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Tech correction

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
Itsallaguess
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Re: Tech correction

#444239

Postby Itsallaguess » September 21st, 2021, 6:58 pm

Quint wrote:
Adamski wrote:
China correction continuing today. BG China Growth down 7.1% today, Pacific Horizon down 4.5% today due to growth fears. Steel output slump not a good sign for global growth. However guess this could/may be a good time to get into China as will eventually overtake the US economy, estimate 2028 be the world's largest economy, and stockmarket valuations will eventually reflect that.


Interesting article by Stephen Yiu (Blue Whale Growth) where he believes China has now become uninvestable due to the unpredictable actions of the government. I sold my only China Trust a while ago and have outsourced this decision to my global managers who are better placed to make a call on this.

Can't link the article as I can't remember where it was, may have been the Telegraph.


It was the Telegraph, and here's a link to the 18th September article -

Stephen Yiu, manager of the £980m Blue Whale Growth fund, said Chinese companies were almost uninvestable because of the political risks.

“There has always been some risk, but it has gone into overdrive. Businesses are no longer run for shareholders but for the Chinese Communist Party.

“Even if revenues keep growing, profits could be confiscated and companies could be nationalised. We have nothing invested in China right now. We did own one stock, Tencent, in 2018,” he said.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, added his voice to the debate, saying investing in China would prove a “tragic mistake”. He said CCP leader Xi Jinping regarded all private companies as instruments of the one-party state and investors who bought shares would face a rude awakening.

But others said political risk did not mean investors could not make money in China. Ewan Markson-Brown, of Crux Asset Management, said: “Investors have to stay on the right side of Beijing. There could still be worse to come for Chinese shares, but I imagine it will be over by the end of the year and there will be a recovery.”

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund group, said while investors should be mindful of the ongoing political tension, China would always be part of a balanced portfolio.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/china-has-become-uninvestable-can-still-profit-asian-stocks/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Adamski
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Re: Tech correction

#444721

Postby Adamski » September 23rd, 2021, 1:41 pm

I think George Soros despite his genius might have home bias.

I think US markets are overvalued and have been a long time since recovering from the covid crash, using metrics like market cap to gdp. Conversely China, UK, Europe are undervalued.

At some point in the future, China will overtake the US economy. Then having World markets which are 50% US and 10% China, and classing China as a "developing" country, will not make sense and have to change.

So you're going to get a realignment at some future point, either US - Tech correction down, or China going long way up. You can't do stimulus and money printing for ever, at some stage reality will catch up and you'll get inflation or crash, then we'll all say we saw that coming.

That's my thoughts as to why important to have some exposure to china/ pacific in a balanced portfolio and not be too overweight in the US.

richfool
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Re: Tech correction

#444733

Postby richfool » September 23rd, 2021, 2:29 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Quint wrote:
Adamski wrote:
China correction continuing today. BG China Growth down 7.1% today, Pacific Horizon down 4.5% today due to growth fears. Steel output slump not a good sign for global growth. However guess this could/may be a good time to get into China as will eventually overtake the US economy, estimate 2028 be the world's largest economy, and stockmarket valuations will eventually reflect that.


Interesting article by Stephen Yiu (Blue Whale Growth) where he believes China has now become uninvestable due to the unpredictable actions of the government. I sold my only China Trust a while ago and have outsourced this decision to my global managers who are better placed to make a call on this.

Can't link the article as I can't remember where it was, may have been the Telegraph.


It was the Telegraph, and here's a link to the 18th September article -

Stephen Yiu, manager of the £980m Blue Whale Growth fund, said Chinese companies were almost uninvestable because of the political risks.

“There has always been some risk, but it has gone into overdrive. Businesses are no longer run for shareholders but for the Chinese Communist Party.

“Even if revenues keep growing, profits could be confiscated and companies could be nationalised. We have nothing invested in China right now. We did own one stock, Tencent, in 2018,” he said.

George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, added his voice to the debate, saying investing in China would prove a “tragic mistake”. He said CCP leader Xi Jinping regarded all private companies as instruments of the one-party state and investors who bought shares would face a rude awakening.

But others said political risk did not mean investors could not make money in China. Ewan Markson-Brown, of Crux Asset Management, said: “Investors have to stay on the right side of Beijing. There could still be worse to come for Chinese shares, but I imagine it will be over by the end of the year and there will be a recovery.”

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund group, said while investors should be mindful of the ongoing political tension, China would always be part of a balanced portfolio.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/china-has-become-uninvestable-can-still-profit-asian-stocks/

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

Here was my earlier post on the subject, from the Telegraph on the 18th September, posted here:

viewtopic.php?p=443247#p443247

My concern is a geopolitical dispute involving China, and maybe Taiwan.

Humeau
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Re: Tech correction

#446214

Postby Humeau » September 29th, 2021, 10:38 am

I think China is misunderstood and Ray Dalio has made some pertinent points regarding the situation recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPNTRJxbq_w

Exposure to China can be gained through Prosus on the Euronext. It owns around 30% of Tencent and the complicated structure with Naspers hasn't helped investor sentiment. Looking past all that, I think that there is growth available at a deep discount.

However a tech correction will happen, sooner or later, but I don't think Tencent's business will be weaker as a result and I suspect that some of the side bets made by Prosus will come good eventually.

Adamski
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Re: Tech correction

#447801

Postby Adamski » October 4th, 2021, 5:04 pm

Heading toward correction territory again...

Nasdaq 100 down 2.6% today, 7.77% past month

China tech also down, JCGI down 3.3% today, 11.49% past month

Being hit by rising inflation, interest rates and market sentiment. Further to go, or buying opportunity?

ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: Tech correction

#447803

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » October 4th, 2021, 5:06 pm

Adamski wrote:Further to go, or buying opportunity?


I'm so horny!

Adamski
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Re: Tech correction

#448022

Postby Adamski » October 5th, 2021, 12:46 pm

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:


Kids borrowed your phone?! or becoming unhinged with your Smithson correction :lol:

AWOL
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Re: Tech correction

#448061

Postby AWOL » October 5th, 2021, 3:13 pm

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
Adamski wrote:Further to go, or buying opportunity?


I'm so horny!


Welcome to LemonHub

Am I the only person that feels increasingly relaxed about having lots of equity exposure the lower markets get. When they are doing well I get nose bleeds, when they sell off I feel that the risk is increasingly to the upside!

Adamski
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Re: Tech correction

#448062

Postby Adamski » October 5th, 2021, 3:19 pm

AWOL wrote:Am I the only person that feels increasingly relaxed about having lots of equity exposure the lower markets get. When they are doing well I get nose bleeds, when they sell off I feel that the risk is increasingly to the upside!


Not the only one, being relaxed is uncommon for us retail investors. Retail investors typically panic sell when you get a correction.

That's why the most profitable accounts with hl, aj Bell etc are those frozen awaiting probate, or because the user has forgotten their password and locked themselves out :lol:

Adamski
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Re: Tech correction

#475791

Postby Adamski » January 24th, 2022, 4:29 pm

Looks like in correction territory today

SMT down 21% ytd

Monks down 19% ytd

VUSA down 10% ytd

VWRL down 8% ytd

The usual tech sector pull back or something more?

airbus330
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Re: Tech correction

#475798

Postby airbus330 » January 24th, 2022, 4:40 pm

War worries for a start

NotSure
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Re: Tech correction

#475808

Postby NotSure » January 24th, 2022, 5:26 pm

Adamski wrote:Looks like in correction territory today

SMT down 21% ytd

Monks down 19% ytd

VUSA down 10% ytd

VWRL down 8% ytd

The usual tech sector pull back or something more?


Not to mention ARK Innovation ETF -32% YTD. Nasdaq currently headed towards circuit-breaker territory. Only green I can see is VIX - up 25% today :|

Some are suggesting Ukraine is the trigger, but many more seem to think The Fed - series of rate rises pencilled in, and even some QT, heaven forbid.

vand
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Re: Tech correction

#475810

Postby vand » January 24th, 2022, 5:29 pm

hmm, dunno.. my portfolio has held up remarkably well with ULVR, VOD, BATS & IMB - collectively 40% of the portfolio - all up!

Rotation in value...

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Re: Tech correction

#475832

Postby Newroad » January 24th, 2022, 7:13 pm

Hi Adamski et al.

Try charting from around 8th December last year (peak of the FTSE World Index).

It's worse than the YTD numbers.

Regards, Newroad

ADrunkenMarcus
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Re: Tech correction

#475854

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » January 24th, 2022, 8:35 pm

I am getting so horny!

Best wishes


Mark.

dealtn
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Re: Tech correction

#475910

Postby dealtn » January 25th, 2022, 8:46 am

This is Investment Strategies. It sounds like many here are acting more like traders than investors. Perhaps one of the lesser used boards

viewforum.php?f=53

is a more appropriate venue?

Adamski
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Re: Tech correction

#475964

Postby Adamski » January 25th, 2022, 11:27 am

dealtn wrote:This is Investment Strategies. It sounds like many here are acting more like traders than investors?


Hi, i think this is an appropriate place. There's been a tech sell off, the strategy would be how to react to that buy the dip, hold or sell. Personally I'll do nothing.

You could say best strategy would be hold a world tracker for 50 years, but then not much debate or need to write about it on the forum :D cheers adam

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Re: Tech correction

#475972

Postby dealtn » January 25th, 2022, 11:37 am

Adamski wrote:
dealtn wrote:This is Investment Strategies. It sounds like many here are acting more like traders than investors?


Hi, i think this is an appropriate place. There's been a tech sell off, the strategy would be how to react to that buy the dip, hold or sell. Personally I'll do nothing.

You could say best strategy would be hold a world tracker for 50 years, but then not much debate or need to write about it on the forum :D cheers adam


Well, I am not disagreeing. However posts such as "down X%", "try charting from this date" or similar, aren't exactly outlining any strategy of how to react.

I would be very happy, especially in this place, to hear and examine such strategies. But I am struggling to find any such expressions amongst the noise.

(Personally I am fully invested, and market moves of 10% or so are just "noise" not "news". If I do anything it will be switching between different equities - I hold very few that might be considered "tech", so have been affected more marginally than some it would seem.)

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Re: Tech correction

#476015

Postby TUK020 » January 25th, 2022, 1:53 pm

dealtn wrote:
Adamski wrote:
dealtn wrote:This is Investment Strategies. It sounds like many here are acting more like traders than investors?


Hi, i think this is an appropriate place. There's been a tech sell off, the strategy would be how to react to that buy the dip, hold or sell. Personally I'll do nothing.

You could say best strategy would be hold a world tracker for 50 years, but then not much debate or need to write about it on the forum :D cheers adam


Well, I am not disagreeing. However posts such as "down X%", "try charting from this date" or similar, aren't exactly outlining any strategy of how to react.

I would be very happy, especially in this place, to hear and examine such strategies. But I am struggling to find any such expressions amongst the noise.

(Personally I am fully invested, and market moves of 10% or so are just "noise" not "news". If I do anything it will be switching between different equities - I hold very few that might be considered "tech", so have been affected more marginally than some it would seem.)

I think the strategy being proposed is to stay fully invested, but monitor the Marcus Excitement Index. When this gets fully priapic, move a chunk to cash reserves so as to be ready to seize buying opportunities

NotSure
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Re: Tech correction

#476130

Postby NotSure » January 25th, 2022, 6:22 pm

dealtn wrote:(Personally I am fully invested, and market moves of 10% or so are just "noise" not "news". If I do anything it will be switching between different equities - I hold very few that might be considered "tech", so have been affected more marginally than some it would seem.)


Many tech shares and even some very popular ITs/ETFs etc. are down by a lot more than your 10% noise threshold.

I do not 'deal' (I do not even have any dealing type accounts) but I do have to decide where to put each months ISA deposit. As such, discussion on whether tech is in a bubble/correcting etc is of interest to me (especially in January which is my annual bonus month - should I 'buy the dip', DCA it over the next few months, or avoid altogether - e.g. Japan? UK? instead). Even the go-to 'global tracker' used by 'in-sophisticates' like me is very exposed to 'tech'.

Maybe this isn't the right forum, but I am not e.g. day trading options, and aim to LTBH as much as possible, so not sure the trading forum is right either.


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