Calm before the storm?

[TUK020]

Vix market volatility subsided to 2019 levels:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/charts

Not overly impressed with our current government's level of competence. Wondering what is going to happen when this winter's second wave of COVID19 and end of Brexit transition arrangements all hit the fan at the same time.

Wondering whether to buy Gold ETF, or concentrate on loo roll and flour

[Dod101]

I am not impressed by the government either but will just carry on as before and let things happen as they will. I have no idea what will happen. Not Strategic Ignorance but just no idea!

Dod

[dealtn]

Wondering whether to buy Gold ETF, or concentrate on loo roll and flour

Are any of those high yield then?

[88V8]

Wondering whether to buy Gold ETF, or concentrate on loo roll and flour

Are any of those high yield then?

Only self-raising flour.

I don't expect another full lockdown. It's not affordable.
But I wouldn't be surprised if there are more deferred divis, so I'll be holding off individual equities. If I buy before year-end, it will be FI, and income ITs. Tempting though to sit on cash in case there are opportunities, 'cos I don't know what will happen either, except that it won't be anything good.

V8

[Itsallaguess]

After doing some buying over the past few months, I'm now in the position of accumulating a new slug of cash, whilst still drip-feeding some of that accrued capital (dividends and saved wages) into my income-portfolio as we go.

Whilst still working, I'm not concerned enough to sell anything and move into things like gold, and I tend to manage how I feel about market-prospects by the amount of accrued-cash I'll allow myself to hold, whilst maintaining a 'fully-invested' stance on my existing holdings.

'Situation normal' for me...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[G3lc]

Hold onto your cash - wait for the market to crash then buy all the companies you have been researching over the past months.

[JohnW]

How big is the 'crash', and what will we be looking for as having 'crashed'?

[G3lc]

How big is the 'crash', and what will we be looking for as having 'crashed'?

For me continue buying again when the markets get back to the March 2020 levels.

As for the “we” I wouldn’t presume.

[swill453]

For me continue buying again when the markets get back to the March 2020 levels.

1st March or 23rd March?

Scott.

[Lootman]

For me continue buying again when the markets get back to the March 2020 levels.

The US market is already back to its highs earlier this year, i.e. its all-time high. And is up year-to-date.

It's just the UK market that has not recovered.

[Adamski]

I agree with your sentiment TUK which is why in the past few months I've been investing mainly in the gold ETF SGLN. If we get a swift economic recovery 'V' shape and a Covid vaccine, then gold will fall, but stocks will go up. So my reasoning is either way you need it as a diversifier.

[Wizard]

For me continue buying again when the markets get back to the March 2020 levels.

The US market is already back to its highs earlier this year, i.e. its all-time high. And is up year-to-date.

It's just the UK market that has not recovered.

I have assumed for a while now that the UK markets were pricing in a serious cock up at the end of the transition period, given recent performance by the Govt. that must surely be a very high probability. There seems no chance of any move to try and delay the end of transition, yet with Covid-19 still taking up a lot of news output and now exam results there seems to have been little coverage of the lack of progress on the end of transition arrangement negotiations. It does look like there is a good chance we will end up with effectively a no deal exit, but having previously agreed to make all the payments to the EU, etc.

The question then becomes how UK shares will respond. My guess is it is not fully priced in yet and whatever their exposure to the UK itself there will be a further general hit to all UK listed companies if we do end up with no transition period agreement. Another good reason not to put all of ones investment eggs into the UK basket.

[Dod101]

The question then becomes how UK shares will respond. My guess is it is not fully priced in yet and whatever their exposure to the UK itself there will be a further general hit to all UK listed companies if we do end up with no transition period agreement. Another good reason not to put all of ones investment eggs into the UK basket.

Obviously none of us knows, but given the disparity between the UK non recovery and pretty well the rest of the world, then I would be prepared to guess that much of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is probably priced in. I think very few are really anticipating a done deal with EU by 31 December. Given the yields on some individual and perfectly good shares the market ought to be much higher than it is especially when we are all looking for income. The yields on say L & G, BAT and the like are simply silly unless we expect a real disaster and yet neither of these shares at least should be affected that much by a no deal Brexit. I do not have time but I am sure there are many similar shares.

Dod

[mc2fool]

The US market is already back to its highs earlier this year, i.e. its all-time high. And is up year-to-date.

It's just the UK market that has not recovered.

Hardly "just". Methinks you have that the wrong way round. It'd be much more (albeit not totally*) accurate to say that it's just the USA market that has recovered.

And even then, only if you look at the NASDAQ and S&P. The DJIA & NYSE composite haven't, and neither have the Dutch, Belgian, France, German, Austrian, Italian, Irish, Spanish, Swedish, Norwegian, Portuguese, Swiss, Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, Kiwi, Indonesian, Malaysian, Japanese, Singaporean, Brazilian, Mexican, or Canadian markets, just to name a few. And, UK not too.

* As well as the NASDAQ and S&P, the markets that have so far recovered are China (Shanghai), Korea, Taiwan, Denmark and Argentina.

Obviously none of us knows, but given the disparity between the UK non recovery and pretty well the rest of the world,

See above.

P.S. Start here: https://finance.yahoo.com/world-indices

[hiriskpaul]

The US market is already back to its highs earlier this year, i.e. its all-time high. And is up year-to-date.

It's just the UK market that has not recovered.

Hardly "just". Methinks you have that the wrong way round. It'd be much more (albeit not totally*) accurate to say that it's just the USA market that has recovered.

And even then, only if you look at the NASDAQ and S&P. The DJIA & NYSE composite haven't, and neither have the Dutch, Belgian, France, German, Austrian, Italian, Irish, Spanish, Swedish, Norwegian, Portuguese, Swiss, Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, Kiwi, Indonesian, Malaysian, Japanese, Singaporean, Brazilian, Mexican, or Canadian markets, just to name a few. And, UK not too.

* As well as the NASDAQ and S&P, the markets that have so far recovered are China (Shanghai), Korea, Taiwan, Denmark and Argentina.

Obviously none of us knows, but given the disparity between the UK non recovery and pretty well the rest of the world,

See above.

P.S. Start here: https://finance.yahoo.com/world-indices

Many markets have recovered well, not just the US.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=22181&start=20#p334141

Don't forget to take exchange rates and dividends into account when comparing market returns.

ps Brexit may be a factor (possibly a significant factor for many mid caps), but I suspect it is the UK's overweight position in finance, natural resources and oil that is the main problem with the UK market.

[mc2fool]

Many markets have recovered well, not just the US.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=22181&start=20#p334141

Errr...the page you link to has negatives for everything other than the US. We're not talking about recovered from their lows, but recovered to pre-covid levels.

[hiriskpaul]

Many markets have recovered well, not just the US.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=22181&start=20#p334141

Errr...the page you link to has negatives for everything other than the US. We're not talking about recovered from their lows, but recovered to pre-covid levels.

Depends what date you ascribe to "pre-Covid". I used YTD figures. Yes still negative outside US, but most are well up on where they when I did my previous snapshot.

[mc2fool]

Many markets have recovered well, not just the US.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=22181&start=20#p334141

Errr...the page you link to has negatives for everything other than the US. We're not talking about recovered from their lows, but recovered to pre-covid levels.

Depends what date you ascribe to "pre-Covid". I used YTD figures. Yes still negative outside US, but most are well up on where they when I did my previous snapshot.

Yes, but your previous snapshot was even more negative! Re date, I simply eyeballed the YTD charts.

Here's a relevant table. Ignore the pretty map at the top and scroll down. YTD figures are the top ones in the right hand column. Venezuela is obviously the place to have been in.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/indices

[Lootman]

The US market is already back to its highs earlier this year, i.e. its all-time high. And is up year-to-date.

It's just the UK market that has not recovered.

Hardly "just". Methinks you have that the wrong way round. It'd be much more (albeit not totally*) accurate to say that it's just the USA market that has recovered.

And even then, only if you look at the NASDAQ and S&P. The DJIA & NYSE composite haven't, and neither have the Dutch, Belgian, France, German, Austrian, Italian, Irish, Spanish, Swedish, Norwegian, Portuguese, Swiss, Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, Kiwi, Indonesian, Malaysian, Japanese, Singaporean, Brazilian, Mexican, or Canadian markets, just to name a few. And, UK not too.

* As well as the NASDAQ and S&P, the markets that have so far recovered are China (Shanghai), Korea, Taiwan, Denmark and Argentina.

Obviously none of us knows, but given the disparity between the UK non recovery and pretty well the rest of the world,

See above.

P.S. Start here: https://finance.yahoo.com/world-indices

Many markets have recovered well, not just the US

Yes, China most notably given its size.

The US and China together are over 60% of global market cap, and so carry far more weight than the small countries cited as not doing so well.

Perhaps a look at a global index fund provides the best picture. VT was at $80.81 at the start of 2020 and is now at $82.

[gryffron]

I have assumed for a while now that the UK markets were pricing in a serious cock up at the end of the transition period, given recent performance by the Govt. that must surely be a very high probability.

The problem with that is that UK equities bear very little relation to the UK economy. With 75% of FTSE100 earnings now coming from abroad. So even if the UK economy tanks utterly, the effect on the UK stock market should be relatively small. Indeed, perversely, since most FTSE companies report in UKP, a collapse of the UK economy (and stering) should push the FTSE up.

So this obviously begs the question, exactly why is the UK stock market doing so poorly compared to RoTW? Pure sentiment?

Gryff