This could be the best time in 40 years to be buying British shares?

[swill453]

Well, I have no idea. But that's what the Sunday Times says today. Are we at the point of maximum pessimism that in the past has meant a good return for brave investors?

I really have no idea, how about others here?

Doesn't make sense. If now is good, then 23 March 2020 was much better. And that, if I'm not mistaken, was within the last 40 years.

Scott.

[swill453]

Of course this does flag up that the truth of the proposition is only ever apparent with hindsight. 'Twas ever thus.

Scott.

[Lootman]

Of course this does flag up that the truth of the proposition is only ever apparent with hindsight. .

The best three buying opportunities (with hindsight) in the last 40 years were March 2001, March 2009 and March 2020. So something about March, perhaps?

That said you would have been better buying 40 years ago and not trying to time the market.

[swill453]

Thanks, I think the article (it's paywalled) is saying that the March low was for all markets where many have regained value and gone on to new highs. But the UK market remains very weak. Hence in relative terms now would get a better entry point than March. However, it's journalism and we all know how the truth is massaged in favour of writing a good story.

The FTSE 100 is about 20% higher than in March, and the FTSE 250 about 35% higher. They'd have to do a lot of massaging to make it true...

Scott.

[swill453]

But that's a pretty poor showing against many other markets that are around new all time highs? Where the FTSE is still significantly lower than over twenty years ago?

No arguments there, but it doesn't make the Sunday Times article true.

Scott.

[swill453]

But that's a pretty poor showing against many other markets that are around new all time highs? Where the FTSE is still significantly lower than over twenty years ago?

No arguments there, but it doesn't make the Sunday Times article true.

Correct. There's only a 50 per cent chance. It all boils down to value shares becoming fashionable again, I suppose.

Don't understand that. I'd say there's zero chance. Unless they give more details of specific shares.

Scott.

[dealtn]

However, it's journalism and we all know how the truth is massaged in favour of writing a good story.

Not even a good story. It's a rehash on someone else's research, mainly focusses on the main Index, and the banks, oils etc. that make up much of it, and then has "recommendations" on the All Share Index.

That's about the standard of financial journalism these days unfortunately.

It still might be a good time to (relatively) buy the UK though.

[swill453]

There's an evens chance now is the best time to invest in UK shares for certain. Either they are right or they're wrong.

Have you blanked out the "in 40 years" bit?

Scott.

[Mike88]

I hope the Sunday Times is right. Ludicrously 76% of my portfolio is invested in UK listed shares although some are dual registered.

[scrumpyjack]

Trouble is the FTSE100 is stuffed with yesterday's companies in declining industries so it is hard to imagine some massive bounce back? Dead cat bounce maybe.

[flyer61]

What Scrumpy Jack said...however happy to by VMID to cover for most of my (limited) UK holdings.

Back off to buy some more Disney.....

[UncleEbenezer]

Of course this does flag up that the truth of the proposition is only ever apparent with hindsight. .

The best three buying opportunities (with hindsight) in the last 40 years were March 2001, March 2009 and March 2020. So something about March, perhaps?

That said you would have been better buying 40 years ago and not trying to time the market.

I think I spot a temporal fallacy. How many, save perhaps for one who are not merely senior Fools but also had riches early in life, had the money to invest at all 40 years ago? Not to mention, meet those eye-watering investment costs (instant 5% loss, yesno)? I was very proud of my savings account creeping up to £20 over the years, by virtue of Not Spending on anything more extravagant than school dinners.

The time to invest is when you have money!

[crazypanda]

Does this headline just not summarise the investing rule, ‘the best time to buy shares was 40 years ago, the second best time is today’. Not sure much insight beyond this from the article.

[kempiejon]

Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridg ... ch%20older.

[Adamski]

There are some UK growth prospects but problem is the UK economy has been trashed by Covid. Ours is the worst performance out of developed economies, crashing 20% in Q2, because of the government response was too slow and the over reliance on hospitality and services, and the recovery looks slow. Still a great nation, but can't see anything but very slow growth, as even with the right policies, structural problems would take a very low time to put right.

[UncleEbenezer]

Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridg ... ch%20older.

Though if you glitz it up enough it might feel like a Yes.

And did those feet, in ancient times ...

A bitterly sarcastic series of questions to which the answer is always a clear No. But now best known in Parry's bombastic setting which turns it into a patriotic song!