Do people listen to Buffet

[tjh290633]

But meanwhile, we could maybe convince the teaching unions to start teaching the Teaching students correct grammar, so that they can go and teach the friggin kids some correct grammar?

In my view a useful first step would be to reintroduce the School Certificate, in which English Language was a compulsory subject, without which there was no certificate.

A second would be to ensure that all teachers are taught how to teach English Grammar, and to be qualified in that subject.

TJH

[Lootman]

But meanwhile, we could maybe convince the teaching unions to start teaching the Teaching students correct grammar, so that they can go and teach the friggin kids some correct grammar?

In my view a useful first step would be to reintroduce the School Certificate, in which English Language was a compulsory subject, without which there was no certificate.

A second would be to ensure that all teachers are taught how to teach English Grammar, and to be qualified in that subject.

A friend of one of my kids will start a teacher training course in September. She already has a degree but even so there are a number of tests that she has to take and pass before being accepted for teacher training.

My eldest son has been helping her with this so I have heard a few things about it. It includes an English comprehension test and a numeracy test. You'd think anyone capable of getting a degree would already have those skills, but apparently they are retested, or you don't get to teach or even learn how to teach.

Grammar is just one of those things that has been downgraded over the decades. At some point all communication will be via texts and then it really won't matter at all.

[dealtn]

Grammar is just one of those things that has been downgraded over the decades. At some point all communication will be via texts and then it really won't matter at all.

It will to me, and I don't see that changing.

[Arborbridge]

Hi, so I am wondering if semi-professional investors (because this is what we aspire to be) listen to Warren Buffet and factor his advise when making investments.

The source of this question is the following. I hear a lot of people online quoting him and following his investment strategy. While he does say a lot of things which are factual and correct, the investments strategies which he gives are not correct IMHO. There is a lot of people I meet who seem to have followed him and have incurred a bunch of losses with the "stick to your guns" strategy when in fact you should "use your brain" is a better strategy. You shouldn't wait for a company to fall 50% to sell - you should have registered the fundamentals are falling and have sold way before. I just don't know if people realise that most of what he says should come with a massive disclaimer that says "Do this if you are as rich as I am". If you are not a billionaire, a 50% loss is a change of lifestyle for you, not for him. I'm genuinely wondering if people try to imitate him and if they understand how wrong this is?

I don't suggest people trade frequently to capture alpha like a hedgefund, but what I am seeing is people justifying not getting out of a losing position, because of Buffet's advise. This is wrong. Stop. Think. Sell if you have to. Sometimes selling is the correct action. It's OK, you can buy it back tomorrow or after. Derisk if you think you are carrying too much risk.

" While he does say a lot of things which are factual and correct, the investments strategies which he gives are not correct IMHO. "

Wow, think how much more money he could have made if his investments strategies were correct! I think your assessment of this great investor is a little glib, and don't forget he did not start off rich, he became rich.

One thing I have observed is the very phenomenon you mention: people listen to investment gurus who have been very successful and then try to copy them - and mostly fall flat on their faces.

I just don't believe one can emulate someone like Warren Buffett by readings his comments or books about his techniques, because you would not have the secret sauce to pour over the recipe when it's ready to cook. By this, I mean he exercises his own judgement and departs from the written script whenever he feels it necessary. He also has more extensive analysis and understanding than any amateur can bring to the party, and tremendous intuition. As for his comments, don't forget he is always ahead of the game, and you are running behind. The market morphs, WB morphs too whilst staying true to a few principles.

Naturally, there are glaring cases where he has got it wrong (Tesco anybody?), but you don't become as rich as he has without getting it right more often.

Arb.

[DrFfybes]

Grammar is just one of those things that has been downgraded over the decades. At some point all communication will be via texts and then it really won't matter at all.

It will to me, and I don't see that changing.

LoL.

[paulnumbers]

Hi, so I am wondering if semi-professional investors (because this is what we aspire to be) listen to Warren Buffet and factor his advise when making investments.

The source of this question is the following. I hear a lot of people online quoting him and following his investment strategy. While he does say a lot of things which are factual and correct, the investments strategies which he gives are not correct IMHO. There is a lot of people I meet who seem to have followed him and have incurred a bunch of losses with the "stick to your guns" strategy when in fact you should "use your brain" is a better strategy. You shouldn't wait for a company to fall 50% to sell - you should have registered the fundamentals are falling and have sold way before. I just don't know if people realise that most of what he says should come with a massive disclaimer that says "Do this if you are as rich as I am". If you are not a billionaire, a 50% loss is a change of lifestyle for you, not for him. I'm genuinely wondering if people try to imitate him and if they understand how wrong this is?

I don't suggest people trade frequently to capture alpha like a hedgefund, but what I am seeing is people justifying not getting out of a losing position, because of Buffet's advise. This is wrong. Stop. Think. Sell if you have to. Sometimes selling is the correct action. It's OK, you can buy it back tomorrow or after. Derisk if you think you are carrying too much risk.

I think it's probably fair to say that I've read most of what he's publicly written, and I don't really recognize your description of his advice.

For one, he recommends people purchase index funds, and don't try to be active investors.

>There is a lot of people I meet who seem to have followed him and have incurred a bunch of losses with the "stick to your guns" strategy

But as you might be aware, he did not stick to his guns on airlines. He turned on a dime and sold them all at a loss. This is not the first investment he's sold when the facts change, another big one that comes to mind was Tesco.

>You shouldn't wait for a company to fall 50% to sell

I'm 99% sure he's never advocated the strategy you're suggesting.

[Dod101]

As I keep saying, Buffett's Letters to Shareholders are full of timeless investment wisdom, at least they used to be, much less so now. My gripe with him is that he is almost entirely invested in 'old world' businesses. That of course reflects his age and is probably why much younger people, possibly not excluding sss555sss, knock him. His results over the last few years have been less than spectacular and all he does is allow cash to build up to probably silly levels. Were I a shareholder in BH which sadly I am not, then I would certainly be lobbying for a distribution in the form of dividends or a rather more aggressive buy back of their shares.

We are I think now in a bit of an interregnum where the younger generation in BH dare not make a move and yet are probably frustrated at not being able to do so. It is after all a first generation business. I see this where I live with proprietors who have built up businesses and have now handed over (unlike Buffett I assume) to the next generation who feel the cannot make any changes as long as the old man is still around.

Dod

[1nvest]

My gripe with him is that he is almost entirely invested in 'old world' businesses. That of course reflects his age and is probably why much younger people, possibly not excluding sss555sss, knock him. His results over the last few years have been less than spectacular and all he does is allow cash to build up to probably silly levels. Were I a shareholder in BH which sadly I am not, then I would certainly be lobbying for a distribution in the form of dividends or a rather more aggressive buy back of their shares.

Berkshire Hathaway holds something around $75 billion of Apple stock - hardly old-world and a significant chunk of BRK's market cap value (15% or so ??).

Many investors hold BRK stock as it doesn't pay dividends, including me. Paying 15% US dividend withholding tax on a 2% (whatever) dividend isn't desired. For others without a local/US treaty that rises to 30%. I and many others would be content for BRK to just become a low cost tax efficient S&P500 proxy, no fees, no withholding taxes etc. I fear however that pressures will arise from either on the US tax front, or from pressures to return capital/pay dividends once Buffett (who will be 90 at the end of August) is no longer at the helm. Accordingly I just hold a single A share nowadays, and intend to scale that down further (into less exposure via B shares) at some time relatively soon (months).

As a shareholder I am disappointed in the absence of recent buybacks, moreso given the price had dipped to/below book-value. Valuations however even at the recent lows were/are still relatively high, so understandable that his cash reserves weren't deployed more aggressively into other areas (stocks).

BRK has just been a S&P500 proxy since the post 2008 low yield era (in fact worse than the S&P500). Much of his competitive edge 'moat' was a function of having access to large amounts of free-money, the insurance arms float (premiums received in lieu of claims later being paid out), but where that is no longer a moat when others have access to near free-money also (low interest rates). He's also been fortunate to have been a major investor across a great era for stocks, with the broad decline from high double digit interest rates of the 1970's down to recent relatively low yields. If he was young and starting today I suspect the outcome would be massively different - as might it be so for the younger generation stepping into his shoes.

The biggest 'reduce' indicator for me was when he indicated that the trustees for his spouse inheritance should invest in the S&P500, seemingly totally avoiding BRK stock other than what the S&P500 holds. Suggestive that he doesn't expect a bright future for BRK after his demise/step-down.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Hi, so I am wondering if semi-professional investors (because this is what we aspire to be) listen to Warren Buffet and factor his advise when making investments.

The source of this question is the following. I hear a lot of people online quoting him and following his investment strategy. While he does say a lot of things which are factual and correct, the investments strategies which he gives are not correct IMHO. There is a lot of people I meet who seem to have followed him and have incurred a bunch of losses with the "stick to your guns" strategy when in fact you should "use your brain" is a better strategy. You shouldn't wait for a company to fall 50% to sell - you should have registered the fundamentals are falling and have sold way before. I just don't know if people realise that most of what he says should come with a massive disclaimer that says "Do this if you are as rich as I am". If you are not a billionaire, a 50% loss is a change of lifestyle for you, not for him. I'm genuinely wondering if people try to imitate him and if they understand how wrong this is?

I don't suggest people trade frequently to capture alpha like a hedgefund, but what I am seeing is people justifying not getting out of a losing position, because of Buffet's advise. This is wrong. Stop. Think. Sell if you have to. Sometimes selling is the correct action. It's OK, you can buy it back tomorrow or after. Derisk if you think you are carrying too much risk.

I listen to a few of the things I've read from him, and from others describing his philosophy for example The New Buffettology by his one-time daughter-in-law. But I don't look to him for advice now in terms of our post QE and mega low bank rates reality. I actually think he's lost the plot. His firm carries gazillions of free cash - which apparently he hasn't spent for ages - except for a couple of stock buybacks. No even in the covid-19 lows. He could have grabbed Visa, Mastercard, Microsoft etc. etc.

Yeah sure, "we don't know whether we'll see more lows". But that contradicts his "strategy" outlined by D-in-law's book above, i.e. to buy awesome firms for reasonably cheap prices, when they've been hit bad, and hold them LT since you know that that firm is fundamentally high quality.

It seems that a few folk Stateside aren't best pleased with his recent performance either:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2020-05-12

Matt

[BT63]

…... I actually think he's lost the plot. His firm carries gazillions of free cash - which apparently he hasn't spent for ages - except for a couple of stock buybacks. No even in the covid-19 lows. He could have grabbed Visa, Mastercard, Microsoft etc. etc.

I don't think he's lost the plot. I think his cautious stance will be proven right within a couple of years.

[Arborbridge]

…... I actually think he's lost the plot. His firm carries gazillions of free cash - which apparently he hasn't spent for ages - except for a couple of stock buybacks. No even in the covid-19 lows. He could have grabbed Visa, Mastercard, Microsoft etc. etc.

I don't think he's lost the plot. I think his cautious stance will be proven right within a couple of years.

I agree with you. He'll never make a move until he is sure - if he isn''t then he will accumulate cash. And he has always said he won't invest in a business he does not understand.

Most of would find that cash burning a hole in our pockets, and go forth and diworsify.

Arb.