ETF? dithering

[Bubblesofearth]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP) IS a collective

Ian

It's not one investment though and that's what the OP asked for.

No one in their right financial mind would go for a single share if that's all they were allowed to put their money into so any one investment would have to be a collective. In which case a low cost all World tracker would seem a sensible choice.

If the question had been which share do you think will perform best over the next decade then I'd go for a medium oil E&P. A bombed out Tullow appeals.

BoE

[hiriskpaul]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

My apologies, my original response was rather brusque

The problem is that you are asking for a collective. In the case of HYP this would be a selection for a portfolio containing between 15 and 20 shares. To do such would take a couple of days to set out but, more importantly, it would need monitoring over the decade of your challenge! Given a couple of days, I could certainly come up with the constituents of an HYP as I would want it to stand right now, but I am not in a position to commit to the necessary monitoring over the next 10 years, are you?

If you want a selection that some would say was "close enough" then I can suggest the HYP entitled "PYAD HYP 2019_04 REINVEST" which is currently chronicled here: viewtopic.php?p=263538#p263538

It is not exactly as an HYPer would start out now, but it was only set up a few months ago. It will also be closely monitored by myself, dividends and all, so hopefully, in a decade, you will have the information that you need for your challenge.


Ian

I don't want to create and manage a HYP portfolio as part of this, but comparison with your already running HYP 2019_04 would certainly be interesting.

[bungeejumper]

Not normally a game I play, but in 2009 I was asked to suggest a ten year investment for a magazine and went for BHP (+ Billiton, as it was then known.) Having watched it for a while, I eventually decided to put a fair chunk of my money where my mouth was. My principal reasoning was that BHP sells a lot of iron ore to the Chinese, but, more importantly, a great deal of the high-quality coal that they use for specialist steelmaking. Of which China hasn't got a lot. I don't think that balance is likely to change in the coming decade.

I knew all along, of course, that mining isn't favoured by the ethical contingent, and that BHP has probably done less than it ought to clean up its image, but on this occasion I decided to go with the numbers rather than the moral imperatives.

Overall I'm significantly more than 100% up, which is respectable if not stratospheric. The intervening decade has produced only a 25% headline capital gain but a reasonably consistent 6% divi, plus two tidy bonuses - one in 2014 when South was spun off and I received shares (value to me, around 17% of my investment IIRC), and the second in January 2019 when a buyback resulted in another sizeable payout.

Downsides are the volatility, and the growing disapproval of miners among pension funds. Upsides are that China hasn't finished growing yet.

BJ

[Scudsurfer]

I fancy something like IWFM as it is a world wide momentum tracker from Ishares that rebalance every 6 months, so they can do the hard work. It tracks the MSCI World Momentum Index which has annualized figures of :-

3 years - 18.04%
5 years - 11.92 %
10 years - 13.55 %

Since 1994 - 11.01%

[hiriskpaul]

I am off to the Caribbean tomorrow, so want to finalise the portfolio today. For the still dithering, please make your minds up!

For my single share I have decided to go for the Manchester BS 8% PIBS (MBSR). Bombed out, not paying, but I am hoping for a recovery before 2030, which would see a 5 fold increase in price. The second best option is an orderly wind-up of the society and repayment at par. Worst outcome is total wipeout. Very little liquidity at present as I hoovered most of it up before Christmas, but I shall ignore that for this portfolio.

For simplicity of monitoring, I shall set the start date at 31/12/2019, maturity date 31/12/2029.

[yorkshirelad1]

Following on from the recent thread viewtopic.php?f=8&t=21045, if you had to pick one investment for the next decade what would it be?

The criteria is simply that it must be something you would be prepared to buy and not touch for a decade, other than reinvesting dividends. It should be a listed ISA allowable investment, but could be a single stock/bond, or a collective. Assume it is held in an ISA, so no concerns over income tax or final CGT. It could be crammed full of risk, such as a small AIM stock, or something like a Vanguard LifeStrategy fund - your choice.

To start the ball rolling, I will go for the iShares Emerging Markets ETF EMIM. Global emerging markets have significantly underperformed developed markets over the last decade, but that has left valuations much lower and EM economies are likely to grow faster than developed economies, so I think the next decade will be better for global EM.

Collective: SMT
Individual: Unilever
(have held both for 10+ years)

Perhaps we should look back and see what we said 10 years ago
And/or see if anyone picked the top of the list (over 10 years!)

[Bouleversee]

I wonder how many of us will be around, of if so still have our marbles, by the end of the next decade to see whose pick did best. How about a stock and collective pick for the coming year? Or several, since I can't be the only one sitting on a lot of uninvested dividends while waiting for Brexit to unravel. This year we have equally or possibly more serious issues to contend with and it is difficult to decide which holdings are most likely to be adversely affected by them. I think I might top up my Polymetal shares for starters and hold off selling those Anglogold Ashanti shares for the time being, gold usually being a relatively safe haven in times of turmoil. Ditto my oil shares and BAe. SMT has done best as regards my few ITs so will add a bit to that as well but I need to decide on another global IT so will watch out for suggestions on here. Otherwise handsitting likely to continue till the dust settles. I hope I won't see all last year's huge gains disappear and intend to spend some of the dividends, knowing they will continue to flow in each month.

[dealtn]

High Yield Portfolio (HYP)

OK, and within it, what would your stand-out pick be for the next decade?

My apologies, my original response was rather brusque

The problem is that you are asking for a collective. In the case of HYP this would be a selection for a portfolio containing between 15 and 20 shares. To do such would take a couple of days to set out but, more importantly, it would need monitoring over the decade of your challenge! ...

Why would it need monitoring at all? The OP was to buy and hold a single investment and reinvest any dividends over the decade. Simple. No monitoring required, just look again at the end of 2029.

It seems you are wanting to "play" another game.

[Dod101]

I wonder how many of us will be around, of if so still have our marbles, by the end of the next decade to see whose pick did best. How about a stock and collective pick for the coming year? Or several, since I can't be the only one sitting on a lot of uninvested dividends while waiting for Brexit to unravel. This year we have equally or possibly more serious issues to contend with and it is difficult to decide which holdings are most likely to be adversely affected by them. I think I might top up my Polymetal shares for starters and hold off selling those Anglogold Ashanti shares for the time being, gold usually being a relatively safe haven in times of turmoil. Ditto my oil shares and BAe. SMT has done best as regards my few ITs so will add a bit to that as well but I need to decide on another global IT so will watch out for suggestions on here. Otherwise handsitting likely to continue till the dust settles. I hope I won't see all last year's huge gains disappear and intend to spend some of the dividends, knowing they will continue to flow in each month.

The UK market is still cheap by international standards and to that extent it ought to hold up well enough. It might also be bolstered by a takeover or two, but who knows? I certainly do not, but if I were sitting on uninvested dividends which I did not need, I would be investing now. None of us has any idea how Brexit will effect things, nor indeed, Trump's actions against Iran (or for that matter vice versa)

I would also take a look at Alliance Trust. It is shaping up quite well. I have bought back into it again in the last couple of years and last year it had a very respectable 22% increase. Scottish Mortgage managed 24%. In fact despite all the machinations over the last few years, it has not done badly, but appears to have no following around here.

Incidentally, it may well be that I will not be around in another decade but that will not stop me trying!

Dod

[kempiejon]

I'm going to join Mark with Mastercard for my single pick please.

[BT63]

I'd say tobacco, the FTSE, and gold (although gold seems overbought at the moment).

Tobacco is unloved and many people are worried about regulation and alternative products.

FTSE looks relatively cheap compared to other major indices and has probably been held back by Brexit uncertainty (markets hate unknowns; now there are less unknowns than a month ago).

Gold because of the world's financial problems (we still have 'emergency' interest rates a decade after the crash) and the questionable monetary experiments to remedy them.

[BT63]

I can't edit to add to my previous post but put me down for a whole portfolio looking something like this:

50% FTSE All-Share Index Tracker
20% FTSE 250 Index Tracker
5% Imperial Tobacco (Imperial Brands)
5% British American Tobacco
20% Gold.

[kempiejon]

Some interesting suggestions so far. Keep them coming please and try to pick just one investment (I know it is not easy to choose). No problem if you want to pick something already mentioned.

Edit: I think I should widen to 2 picks per person. 1 for a single share (and yes Berkshire Hathaway would be allowed) and 1 collective. I will form and track a virtual portfolio from the suggestions.