The Lemon Fool

Quite a nice equal four way split IMO. Posting purely as I had the data/chart to hand.



Benchmarked to TJH HYP accumulation (calendar years total return data)

Concept/thought here is that cases of bad all-stock decades/years when in drawdown is less inclined to also coincide with 50/50 stock/gold worst cases and vice-versa, so averaging down (improving) the potential worst case outcomes via holding 50/50 of both.

BRK : Actively managed (levels of cash reserves) US large cap
FT250 : Passive index tracker small cap in US scale
FCIT : Foreign and Colonial ... as a 'world' fund



Those are gain attribute figures i.e. 25% of actual individual yearly gains figures/values.

I have just been looking at the last 5 years' figures from F&C Investment Trust (FCIT) and they bear no relation to those shown in the original post. I have held FCIT for over 20 years. Here are the correct figures for FCIT.

https://www.bmogam.com/fandc-investment ... d-updates/

A quote from the 2021 Annual Report -

'In the last ten years FCIT has grown a £1,000 investment, with dividends reinvested, to £3,130.'

Those are gain attribute figures i.e. 25% of actual individual yearly gains figures/values.

The values I showed are quarters of yearly total in reflection of 25% weightings. Multiplying each of the last ten years value by four and accumulate ....


and mine indicates £1000 having grown to £3098 versus the £3130 figure you indicated (less than 0.1% annualised difference over 10 years, rounding errors).

I did take the figures out of the Annual reports, for instance 2021 annual report page 92 indicates mid market price per share for year end 2020 and 2021 of 765 and 787 respectively and a 12.1 dividend so ( 787 + 12.1 - 765 ) / 765 = 0.44575 (4.44575% that I (under) recorded as being a 4.44% value).

I am also using calendar year end figures, maybe you're looking at mid year reporting figures?

I quite like your analysis, but I think including BRK undermines the point. Very few people, including Buffett himself, think it at all likely that BRKs future returns will resemble its past returns.

I’d suggest substituting for SPX.

Spet0789 wrote:I quite like your analysis, but I think including BRK undermines the point. Very few people, including Buffett himself, think it at all likely that BRKs future returns will resemble its past returns.

I’d suggest substituting for SPX.

Buffett has suggested that BRK is largely on auto-pilot, a closet 'sampled' (but managed i.e. cash reserves tend to rise and fall in a manner that can potentially see BRK fall less/rise more) type index fund, that in not paying dividends side steps US 15% (30%) withholding tax, which relative to a 2% dividend would otherwise = 0.3%/year. Over the last 10 years BRK has been pretty much a closet index fund.

Unlike Buffett (who for his wife on his demise suggests the trustees hold S&P500 index shares), Munger advises his heirs should continue to hold BRK.

But yes a S&P500 tracker fund instead of BRK might be as 'good enough'.

FCIT's latest portfolio update is here, for those interested:

https://www.investegate.co.uk/f--38-c-i ... 00062010C/

richfool wrote:FCIT's latest portfolio update is here, for those interested:

https://www.investegate.co.uk/f--38-c-i ... 00062010C/

No UK share in the top twenty. Very US-oriented.

TJH

Perhaps, TJH.

But nevertheless a global investment trust, yet underweight North America/US by index standards (and similarly, overweight UK).

So it depends upon whether one takes a relative or absolute view.

Regards, Newroad