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Tricky dilemma

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
GoSeigen
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Tricky dilemma

#456586

Postby GoSeigen » November 8th, 2021, 4:54 pm

I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


GS

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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456607

Postby RockRabbit » November 8th, 2021, 5:56 pm

Impossible to know!

Why not 'cheat' and break your purchase up into 3 or 4 tranches over a few weeks? If the price subsequently goes down, you can pat yourself on the back for not getting in too early. If it goes up, you're already in the money.

I used to own Vodafone until the Verizon sale. I must say they do look interesting again in current climate - 'cheap' shares, good income stream, predicted eps growth all within a fast growing sector.

What's the catch??

dealtn
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456612

Postby dealtn » November 8th, 2021, 6:08 pm

GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


GS


So what's the "Investment Strategy" or rationale for the purchase. Does 10% make a meaningful difference? Over what timeframe?

mc2fool
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456618

Postby mc2fool » November 8th, 2021, 6:30 pm

GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?

Methinks you are on the wrong board to have many that'll remember what you're referring to ... :D

CryptoPlankton
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456619

Postby CryptoPlankton » November 8th, 2021, 6:36 pm

dealtn wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


GS


So what's the "Investment Strategy" or rationale for the purchase. Does 10% make a meaningful difference? Over what timeframe?

You mean you're unfamiliar with the well known Foolish "wait for one pound" strategy for investing in Vodafone?

The future is exciting. Ready? ;)

Edit: beaten to it!

dealtn
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456622

Postby dealtn » November 8th, 2021, 6:40 pm

CryptoPlankton wrote:
dealtn wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


GS


So what's the "Investment Strategy" or rationale for the purchase. Does 10% make a meaningful difference? Over what timeframe?

You mean you're unfamiliar with the well known Foolish "wait for one pound" strategy for investing in Vodafone?

The future is exciting. Ready? ;)

Edit: beaten to it!


Yes. I took it as a genuine enquiry, not a joke. No need for me to try and be helpful then? Isn't there a dedicated board for humour?

tjh290633
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456631

Postby tjh290633 » November 8th, 2021, 6:59 pm

GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


GS

We had the same dilemma back in 2006. Someone on TMF was going to wait until they fell to 100p, which they did, but very briefly intra-day. I bought mine at 110p, on 16th August 2006.

TJH

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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456633

Postby CryptoPlankton » November 8th, 2021, 7:01 pm

dealtn wrote:
CryptoPlankton wrote:
dealtn wrote:
So what's the "Investment Strategy" or rationale for the purchase. Does 10% make a meaningful difference? Over what timeframe?

You mean you're unfamiliar with the well known Foolish "wait for one pound" strategy for investing in Vodafone?

The future is exciting. Ready? ;)

Edit: beaten to it!


Yes. I took it as a genuine enquiry, not a joke. No need for me to try and be helpful then? Isn't there a dedicated board for humour?

No, no need. Humour was once welcome, even encouraged, across the boards but it does seem to be becoming steadily more scarce as those who prefer a more sober environment proliferate...

Degsy67
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#456652

Postby Degsy67 » November 8th, 2021, 8:35 pm

GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


GS


That was hilarious. First post on Lemon Fool where I actually laughed out loud. Classic.

Degsy

Paul2566
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463757

Postby Paul2566 » December 7th, 2021, 9:53 am

I bought VOD a while ago, chased the SP down for a while and have 10787 sheres at average of £1.2628 including tax etc. hardly ideal.
While I like the dividend I am not so keen on red as a colour when it comes to stocks held.
I blame the VOD BOD for making some poor decisions.
The Vodafone takeover of German rival Mannesmann takes a bit of beating for sheer destruction of shareholder value, and still yet to fully recover, and that was 20 odd years ago.
Since I hold long term for the dividend which is still decent, the SP will only cause me a problem if I have to sell.
The BOD is I think a very different animal today, and I look forward to better times ahead.
Living in hope.......

tjh290633
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463760

Postby tjh290633 » December 7th, 2021, 10:12 am

Paul2566 wrote:I bought VOD a while ago, chased the SP down for a while and have 10787 sheres at average of £1.2628 including tax etc. hardly ideal.

The market is such that shares rise and fall. Currently I have 8 of my 36 shares showing a loss. I also have 3 with a negative cost, having recovered more than my original outlay through top-slicing. Only 2 are not paying dividends at the moment but, as you said, one lives in hope. Just remember that this year's losers are often next year's winners and vice versa. Here are the changes in the prices of the shares in my portfolio so far this year:

Epic     Change    Yield 
MKS 79.68% 0.00%
IMI 51.24% 1.31%
SGRO 46.42% 1.64%
S32 42.20% 2.53%
DGE 37.18% 1.89%
BP. 35.99% 4.53%
RDSB 33.27% 3.59%
BT.A 29.98% 4.45%
LLOY 26.99% 2.67%
KGF 23.56% 2.81%
AV. 22.85% 5.44%
UU. 22.68% 3.99%
TSCO 21.28% 3.27%
NG. 18.47% 4.93%
GSK 15.86% 5.21%
BA. 14.32% 4.39%
AZN 14.19% 2.47%
CPG 13.43% 0.93%
LGEN 8.72% 6.23%
SSE 8.70% 5.11%
BLND 8.18% 3.28%
BHP 6.94% 10.65%
ADM 2.92% 8.34%
IMB 2.44% 8.92%
SMDS 0.43% 3.25%
TW. -1.09% 5.08%
PHP -1.24% 4.16%
BATS -3.05% 8.35%
TATE -3.86% 4.88%
RKT -4.92% 2.82%
MARS -5.09% 0.00%
VOD -6.66% 6.95%
IGG -9.16% 5.58%
ULVR -10.59% 3.81%
PSON -11.67% 3.36%
RIO -16.04% 15.13%

Av.Chg 14.29% 4.50%

You can see the yields of each share as well. The prices have been up and down during the year, and some have resumed paying dividends.

TJH

Paul2566
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463789

Postby Paul2566 » December 7th, 2021, 11:17 am

tjh290633

I see we share some of the same stocks, great minds eh.

This is what I hold and % of current value in relation to my portfolio.

AAf 4.95%
ADM 4.02%
AV. 4.07%
BA. 4.34%
BP. 5.05%
DLG 7.1%
GLO 5.03%
GSK 4.48%
HSBA 4.28%
LGEN 4.7%
LLOY 4.12%
MXC 3.49%
NG. 4.64%
PHNX 4.04%
PLUS 3.82%
RIO 6.34%
SSE 4.56%
TRIG 4.38%
UKW 4.36%
ULVR 3.82%
UU. 4.55%
VOD 3.85%

dealtn
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463799

Postby dealtn » December 7th, 2021, 11:45 am

Paul2566 wrote:tjh290633

I see we share some of the same stocks, great minds eh.

This is what I hold and % of current value in relation to my portfolio.

AAf 4.95%
ADM 4.02%
AV. 4.07%
BA. 4.34%
BP. 5.05%
DLG 7.1%
GLO 5.03%
GSK 4.48%
HSBA 4.28%
LGEN 4.7%
LLOY 4.12%
MXC 3.49%
NG. 4.64%
PHNX 4.04%
PLUS 3.82%
RIO 6.34%
SSE 4.56%
TRIG 4.38%
UKW 4.36%
ULVR 3.82%
UU. 4.55%
VOD 3.85%


Most look quite "samey" in that a med-high yielding UK centric portfolio. Is that a fair assumption, your strategy being a large cap UK focussed income strategy. Might that lack some diversification in strategies?

Looking at AAF, GLO and MXC though, as they look different and therefore interesting (and new to me).

Paul2566
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463820

Postby Paul2566 » December 7th, 2021, 12:25 pm

dealtn wrote:
Paul2566 wrote:tjh290633

I see we share some of the same stocks, great minds eh.

This is what I hold and % of current value in relation to my portfolio.

AAf 4.95%
ADM 4.02%
AV. 4.07%
BA. 4.34%
BP. 5.05%
DLG 7.1%
GLO 5.03%
GSK 4.48%
HSBA 4.28%
LGEN 4.7%
LLOY 4.12%
MXC 3.49%
NG. 4.64%
PHNX 4.04%
PLUS 3.82%
RIO 6.34%
SSE 4.56%
TRIG 4.38%
UKW 4.36%
ULVR 3.82%
UU. 4.55%
VOD 3.85%


Most look quite "samey" in that a med-high yielding UK centric portfolio. Is that a fair assumption, your strategy being a large cap UK focussed income strategy. Might that lack some diversification in strategies?

Looking at AAF, GLO and MXC though, as they look different and therefore interesting (and new to me).


Yes at this time in my life I'm tending to favor dividend stocks over growth with a couple of exceptions as you have highlighted.
AAf I'm very keen on, its focused on an emerging market and has some good growth prospects, I also like its involvement with mobile banking, I thinks its relatively high risk but I've already top sliced a little to reduce my exposure and have an average of 84.95p, currently trading around £1.269 although when I top sliced it was in the £130's.
GLO again very keen, not going to make big leaps in the SP but it gives access to a lot of geographic areas, is in the green energy sector although still has some exposure to coal generated power, and pays a pretty decent dividend. The SP does bob about a little, but if you can get in somewhere near £2.88 with costs its a pretty reasonable bet.
MXC is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't suggest it, I would consider it extreemly high risk, and of the 22 stocks I hold its the only one that I think has the real potential to go to zero. But every 10 years or so my memory fades and I go mad and take a gamble. This is that madness. I'm currently 30% down, however I'm still holding as the next couple of months are going to be make or break. I still think this could do well long term as it has a lot of drugs in the pipeline, and in the shorter term it has a couple that could help with Covid, and provide short term gains. It is however a pure gamble play, and not one of my better choices. At my age I really should know better.

dealtn
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463828

Postby dealtn » December 7th, 2021, 12:39 pm

Paul2566 wrote:
Yes at this time in my life I'm tending to favor dividend stocks over growth with a couple of exceptions as you have highlighted.
AAf I'm very keen on, its focused on an emerging market and has some good growth prospects, I also like its involvement with mobile banking, I thinks its relatively high risk but I've already top sliced a little to reduce my exposure and have an average of 84.95p, currently trading around £1.269 although when I top sliced it was in the £130's.
GLO again very keen, not going to make big leaps in the SP but it gives access to a lot of geographic areas, is in the green energy sector although still has some exposure to coal generated power, and pays a pretty decent dividend. The SP does bob about a little, but if you can get in somewhere near £2.88 with costs its a pretty reasonable bet.
MXC is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't suggest it, I would consider it extreemly high risk, and of the 22 stocks I hold its the only one that I think has the real potential to go to zero. But every 10 years or so my memory fades and I go mad and take a gamble. This is that madness. I'm currently 30% down, however I'm still holding as the next couple of months are going to be make or break. I still think this could do well long term as it has a lot of drugs in the pipeline, and in the shorter term it has a couple that could help with Covid, and provide short term gains. It is however a pure gamble play, and not one of my better choices. At my age I really should know better.


Thank you.

If I were ever to focus on an income strategy I think I would do so over a wider range of options to diversify the strategy risk. Holding many more low-med yielders to offset the high yield risk, rather than construct a portfolio of high yielders. The latter may reduce some specific risks to individual shares, but there would still be a lot of correlation of similar types of shares (eg. large, UK, Old Industry, Sectors) that aren't being meaningfully diversified away. With issues such as Brexit, £ exposure, UK taxation, UK (party) politics etc. I wouldn't feel comfortable when I could do more by investing in overseas (or at least internationally exposed), or growth stocks etc.

It seems many here adhere to the 15-25 shares in a portfolio as an adequate diversification, even when spread over a number of "sectors", but as you can tell I don't subscribe to that as optimal.

My risk profile is probably significantly different to yours, and we need to be comfortable individually with our strategies, but I would be (much) more growth oriented than you.

Paul2566
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#463835

Postby Paul2566 » December 7th, 2021, 12:50 pm

dealtn wrote:
Paul2566 wrote:
Yes at this time in my life I'm tending to favor dividend stocks over growth with a couple of exceptions as you have highlighted.
AAf I'm very keen on, its focused on an emerging market and has some good growth prospects, I also like its involvement with mobile banking, I thinks its relatively high risk but I've already top sliced a little to reduce my exposure and have an average of 84.95p, currently trading around £1.269 although when I top sliced it was in the £130's.
GLO again very keen, not going to make big leaps in the SP but it gives access to a lot of geographic areas, is in the green energy sector although still has some exposure to coal generated power, and pays a pretty decent dividend. The SP does bob about a little, but if you can get in somewhere near £2.88 with costs its a pretty reasonable bet.
MXC is another thing entirely, and I wouldn't suggest it, I would consider it extreemly high risk, and of the 22 stocks I hold its the only one that I think has the real potential to go to zero. But every 10 years or so my memory fades and I go mad and take a gamble. This is that madness. I'm currently 30% down, however I'm still holding as the next couple of months are going to be make or break. I still think this could do well long term as it has a lot of drugs in the pipeline, and in the shorter term it has a couple that could help with Covid, and provide short term gains. It is however a pure gamble play, and not one of my better choices. At my age I really should know better.


Thank you.

If I were ever to focus on an income strategy I think I would do so over a wider range of options to diversify the strategy risk. Holding many more low-med yielders to offset the high yield risk, rather than construct a portfolio of high yielders. The latter may reduce some specific risks to individual shares, but there would still be a lot of correlation of similar types of shares (eg. large, UK, Old Industry, Sectors) that aren't being meaningfully diversified away. With issues such as Brexit, £ exposure, UK taxation, UK (party) politics etc. I wouldn't feel comfortable when I could do more by investing in overseas (or at least internationally exposed), or growth stocks etc.

It seems many here adhere to the 15-25 shares in a portfolio as an adequate diversification, even when spread over a number of "sectors", but as you can tell I don't subscribe to that as optimal.

My risk profile is probably significantly different to yours, and we need to be comfortable individually with our strategies, but I would be (much) more growth oriented than you.


I'm fast approaching the time when I will start a drawdown strategy, I have a reasonable final salary pension, and don't need to touch my nest egg at the moment so still trying to increase the pot, but at some point I'm going to start draw down, probably in the next 3 to 5 years. Ideally I would like to finish getting the stocks in the unsheltered BED account moved into our ISA wrappers, but 5 years may not be long enough to make that happen.

tjh290633
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#464088

Postby tjh290633 » December 7th, 2021, 11:13 pm

Paul2566 wrote:tjh290633

I see we share some of the same stocks, great minds eh.

I think that is inevitable if your objective is to obtain dividends. Bear in mind that my portfolio started in 1987 in this form. The only shares derived from my early holdings are BP., BT.A, LLOY and MKS. Additionally AZN demerged from ICI and IMB demerged from Hanson, so having heritage back to the early days.There have been a lot of changes along the way.

TJH

GoSeigen
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Re: Tricky dilemma

#467536

Postby GoSeigen » December 20th, 2021, 1:02 pm

GoSeigen wrote:I really really want to buy some Vodafone shares which are currently about 110p, but does anyone think it would be a good idea to wait for them to get a bit cheaper, I was thinking 100p?


Well I finally took the plunge and bought a few for 112p last Friday. Thanks everyone for sharing the laugh... oh the good old days!!

GS


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