The Lemon Fool

I'm in the fortunate position of having a pot of cash to invest but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. I've never experienced a crash before so I'm trying not to jump in too early. I'm guessing the sensible strategy would be to split my purchases over say 6 months rather than investing in one hit? I know I'm asking the impossible, but are there any indicators that can help with finding the bottom of the market?

I'm 41 years old with another 15 years before retirement (if the market recovers!). Would it be sensible to move from my 70% equity portfolio to 100% whilst the market is suffering?

Durations of USA bear markets for the last 100 years:
https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/10/ ... ar-market/
Shortest was 3 months, most well over a year.
Duration of Australian bear markets since 1929 (not updated recently):
https://www.firstlinks.com.au/australia ... ear-market
Not too different, unsurprisingly.

moneybagz wrote:I'm in the fortunate position of having a pot of cash to invest but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. I've never experienced a crash before so I'm trying not to jump in too early. I'm guessing the sensible strategy would be to split my purchases over say 6 months rather than investing in one hit? I know I'm asking the impossible, but are there any indicators that can help with finding the bottom of the market?

I'm 41 years old with another 15 years before retirement (if the market recovers!). Would it be sensible to move from my 70% equity portfolio to 100% whilst the market is suffering?

I would be more inclined to spread my purchases over the next 2 years. Some companies may not survive, so I would be pretty cautious initially.

When and if If a recovery seems firmly established you can always accelerate if you wish to.

As for the 'bottom of the market' - who knows. I certainly have no idea whatsoever.

thanks for the articles/advice, really helpful. I'm considering switching my government bonds (15% of my portfolio) to gold/silver to try and generate some return over the next couple of years - good strategy?

Well if you take the view that @ 3500 has been the key support line over a 'few years' you might at least have some visual TA perspective. I believe there are still a number of overvalued companies on fundamental analysis, especially the better quality ones which is what we should be watching. Do your homework and be patient. For instance, Warren Buffett has built up a large cash fund ready for his shortlist of quality companies and Unilever is probably somewhere near the top. You will recall he tried a cheeky offer in 2017 which was withdrawn amidst cries of indignation etc. Things might be a little different this time round

moneybagz wrote:I'm in the fortunate position of having a pot of cash to invest but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. I've never experienced a crash before so I'm trying not to jump in too early. I'm guessing the sensible strategy would be to split my purchases over say 6 months rather than investing in one hit? I know I'm asking the impossible, but are there any indicators that can help with finding the bottom of the market?

I'm 41 years old with another 15 years before retirement (if the market recovers!). Would it be sensible to move from my 70% equity portfolio to 100% whilst the market is suffering?

Well, with 15 years to retirement (55) and perhaps 30 years on top (who knows?) what are the odds we will have another crash ..or more?

moneybagz wrote:I'm in the fortunate position of having a pot of cash to invest but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. I've never experienced a crash before so I'm trying not to jump in too early. I'm guessing the sensible strategy would be to split my purchases over say 6 months rather than investing in one hit? I know I'm asking the impossible, but are there any indicators that can help with finding the bottom of the market?

I'm 41 years old with another 15 years before retirement (if the market recovers!). Would it be sensible to move from my 70% equity portfolio to 100% whilst the market is suffering?

15 years to retirement? Yes absolutely and don't mess with gold, but be prepared to move back toward holding some bonds again in a few years time.

colin wrote:

moneybagz wrote:I'm in the fortunate position of having a pot of cash to invest but I'm struggling to pull the trigger. I've never experienced a crash before so I'm trying not to jump in too early. I'm guessing the sensible strategy would be to split my purchases over say 6 months rather than investing in one hit? I know I'm asking the impossible, but are there any indicators that can help with finding the bottom of the market?

I'm 41 years old with another 15 years before retirement (if the market recovers!). Would it be sensible to move from my 70% equity portfolio to 100% whilst the market is suffering?

15 years to retirement? Yes absolutely and don't mess with gold, but be prepared to move back toward holding some bonds again in a few years time.

I was just listening to a guy on Bloomberg, recorded a couple of days ago. He was saying that gold and silver are the places to be. He went on to say that currently, as at the peak in 2008, people are selling gold to cover other situations/comitments, but then after the event gold takes off.

I was wondering about topping up Unilever, or one of the supermarkets (which also sell their products). It would have be a supermarket that does home deliveries on a larger scale. Tesco's yield doesn't look that high at 2.61%.

I'd say it's probably a good time to start buying. One Buffettism I took away from the letters to shareholders was buy stuff you'd be willing to hold if the market shut down for ten years.

Personally I'm planning small monthly buys of Shell-A over the next eighteen months.

I'm using a SIPP as the vehicle for it, buying as cheaply as I can and reinvesting the dividends and turfing back in the tax relief.

Time will tell if it works

K

Kipling wrote:I'd say it's probably a good time to start buying. One Buffettism I took away from the letters to shareholders was buy stuff you'd be willing to hold if the market shut down for ten years.

Personally I'm planning small monthly buys of Shell-A over the next eighteen months.

I'm using a SIPP as the vehicle for it, buying as cheaply as I can and reinvesting the dividends and turfing back in the tax relief.

Time will tell if it works

K

The dividend on RDSA shares is paid in euros and is subject to Dutch witholding tax. (currently 15% ?)

The dividend on RDSB shares is paid in sterling under UK regulations into your SIPP, currently no witholding tax.

Both shares have identical dividends declared in US Dollars and then converted into their respective currencies nearer the pay day.

Are you sure you want the A shares, not the B ?

I would make a decision on how much cash or cash equivalents you need. If this is 10%, then the remainder can be invested for the long term e.g. 10+ years.

The equity portion's running costs should be as low as possible. As has been said, this portion should only contain companies you are prepared to hold forever or at least until retirement.

I have never regretted buying (global investment trust) during a panic, even if the market goes down a further 10%. Dividend re-investment is a good idea at any time.

Why buy RDSA? If you are a UK tax payer, resident - go for RDSB.

monabri wrote:Why buy RDSA? If you are a UK tax payer, resident - go for RDSB.

Even if you are not a UK taxpayer, RDSB makes more sense because the UK does not apply tax withholding for overseas investors and the Dutch do. That said some classes of investor can apply for a refund of the Dutch tax.

It is a similar situation with BHP where the UK shares have no tax withholding/credit for foreign holders but the Australian listed shares do.

To the question I have made only one small trade since January, but will be doing a fair amount of trading and buying over the end of the tax year and expect to increase exposure to equities using about one third of my cash. The rest will be retained in case we see lower prices later in the year.

richfool wrote:
I was wondering about topping up Unilever, or one of the supermarkets (which also sell their products). It would have be a supermarket that does home deliveries on a larger scale. Tesco's yield doesn't look that high at 2.61%.

I like Unilever and it’s 10% of my folio. 6% free cash flow yield and 3.9% dividend when I checked a few days back.

Best wishes

Mark.

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:

richfool wrote:
I was wondering about topping up Unilever, or one of the supermarkets (which also sell their products). It would have be a supermarket that does home deliveries on a larger scale. Tesco's yield doesn't look that high at 2.61%.

I like Unilever and it’s 10% of my folio. 6% free cash flow yield and 3.9% dividend when I checked a few days back.

Best wishes

Mark.

I too like ULVR. One of only 3 top-ups I have made recently. The share prices are moving wildly and the yield is now 3.47%.