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What next for this market?

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
colin
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Re: What next for this market?

#304036

Postby colin » April 29th, 2020, 9:16 am

Dod101 wrote:Frankly I think the only thing to do in these markets is nothing. Neither buy nor sell unless you are a dedicated trader when it is always possible to make money with such volatility but that is not for me so I invariably just sit tight. A prolonged recession looks likely to me irrespective of how quickly some industries and sectors will recover. The government cannot fund people laid off for ever and pub companies, in fact the hospitality sector in general is in big trouble as are airlines and travel in general. They will all have to make employees redundant and there goes quite a bit of the economy. I can see something like 1989 or thereabouts until 1994 or so. That may seem unduly pessimistic but is perfectly possible, On the other hand, everything might be up and running again in a year or 18 months.

This is, to use the hugely over used word, unprecedented, and that word means 'of which there has been no previous instance', meaning that we have no experience of what comes next so your guess is as good as mine.

Dod

The only event that might possibly on the horrizon that I can see is that if the Swedish government health adviser turns out to be correct then as lockdowns are eased infection and death numbers will start to increase again and if that happens I think governments are more likely to resume their previous lockdown strategy than they are to change strategy at least untill Sweden seems to be going in a possitive direction and I doubt markets will like the re-introduction of lockdowns, but I would not be about to place a bet on who will turn ot to be correct, it's either the Swedes or the rest of the world.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304038

Postby dealtn » April 29th, 2020, 9:25 am

No idea what happens next. "next" to me seems to be a very short timeframe, and that's no better than a coin toss to me in predicting direction.

However I take comfort again by the general negativity of responders here, most displaying bearish sentiment. Given markets are psychological, perhaps more so than fundamental in the short term, layered onto a random walk in terms of direction, the bearish sentiment makes me inclined to be bullish.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304056

Postby Bubblesofearth » April 29th, 2020, 10:03 am

zico wrote:
Negatives

- Reopening economies will almost certainly cause infections to rise, leading to further deaths and possible spikes (which may be uncontrolled).
- US looks to be jumping the gun in re-opening before transmission has been reduced, leading in a few months to probable huge disruption to US (and world) economy.
- "Herd immunity" may not be possible because it seems virus can re-infect people.
- People may be very reluctant to return to work or to spend until they are sure that pandemic is over.
- Tourism likely to be affected in a big way, particularly countries you have to fly to (including UK, as an island).
- Virus can mutate, and has already done so.



When the FTSE100 dipped below 5000 I felt we were at a time of maximum uncertainty and that there was a good chance we were close to the lows. I posted this at the time. The market has since rallied over 1000 points but I can't see any more certainty now than a month ago regarding the progression of the virus. The assumptions back then about length of lockdown, how restrictions would be eased, when a vaccine might be available etc look pretty similar now. The fact that the market seems to be taking a more sanguine view of the situation is hard to understand.

When it comes to your negatives I think you might have missed a big one and that has to do with the future of trade and Globalisation. There have been calls for a forensic investigation of where this virus originated and the processes followed once it was recognised. And calls for changes to behaviour based on these findings to reduce the risk of anything similar arising in future. Sadly China has a poor record here. Following the SARS outbreak changes (e.g. to wet markets, transparency of government) were made that simply didn't stick. Furthermore there are several examples of dubious behaviour. Why, for example, were flights banned from Wuhan to the rest of China whilst still allowed to the rest of the World? Or how about the Chinese response to Australias demands;

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... hment.html

After the 1918 Spanish 'flu pandemic there was a reduction in trust. That's going to happen again here. There will IMO be huge consequences for Global trade, especially between China and ROW, something that was already pretty tense between China and the US. I think countries are going to want to become more self-sufficient and this has implications for Globalisation, economic efficiency and prosperity (in a kind of Adam Smith way). We already have climate change encouraging this trend.

The only asset I'm considering increasing my exposure to at the moment is gold. But I will probably do nothing!

BoE

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Re: What next for this market?

#304061

Postby BT63 » April 29th, 2020, 10:30 am

FTSE 100 is through 6000 this morning so I've just been amending my monthly debits which pay into several index funds.
They will now be buying only about half as much per month.

At the new rate of buying most of the cost will be covered by income; savings (worth 10-15% of portfolio) will barely need to be touched to sustain the buying.

I don't have much confidence in this bull market for the reasons mentioned last night. I'm not selling but I'm not a keen buyer, either.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304071

Postby tikunetih » April 29th, 2020, 11:10 am

zico wrote:I sold a significant amount of funds on 20th March (when the FTSE was a 5200) and I don't want that money to be out of shares for a long time, because cash slowly loses value over the long term.

...

My main aim is to minimise loss on my money in real terms over the next 10-15 years, and hopefully I'll get real growth from investment in the market.

...

If I was aged 30, I'd be more willing to accept risk and would be seeing this as an excellent time to start regularly investing in the market with the aim of getting long-term growth for 20+ years ahead. But a golden rule of investing in the stock market is to ensure that any money you invest can stay there for at least 5 years before you need it, and preferably a lot longer.


You sold equities after heavy falls, despite indicating that you had an investment horizon of 10-15 years, and noting that "any money you invest can stay there for at least 5 years before you need it, and preferably a lot longer" (which 10-15 years qualifies as).

Hence, you've acted inconsistently even with your own sensible thoughts.

It sounds like you had some investment aspirations, but not much of a strategy to achieve them. If you ever did have an investment plan, it appears it got abandoned in the heat of the moment and you began operating perhaps on gut feelings.

The idea of an investment plan is that you draw it up in calm times after giving it much consideration and then you follow it in all other times; in particular, during periods when markets move dramatically, increasing emotional stress on investors and making rational judgements more difficult, you defer to your investment plan that you've already established.


zico wrote:Would appreciate any updated views, as it's one month on from my OP on this, and I'm more confused than ever about where the market is heading.

I obviously got my initial call wrong, selling quite a chunk of my shares quite near the bottom, and have since been buying Vanguard FTSE UK at regular weekly intervals.


Imagine that instead of running your own money you'd farmed it all out to an investment manager. Then imagine you just received a monthly portfolio update from them, along the lines of the following:

  • "We sold the bulk of your equities around the market lows in late March, when markets were under extreme stress and investor fear and uncertainty was extremely high, locking in capital losses. At that time, our gut instinct was that equities would continue to head lower, but we were wrong and they didn't. Consequently, with equity markets having now recovered by >15% from the levels we sold at we are unsure what to do next.

  • As should be evident, when we sold low a month ago locking in losses we didn't have a robust plan that took account of the possibility of us being wrong. Sorry. Although we still do not possess a robust plan, we hope to do better in future."

On reading that I suspect you (+ other half if relevant) would be pretty livid and you would sack those jokers in an instant...

Which begs the question: why are you running your own money like that?


NB your mistake is not that of getting a directional trading call wrong to sell at what turned out to be a nearer-term low; the error is not having a sensible, robust investment plan that's aligned with your objectives and then executing that plan through thick and thin. We know you did not have a robust plan else you would not be on here asking people for ideas on what tactical call to follow next.

Investing is a serious business that places your life savings on the line, and as such it warrants giving it a great deal of thoughtful consideration, probably more than almost everything else in life bar choice of life partner. Winging it on gut feel doesn't really cut it IMO.

No apologies from me for the tough love, which I think is warranted here. Markets are a fabulous classroom for dishing out lessons to all of us as investors and I think the important thing is to take note of the lessons and try to raise your game. Good luck.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304080

Postby bluedonkey » April 29th, 2020, 11:30 am

As I've said before, this is the anticipated sucker rally / dead cat bounce. I think it will fade and the market will go down again. Economic recovery will take a long time.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304090

Postby BT63 » April 29th, 2020, 11:53 am

bluedonkey wrote:As I've said before, this is the anticipated sucker rally / dead cat bounce. I think it will fade and the market will go down again. Economic recovery will take a long time.


Yes, that's what I'm thinking at the moment.
FTSE and especially SPX is pricing in a quick return to normality which I think is unlikely.
Recovery will not be V-shaped. For some sectors it will be L-shaped for several years.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304099

Postby Dod101 » April 29th, 2020, 12:20 pm

My strategy, apart from doing nothing, is to keep culling Scottish Mortgage as it goes ever higher. It is still my second largest holding. This morning it is £6.55, I last sold some at £6.12 on 14 April. As I need the income I have been topping up Diageo. I have more than enough Unilever and Diageo seems to me to be the next best from the point of view of security of the dividend. I will not sell any more SMT for the moment but am keeping an eye on it, so rather than worry about the very broad issues about which I can do nothing I am simply watching the detail and trying to take what advantage I can of my price movements. Incidentally SMT recently did a full review of their unquoted investments and wrote at least some of them down.

Dod

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Re: What next for this market?

#304103

Postby bluedonkey » April 29th, 2020, 12:30 pm

Following on from tik's post - have a rec - it took me many years to learn that nailing down all the analytical stuff was not sufficient. "Analytical stuff" = macroeconomic view, company reports and accounts, financial ratios, etc etc.

Successfully managing one's emotional response to financial gains and losses is vital. It is emotion that drives us and the markets. Learning how to dealing with the inevitable emotions of fear and greed. Extreme markets bring out fear and greed. In everyday markets those emotions are still there but in milder forms, call it apprehension and acquisitiveness.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304105

Postby johnhemming » April 29th, 2020, 12:39 pm

bluedonkey wrote:As I've said before, this is the anticipated sucker rally / dead cat bounce. I think it will fade and the market will go down again. Economic recovery will take a long time.

The economic test is to what extent governments can put everything back together again to some extent. QE does enable preventing people and conrporations from going bust. Personally I expect things to gradually pick up from here. Some stocks will remain trashed (those massively impacted by the changes from the virus eg Travel/Holiday) some will continue to have damage (hotel, pubs etc). Others will pick up gradually.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304111

Postby tikunetih » April 29th, 2020, 1:04 pm

It's important not to lose sight of the fact that assets and asset classes are all in a "beauty parade" vying for the attention of investors. It's a relative game, so in a parade of ugly ducklings, the objective is still to identify those that are more attractive than the alternatives, even if the absolute levels of attraction aren't great.

During the '80s and much of the '90s, the "Fed Model" for equity market valuation was popular, with the S&P500 earnings yield and the 10 year US Treasury yield moving roughly in sync. They separated significantly very late in the '90s as bond yields rose and equities entered their parabolic phase, causing the earnings yield to plummet even as Treasury yields rose, ending in tears for equity holders...


Since the GFC and the (ultra) low rates that followed, there's been a gulf between the 10 yr yield and the S&P500 earnings yield, and a lesser but still great gulf between 30 yr Treasury bond yields and equity earnings yields. Essentially, investors chose to largely ignore the very low bond yields in their valuation models, avoided bidding up stocks to levels implied by the Fed Model, and prudently choosing to treat those Treasury risk-free rates as a passing temporary phenomena that would revert in time to more normal levels.


What's happened now? Treasury yields have plummeted even further:
- 30 Year Treasuries today yielding <1.2% (vs. nearly 3% one year ago)
- 10 Year Treasuries today yielding <0.6% (vs. >2.5% one year ago)

Consequently these are some of the things that equities are competing with:
- 30 Year Treasuries on a PER of 85
- 10 Year Treasuries on a PER of 169
....return of principal and payment of coupons guaranteed (desirable!), but no growth of capital or coupons, nominal returns only. Clearly, very popular at the moment.


Forecast 2020 earnings for the S&P500 have understandably plummeted, from $177.77 at the start of this year (2020 PE of 18.2) to the low $130s today (2020 PE of >22). Earnings forecasts could continue to fall, causing the fwd PE ratio to increase further. But still, even if earnings fell 50% more than currently forecast, at current equity prices the earnings multiple would still be half that of the 30 Year Treasuries PER.

And obviously equities are perpetual securities, so holders have a claim on *all* future earnings, not just the next 30 years' worth, allowing them if they so choose to look through fallow periods so long as they are confident that one day attractive cash flows will return and potentially grow again in the future, as has happened throughout history.

Bear in mind that if today investors en masse decided to ascribe valuation multiples to equities in accordance with the Fed Model then we'd see the S&P500 not at 2900 where it is today but up around the 22,000 level. :o

Do I think that's likely? No of course not. But, it is possible (not a forecast, just a possibility) that investors do begin to come to believe more than they did previously that the low interest rates that we've experienced for the past decade, and the even lower rates we now have, could/will become a feature for the foreseeable future. Central banks may encourage them to think that way, as they have done in Japan, by if necessary specifically anchoring gov bond yields at low target levels until some future, desirable, but distant economic condition is attained.

In that scenario, valuation multiples could expand (very) significantly, and it's not hard to imagine how they could potentially even one day come to exceed the all-time high multiples seen at the height of the dotcom bubble. Earnings falling, equities rising; earnings levelling, equities rising; earnings eventually recovering, equities rising more - all possible if investors vote that way by ascribing higher valuation multiples because they decide the other ducklings in the beauty contest are even uglier.

Again, not a forecast, more an exercise in imagination to consider the cup being half full, not just dwelling on the half empty view that recency bias may draw investors into overly focusing on. Be open for much better than expected outcomes, as well as much worse than expected, so as not to be shocked if markets were to take a (superficially) surprising path.

NB Not a forecast, if I've not stressed that enough ;)

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Re: What next for this market?

#304123

Postby tikunetih » April 29th, 2020, 1:28 pm

bluedonkey wrote:it took me many years to learn that nailing down all the analytical stuff was not sufficient. "Analytical stuff" = macroeconomic view, company reports and accounts, financial ratios, etc etc.

Successfully managing one's emotional response to financial gains and losses is vital. It is emotion that drives us and the markets. Learning how to dealing with the inevitable emotions of fear and greed. Extreme markets bring out fear and greed. In everyday markets those emotions are still there but in milder forms, call it apprehension and acquisitiveness.


As Morgan Housel wrote, in this superb article:

The Psychology of Money
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ ... -of-money/

"...investing is not the study of finance. It’s the study of how people behave with money."

and crucially how you behave yourself.

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Re: What next for this market?

#304132

Postby zico » April 29th, 2020, 1:44 pm

tikunetih wrote:

Imagine that instead of running your own money you'd farmed it all out to an investment manager. Then imagine you just received a monthly portfolio update from them, along the lines of the following:

  • "We sold the bulk of your equities around the market lows in late March, when markets were under extreme stress and investor fear and uncertainty was extremely high, locking in capital losses. At that time, our gut instinct was that equities would continue to head lower, but we were wrong and they didn't. Consequently, with equity markets having now recovered by >15% from the levels we sold at we are unsure what to do next.

  • As should be evident, when we sold low a month ago locking in losses we didn't have a robust plan that took account of the possibility of us being wrong. Sorry. Although we still do not possess a robust plan, we hope to do better in future."

On reading that I suspect you (+ other half if relevant) would be pretty livid and you would sack those jokers in an instant...

Which begs the question: why are you running your own money like that?




Hi Tikuneth and thanks for a really interesting way of thinking. I particularly like your "Zico investment management services" idea.
Here's my version of the Zico Fund Management update.

"Hi there. Remember us? We're the people who timed the market brilliantly in 2003, buying heavily in FTSE trackers because we didn't believe the Iraq war could possibly affect global profitability even though the markets had tanked, started selling in early 2007, making our big selling move in June 2007 with the following rationale. We'd enjoyed a great run on the FTSE, thought you could use the money more effectively to pay off your mortgage at 5% and also thought selling at a historical FTSE peak can never be that bad an idea.

We bought in 2003 at 3,800 and sold in 2007 at 6,500 and really couldn't have done any better in that 4 years period. Of course, we didn't foresee the financial crisis, that was just dumb luck. If we had, we wouldn't have bought a few Northern Rock shares 2 days before they crashed - sorry about that. And let's not even think about that time we could have cut losses massively on those Lloyds shares, because we were about to sell, but waited for the price to go back up another 5p and missed our big chance. We've learned we are really not very good at buying and selling individual shares, so we pretty much stopped doing that.

OK, so we were great at timing the market, or maybe just lucky. Did we keep on with this strategy and buy heavily after the financial crash? No, we got bored with shares (and also worried more about risk) so went for conservative fixed-term bonds (which were paying decent returns back then) so we missed the bottom and the initial recovery. We should have paid a bit more attention to the market opportunities, but we didn't.

But at least we carried on with regular drip-feeding, and also added to your share-linked pension pots in a fairly big way between 2011-2015 when the FTSE moved from 5,200 up to 7,000 so that was quite good. In 2016, in line with our strategy, we moved the pension pot mix to 70% bonds, 30% shares with the FTSE at 6,500 to lock in those gains. We made a big transfer into your pension pot in July 2019 when the FTSE was at 7,500 and ignored our cautious strategy to put this 100% in shares, because we felt complacent about leaving it in for the long term, and we really didn't think about it much at all, even though it was a fair chunk of cash. Even without hindsight, that was a pretty big mistake to go against our strategy. During the rest of 2019 we thought we should be locking in some gains, but we never got round to it, and thought we had plenty of time to make a decison like that.

In January 2020, we started to get very worried about the coronavirus, could see it was inevitably going to be a worldwide problem (even though the numbers were very small) and thought it would have a big impact on the world economy, but saw the FTSE had gone down 10% on the back of this news, so just assumed some clever finance people had thought that was a reasonable market reaction and didn't bother thinking about it ourselves any more. We didn't even think to check how much of the pension fund money was in bonds, because we thought it was ok. We had the knowledge, but were just lazy and didn't take the time to fully understand how the market was reacting and make the decisions that needed to be made.

So we missed the boat, but made a significant selling move from equities into bonds in late-March to limit the potential downsides to your wealth. We pulled back from making a much more significant move because we weren't confident enough about which way the market was heading.

In conclusion, when we've put some thought about what we're doing, we've done pretty well. When we've stopped paying attention to what was going on, we've messed up big time. We're really sorry, and we're going to pay attention all the time in future, but without veering into day trading . However, because the market is so volatile right now, and there is lots of data and science to follow (and this reality must eventually move the markets), our strategy for the next few months will be to drip feed on a weekly basis (rather than monthly), occasionally make buys/sells when big market changes happen with no underlying news to justify it, but once the markets settle down in 2021, we'll keep a watching brief and only trade when we are pretty confident the market has got it wrong.

For today, we believe that data from Germany has shown that re-opening economies even a little bit simply reawakens the coronavirus, so there's a lot of misplaced optimism in the markets that economies are over the worst. Although markets might climb more for a week or two, we believe there'll be a sharp fall as reality bites, and the pandemic expands in uncontrolled ways, particularly in the USA (which we believe will be a horrendous calamity, both in lives lost and economy damaged). So we've made a significant (but not enormous) sell on FTSE UK today with the FTSE at 6,000.
Last edited by zico on April 29th, 2020, 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

colin
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Re: What next for this market?

#304140

Postby colin » April 29th, 2020, 1:55 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:
After the 1918 Spanish 'flu pandemic there was a reduction in trust. That's going to happen again here. There will IMO be huge consequences for Global trade, especially between China and ROW, something that was already pretty tense between China and the US. I think countries are going to want to become more self-sufficient and this has implications for Globalisation, economic efficiency and prosperity (in a kind of Adam Smith way). We already have climate change encouraging this trend.

The only asset I'm considering increasing my exposure to at the moment is gold. But I will probably do nothing!

BoE

On the other hand
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marke ... 2020-03-19
Don't forget the Roaring 20s

Remember...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X_-q9xeOgG4

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Re: What next for this market?

#304151

Postby Bubblesofearth » April 29th, 2020, 2:36 pm

colin wrote:On the other hand
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marke ... 2020-03-19
Don't forget the Roaring 20s



Fair point although what happened afterwards isn't so encouraging.

Crystal ball gazing is always tricky and there absolutely might be a boom in markets following this. All I'm saying is that risks to Global trade will IMO be heightened and that is a factor that belongs in the the white Pele's negative column. When the dust settles I think there is going to be a lot of residual anger and looking to apportion blame. I'm not saying that's right (although some responsibility taking and investigation should IMO happen) but it's human nature. Especially when peoples health and livelihoods have been threatened, and in many cases destroyed.

BoE

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Re: What next for this market?

#304154

Postby colin » April 29th, 2020, 2:43 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:
colin wrote:On the other hand
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marke ... 2020-03-19
Don't forget the Roaring 20s



Fair point although what happened afterwards isn't so encouraging.

Crystal ball gazing is always tricky and there absolutely might be a boom in markets following this. All I'm saying is that risks to Global trade will IMO be heightened and that is a factor that belongs in the the white Pele's negative column. When the dust settles I think there is going to be a lot of residual anger and looking to apportion blame. I'm not saying that's right (although some responsibility taking and investigation should IMO happen) but it's human nature. Especially when peoples health and livelihoods have been threatened, and in many cases destroyed.

BoE

This pandemic was caused by people eating wild animals which probably occurs in every country. Grouse, deer, pheasant and most of our other diseases have crossed over from domesticated animals, there is no one to blame!

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Re: What next for this market?

#304159

Postby Dod101 » April 29th, 2020, 3:03 pm

I suspect that zico has too much time on his hands. I wonder if overall he has actually done any better than he would have had he simply left everything alone? Trying to time the market will work sometimes and not others. I am afraid that getting it right or wrong is down to luck more than anything else. And jumping around as he does is costing a lot of emotional energy and also brokers' fees.

I live off my investments and do not have a pension other than the State pension but I take a pragmatic, mostly hands off, approach as I have described. it gives me a quieter life all round.

Dod

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Re: What next for this market?

#304169

Postby tikunetih » April 29th, 2020, 3:35 pm

⠀⠀
Good reply, zico! I like the fact you've not shirked from owning your actions. Thumbs up.


zico wrote:In conclusion, when we've put some thought about what we're doing, we've done pretty well. When we've stopped paying attention to what was going on, we've messed up big time. We're really sorry, and we're going to pay attention all the time in future, but without veering into day trading.

...

For today, we believe that data from Germany has shown that re-opening economies even a little bit simply reawakens the coronavirus, so there's a lot of misplaced optimism in the markets that economies are over the worst. Although markets might climb more for a week or two, we believe there'll be a sharp fall as reality bites, and the pandemic expands in uncontrolled ways, particularly in the USA (which we believe will be a horrendous calamity, both in lives lost and economy damaged). So we've made a significant (but not enormous) sell on FTSE UK today with the FTSE at 6,000.[/i]


BUT... ;)

1. The danger that comes from having made decent calls in the past, as you suggest you've done previously, is that I think it's difficult to avoid this leading in the present to some level of overconfidence in your own ability to keep repeating those good calls.

For years (& years) I used to run a very tactical portfolio and a number of large, key allocation decisions I made along the way had an out-sized impact on my returns. Kerrching. But, what if my calls were substantially down to luck and not to skill? How confident should I be that I could continue to make returns-enhancing major calls? The same applies to you.

2. Furthermore, and a point discussed by Mr Housel in that article I linked to above "2. Cost avoidance syndrome", at what cost to you of embarking on that course? "Cost" in this case being in terms of what you give up in order to remain glued to markets in attempt to be in tune with them to the necessary degree in order to succeed with your allocation switches.

You wrote: "we're going to pay attention all the time in future, but without veering into day trading"

With you saying you've just entered retirement, is this really the optimal way to be using your future time? Particularly bearing in mind the infallibility of investors [point 1. above], including both you and me, to keep timing things successfully (as recent experience illustrates)?


Each to their own, but personally I would be seeking a more hands-off approach based upon diversification and appropriate asset allocation, with only occasional tinkering if/when extremes are reached. Good chance it'll provide better returns too, better sleep at night, and all for less effort, lower costs and without relying on remaining lucky/unusually skilful.

zico
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Re: What next for this market?

#304190

Postby zico » April 29th, 2020, 4:27 pm

tikunetih wrote:⠀⠀

You wrote: "we're going to pay attention all the time in future, but without veering into day trading"

With you saying you've just entered retirement, is this really the optimal way to be using your future time? Particularly bearing in mind the infallibility of investors [point 1. above], including both you and me, to keep timing things successfully (as recent experience illustrates)?


Each to their own, but personally I would be seeking a more hands-off approach based upon diversification and appropriate asset allocation, with only occasional tinkering if/when extremes are reached. Good chance it'll provide better returns too, better sleep at night, and all for less effort, lower costs and without relying on remaining lucky/unusually skilful.


Thanks for some more good points, especially the luck/skill issue as people do tend to classify themselves as either skilful or unlucky. By paying closer attention to markets, I mean that I'll be keeping up to date with my portfolios and trying to ensure I have the correct asset allocation to suit my circumstances - but in future I certainly won't be spending my life glued to the markets in an attempt to squeeze out minor gains. What I won't do though is what I've been doing the last couple of years, which is to go months and months without any serious consideration of what's happening to my investments or making high level decisions (including "no change" as a conscious decision). I'm very interested in the coronavirus epidemic in any case, but my main concerns are about minimising my risks of getting coronavirus by finding the best food shop and best times to shop!

Bubblesofearth
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Re: What next for this market?

#304194

Postby Bubblesofearth » April 29th, 2020, 4:32 pm

colin wrote:This pandemic was caused by people eating wild animals which probably occurs in every country. Grouse, deer, pheasant and most of our other diseases have crossed over from domesticated animals, there is no one to blame!


So if you got food poisoning after visiting a restaurant and eating chicken you would shrug and say 'all restaurants serve chicken so it's not that restaurants fault' and continue going to said restaurant?

It's not just about eating wild animals, it's the whole process of how they are prepared, purchased and cooked. Sorry, but we've now had both SARS and Covid originating from the same country and likely from the same culinary practices. And to repeat, it's not really about blame, it's about finding out exactly what happened and why and then putting measures in place to prevent it happening again. Measures that should have been put in place and enforced after SARS.

The next outbreak could be as contagious as Covid-19 but with a 30% fatality rate, i.e. more like Spanish 'flu. Do we wait for that one before doing something about it?

Plus there certainly is a culpability about how transparent and timely the reporting of this was. Both by the Chinese and the WHO.

Did you see the reaction of the Chinese to Australias demands? The whole World should be demanding an independent investigation. IMO it's almost beyond belief that this can be dismissed as 'could have happened anywhere'.

BoE


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