Investing this Week

[Dod101]

The week has closed leaving me with my highest value ever I think for my portfolio. Well done Boris and thanks! Even the tobaccos have done well.

Dod

[Aminatidi]

Makes it interesting working out what to do with new money

[swill453]

The week has closed leaving me with my highest value ever I think for my portfolio. Well done Boris and thanks! Even the tobaccos have done well.

Just imagine how high it would be if we hadn't vo... Oops wrong board

Scott

[Itsallaguess]

Makes it interesting working out what to do with new money..

In addition to that, for me it makes it interesting at this time of year too, as I look at how best I'm going to carry out what for me are a couple of parallel 12-monthly tasks in about 10 weeks time -

1. Start to form a view as to how best to utilise next year's ISA allowance, where possible.

2. Part of the above task is usually carried out using a combination of new capital (I'm still working..) and a partial movement of existing invested-capital away from my non-sheltered portfolio into one of my ISA share accounts.

3. Look to see if there's been any 'abnormal' movements in already-held share-prices. By 'abnormal' I usually mean well over-and-above any 'general' market movements that may have affected a much wider numbers of holdings.

4. If there have been any 'abnormal' movements over the previous year, and where those holdings are part of my income-portfolio, check to see if any major diversification issues (income or capital) are currently afflicting the portfolio because of those 'abnormal' movements.

5. If there are any diversification issues, and if they've been created by 'abnormal' share prices rises to a point where the current and forecast yield for such holdings may have dropped into the sort of yield-territory which can generally be equalled (or sometimes even improved..) by some of my other 'collective' income-holdings, then I often look to see if any of those existing holdings are in my non-ISA account, and see if incorporating those holdings into my 'next-year ISA plan' might actually kill two birds with one stone, which is namely to allow me to move some non-ISA capital into my ISA accounts, at the same time as carrying out a diversification/re-balancing process, and quite often with the added bonus (three birds!) of achieving an up-lift in yield in the capital being moved...

I think it's very important, to me at least, to have personal-investment plans and processes that we're comfortable carrying out during different market-cycles, whether that's at relative market-highs such as we're seeing recently, or even short/medium/long-term lows, and making sure that those plans are aligned with our own personal sensibilities as investors.

It's no good agreeing that plans for such circumstances look good 'on paper' if we're 'constitutionally incapable' as individual investors of actually carrying out those plans when those particular market conditions do actually rear their heads...

I used to find it really, really difficult to both buy things during market routs, and also to buy things during market highs, and whilst I still do carry out some cash-buffer management in line with potential market nervousness, I am much, much better now at both knowing my plans and acting on them when such situations arise. This helps massively with holding a portfolio that is still in a relatively fast growing-phase whilst I'm still in paid employment.

I think the hard part is generating and putting plans in place that suit us personally, rather than trying to implement plans that don't. It took me many years to realise this...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[Howard]

Same here. But In dollar or euro terms the pound has devalued about 15% or thereabouts over the last five years.

Sadly my investments outside the UK have enhanced my portfolio's performance more than most of my UK investments. For my grandchildren's benefit I'm hoping that it will be more attractive to invest in UK firms in the future, but I'm not sure.

regards

Howard

[Dod101]

My grandchildren are mostly invested in Scottish Mortgage and Monks. Some money from me has helped. They do not need the money and need to look long term so these seem to ideal vehicles for that.

I think most of us directly, or in my case, mostly indirectly, are invested outside of the UK and have been helped by the weakening pound in terms of nominal value. Whilst it feels good to have a lot of value apparently accruing we all know that it is purchasing power that matters.

I suspect that the UK market has some way to go yet because yields are still relatively high. It is no where near euphoric yet; that would be the time to consider taking some profits. Of course it may all collapse later in the year once serious trade talks get underway.

Dod

[monabri]

The week has closed leaving me with my highest value ever I think for my portfolio. Well done Boris and thanks! Even the tobaccos have done well.

Dod

Ditto. My data for "Total Return" (TR) indicates an all time high.

HYP = 5.2%
Income ITs = 16.3%
Growth ITs = 15.8%

A fourth, smaller "portfolio" of Bonds/Private equity shows a TR of 14.6%.

Poor/Inexperienced decisions regarding HYP selection (#1) lead me to look at collectives as an income source.The income ITs were acquired slowly over the last 3 years, probably benefiting from timing rather than "time in".

It's illuminating that the TR on the collectives are similar...and three times the value of the HYP total return.


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(#1)
Carillion - lesson learned about the sector - low/no margins- no room for the odd slip up - no robustness.

Interserve - In hindsight, similar problem to Carillion regarding margins - one or two HYPers say it was an ok selection in its day but, the same comment on "robustness" applies.

Provident - A high flyer ..until it wasn't. My own fault due to inexperience - would I select it now as a HYP share if "I had my time again and no hindsight bias (if that's remotely possible)" - a definite "no" based simply on the numbers here http://financials.morningstar.com/ratio ... t=xlon:PFG
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[SheikYaManii]

The week has closed leaving me with my highest value ever I think for my portfolio. Well done Boris and thanks! Even the tobaccos have done well.

Dod

My portfolio has reached the same valuation (as far as I can remember ) as 3 years ago but then I have been living off it. Suits me, Happy days (for now).
regards
Dave.

[fca2019]

@DOD well done Boris?

Agree but, the market high is mainly due to the Phase 1 trade deal, Trump solving the problem, which Trump himself created!!!

[jonesa1]

He created it because the Chinese needed taking on.

I'd agree, but he's dressing up what amounts to nothing very much, as a great victory to help with his re-election (I don't really think he needs to bother, the Democratic candidates seem more than capable of ensuring him a second term)

[Dod101]

The week has closed leaving me with my highest value ever I think for my portfolio. Well done Boris and thanks! Even the tobaccos have done well.

Dod

My portfolio has reached the same valuation (as far as I can remember ) as 3 years ago but then I have been living off it. Suits me, Happy days (for now)

I too live off my investments and have added no capital in the last three years but my capital is up by almost 12% in that time. That is a crude measure of success but three years ago was a fairly high point in the market.

My reason for thanking Boris is obviously the general uplift in the domestic market at the end of last year, the Boris Bolunce, and this year it may have allowed us to participate in the 'outer world' progress. Up until now and still I think today the UK market has not done nearly as well as it might have if it had not been for the huge uncertainties of Brexit.

Dod

[tjh290633]

I am another of those whose portfolio value has reached an all time high this weekend.

It is not quite an all-time high for my income units at £6.39, as they had been at £6.52 in May 2017. However the accumulation units are at an all time high of £29.26 this weekend.

The record of accumulation units, and the IRR since the year ends indicated, is:

Since        Acc Unit   IRR   
31-Dec-98        5.89    7.90%
30-Dec-99        6.85    7.50%
31-Dec-00        6.68    8.05%
31-Dec-01        6.43    8.76%
31-Dec-02        5.23   10.62%
31-Dec-03        6.38    9.94%
31-Dec-04        7.59    9.37%
30-Dec-05        9.69    8.18%
31-Dec-06       12.25    6.89%
31-Dec-07       12.41    7.37%
31-Dec-08        7.41   13.22%
31-Dec-09       10.24   11.01%
31-Dec-10       12.32   10.03%
31-Dec-11       13.45   10.13%
31-Dec-12       15.80    9.13%
31-Dec-13       19.56    6.88%
31-Dec-14       20.34    7.46%
31-Dec-15       21.42    8.00%
31-Dec-16       24.37    6.17%
29-Dec-17       26.70    4.55%
31-Dec-18       24.06   20.48%
31-Dec-19       28.84   34.14%
18-Jan-20       29.26

The figure since 31 Dec 2019 is only for 18 days and should be disregarded.

TJH

[jackdaww]

my high point was 2 years ago when the FTSE100 was over 7700.

not quite back there yet - almost entirely due to MISTAKES made SELLING rather than bad buying .

1. generally selling good stocks for no good reason -

eg greggs , astra, electrocomponents , bhp ,breedon , games workshop, bats , compass

2. not selling poor stock picks soon enough - holding on - averaging down - price anchoring - ignoring profit warnings -

eg NRR , provident , morrisons , nbrown, laird , kcom , essentra, connect , rmg petrofac.

[Dod101]

my high point was 2 years ago when the FTSE100 was over 7700.

not quite back there yet - almost entirely due to MISTAKES made SELLING rather than bad buying .

1. generally selling good stocks for no good reason -

eg greggs , astra, electrocomponents , bhp ,breedon , games workshop, bats , compass

2. not selling poor stock picks soon enough - holding on - averaging down - price anchoring - ignoring profit warnings -

eg NRR , provident , morrisons , nbrown, laird , kcom , essentra, connect , rmg petrofac.

That is interesting JD. My strategy is to try to avoid problems not necessarily seek winners. Occasionally that takes a bit of care, like not selling the tobaccos when the world thought they were wiped out. I thought about that with a lot of frustration. I have never held any of your 'poor picks' though.

Basically I try to follow Buffett. 'Do not lose money.' Mind you I top sliced AstraZeneca when it hit £70. It was not a particularly big holding and that looks a bit silly now.

All of our portfolios will be an amalgam of our own thoughts over the last two or three years. If we do more right than wrong I guess we will end up on the right side. That is all that any of us can hope for.

Dod

[Darka]

The problem I have with this week is that although I am also at a record high, I'm about to transfer in 50% of my private pension into my SIPP and will have a fairly large amount of money to invest very soon... with the market at a high...

I'm leaving the other 50% in the private pension as it's done well and as part of my diversification.

[Pastcaring]

That is weird.What part would BJ play in it.

US record high

Australia record high

UK ?

I piled on about £ 70 to 80 K this week.Can I thank BJ for that.If I lose that next week , or more ,can I thank BJ for that.

Start reporting season here next .month.Do I blame BJ if it is bad, or thank him if it is good.

When the share that makes up 40% of my portfolio pays what I expect it to do,what do I do.Chastise myself because Jimsusan bought shares in Lloyd's.Tell myself I must be a fool because I didn't do what everybody else did.

Tell myself that the last 30 years of holding that didn't really happen,it was all just a dream called confirmation bias.

Don' t get euphoric when it goes up,it is normal.
Don' t fill yourself with anxiety when it goes down,it is normal.

I am no expert on the FTSE but has it gone from 7000 to 7600 in 20 years.Who do we blame or thank for that.

The roller coaster ride lasts for decades.What occurred this week or last year doesn' tell you anything about 5 or 10 years time.

Turn the silly noise off.

[Dod101]

Hi pastcaring

Yu are not I gather resident in the UK, but the reason I was thanking Boris was because he finally got Brexit done and that I think it is generally accepted is what caused the Boris Bounce before Christmas. If you do not understand that these comments were not meant to be taken entirely literally It is your loss. A follow up from that Boris Bounce is what I think has produced a little more confidence in the UK market in recent days.

As for the 10% or so rise in the FTSE100 in 20 years, well the austerity measures since the financial crisis of 2008/9 I would guess have had a lot to do with that. Euphoria is a long way off I think. I know very well that the top this last week is a mere blip in the scheme of things and I suspect that most on this Board are well aware of that as well. Sorry to be personal but what exactly is your point?

Dod

[SalvorHardin]

That is weird.What part would BJ play in it.

Boris winning the general election, smashing Labour in the process. Election results move markets. IMHO the consequences of this result have not yet been fully absorbed by the markets.

Labour were proposing the mass confiscation of 10% of the shares of most London listed companies, nationalisations without adequate compensation and other measures which were hostile towards private property. Now their leadership election threatens to rip the party apart

Then there's Brexit uncertainty. We've had three years of it combined with parliamentary navel gazing on an epic scale. Much of that has vanished thanks to Boris' win. Markets hate uncertainty - reduce that and they rise.

FTSE100 up by less than 10% in 20 years? The 2008 financial crisis had a lot to do with that, plus the FTSE being massively overweight in badly run banks, plus price taking miners and oil majors. Also paying a bigger yield than many other markets (which doesn't appear in the index).

As to my investment week, record highs every day in both sterling and Canadian dollars. Delighted that £1,600 in insurance bets on Labour to win the election were losers; made over a hundred times that since.

[PinkDalek]

Turn the silly noise off.

Good suggestion, thanks, I've done what you suggest.

[Bouleversee]

Don't be such a wetblanket, pastcaring. We all know that what goes up can come down (and often does), but we don't all depend solely on the FTSE 100 and we are entitled to a little cheer if our p/f values are considerably higher than they were a few months ago (TR on my main ISA dramatically so) that increase coming mostly since the election results, which cannot be denied, especially in utilities now that renationalisation is out of the way and smaller UK companies because a decision has finally been reached and the public are starting to spend again. That at least is being referred to in the press as the Boris bounce.

I agree that that's not the end of the story and after Javed's comments this weekend, we might see a drop in the s.ps. of those smaller companies if they haven't made adequate preparations. Sufficient unto the day, however. Can't we just enjoy the temporary relief before applying our brains to trying to anticipate what lies ahead and how to hedge our bets, even whilst knowing we might be cursing Boris in another year's time?