Investments best positioned for a bad variant

[1nvest]

Perhaps the best investment might be a isolated home/cottage (farm/forest) that was relatively self-sufficient, along with some gold.

Time for me to again trundle out the old observation about gold when things get really, really, really bad. Nobody wants it. It is good for "only bad" but estimating the degree of "bad" is nigh on impossible so some gold would be useful.

I know of few modern examples of "really bad" but Saigon in the total collapse between the fall of the American-backed regime and the takeover by the commies is a pointer. Bantering for everything in the street was the norm. Those who came onto the street with gold in useful small Asian taels, about 50 gms, found no takers. Cigarettes apparently became a currency substitute being small value and essential for addicts. Size is important. Imagine trying to get change on the street from your full sized 25 lb gold bar.

TP2

Commodity currencies have gold positioned as a mid/longer term preserver or wealth. Can even be stored in seawater for decades with little erosion/decay. Across the periodic table it is the most uninteresting element, solid, manipulable/divisible, non-reactive, non-lethal ...etc. When a fiat currency falters/fails then yes other choices of commodity currencies step up to replace that, be it cigarettes (as in prisons), bars of soap ...etc. A stack of gold within a safe domain outside of ones residential domain enables that wealth to be converted once better times return into whatever fiat currency might then exist.

[Fluke]

All the companies that came up smelling of roses during the pandemic would continue to flourish in this scenario, so the tech companies, home builders, food/drink producers etc. But I think the real difference in this scenario is the effect it would likely have on the NHS, it could finally blow it apart. So biotech companies with world class research facilities might be a good bet as the government tries to put together a whole new health system suitable for the 21st century. Technology, AI, robotics being placed front and centre would not be beyond the bounds of possibility, and the 1.4 million workforce reduced by say half. That could throw up a few opportunities.

[gryffron]

Undertakers, btw, have done pretty badly during covid. Because of restrictions, funeral attendances (which are basically "events") have been limited, and people have spent less on them.

But have they spent less with the funeral directors?

I have a friend in the business. More funerals, fewer bells and whistles. Overall income about the same. Yes, the bigger losers have been the supporting industries. Florists, hospitality etc.

Gryff