Is Nvidia now the most important share on the planet?

[Lootman]

Another blowout earnings quarter. Up 15% today.

Now the third biggest company on the planet, above Amazon and Google, with a market cap approaching $2 trillion.

My position is up five-fold in just 18 months.

It is considered to be 5 years ahead of other competitors making AI chips and so has pricing power and huge margins.

Not sure I would get in now if not already in it. But what a ride.

[SalvorHardin]

Nvidia makes my 140% in eight months on SL Green Realty seem quite pedestrian

Performance like Nvidia's reminds me of a certain small cap oil in the early 2000s (which I did buy). Had I bought SLG when you bought Nvidia I'd be down 6%

Nvidia (and many other North American companies) shows the benefits of diversification by country rather than sticking to the UK.

As we've seen, the London Stock Exchange is not an attractive place to list tech stocks.

[Oggy]

Another blowout earnings quarter. Up 15% today.

Now the third biggest company on the planet, above Amazon and Google, with a market cap approaching $2 trillion.

My position is up five-fold in just 18 months.

It is considered to be 5 years ahead of other competitors making AI chips and so has pricing power and huge margins.

Not sure I would get in now if not already in it. But what a ride.

I have tech US ETF s and general US ETFs - all up accordingly. I do wonder how long it will last and worry if the bubble will burst. However, folk have been saying that for the past 20 years or so.....

[ukmtk]

The Nvidia price movements make me think of 1928.
I have a colleague who has a large holding of Nvidia telling me "the analysts say it'll reach $1100" - sounds like bubble territory to me.
Personally I think that AI is overrated - they are still simply neural nets - dependent on the training data.
I have holdings that have benefited in the uplift in the US but I tend to hold long term.

[simoan]

Obviously, well done on such great returns from your investment in Nvidia. Hopefully you lumped on and it gave your portfolio a huge outperformance.

However, I find the subject of this thread a bit strange - what do you mean by “important share”? It’s not even an important company. The world has managed pretty well without bitcoin and AI and I imagine would do so if Nvidia had never existed.

[NotSure]

About 2.5% of my portfolio in Nvidea - combination of World and US trackers. So I'm happy. Of course, all in would have been better!

Personally I think that AI is overrated - they are still simply neural nets - dependent on the training data.

Of course. Like in the industrial revolution, which was was just machines, dependent on the steel and skills used in their construction. Modern AI is very different to "classical" neural networks. Still just regressors at the end of the day, but very, very useful in certain circumstances.

Share probably are a bit overpriced at the moment, but not necessarily in a bubble. Have you seen Nvidia's books? Not exactly pets.com

The world has managed pretty well without bitcoin and AI and I imagine would do so if Nvidia had never existed.

Nvidia kit isn't much used for bitcoin any more, superseded by ASICs some years back. I can assure you AI is having a real and significant impact. My coding IDE autocomplete is getty uncanny, for example. That is, "brute" coding skills are becoming obsolete. Need domain knowledge and imagination/inspiration to outperform AI. This will impact productivity, profitability (and jobs market) of many businesses.

[Lootman]

Obviously, well done on such great returns from your investment in Nvidia. Hopefully you lumped on and it gave your portfolio a huge outperformance.

However, I find the subject of this thread a bit strange - what do you mean by “important share”? It’s not even an important company. The world has managed pretty well without bitcoin and AI and I imagine would do so if Nvidia had never existed.

Thank you. By "important" I meant more that recently it has become a bellwether for the market as a whole. So for example earlier this week sentiment was bad but that turned around on a dime when Nvidia reported earnings. All kinds of other shares went up in sympathy and last night both the DJIA and the S&P 500 hit all-time record highs. The Nasdaq is just a few points away as well.

Apple has been poor recently, MicroSoft has stalled at just above $400 and Tesla has been a disaster. So it is probably fair to consider Nvidia as the most influential share out there right now.

I claim no special insight into AI.

[ADrunkenMarcus]

Nvidia free cash flow yield looks to be projected around 2.5% for 2025, rising to 4% by 2027. Doesn't seem hugely insane but it does depend on continuing growth.

Best wishes


Mark.

[Sorcery]

Another blowout earnings quarter. Up 15% today.

Now the third biggest company on the planet, above Amazon and Google, with a market cap approaching $2 trillion.

My position is up five-fold in just 18 months.

It is considered to be 5 years ahead of other competitors making AI chips and so has pricing power and huge margins.

Not sure I would get in now if not already in it. But what a ride.

I'm not sure about 5 years ahead. AMD are only slightly behind, perhaps a year. At the same time Nvidia were building their H100s AMD were building the MI300 for what ought to be the world's largest supercomputer the El-Capitan.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-a ... ercomputer
The MI300 has been repurposed to compete better with Nvidia's H100 as the MI300X. On some (maybe most) benchmarks the MI300X is the best : https://www.semianalysis.com/p/amd-mi30 ... 20capacity.

Nvidia is the market leader and oldest in the AI space and will take some catching up (market-share-wise) but I think AMD can do it. AMD are not expecting to take much share from Nvidia until their second half starting October 24. AMD's market cap is only $285 billion.
Disclosure: I hold both Nvidia and AMD but with a lot more in AMD (I invested in AMD much earlier in 2017 and let it grow).

[simoan]

Obviously, well done on such great returns from your investment in Nvidia. Hopefully you lumped on and it gave your portfolio a huge outperformance.

However, I find the subject of this thread a bit strange - what do you mean by “important share”? It’s not even an important company. The world has managed pretty well without bitcoin and AI and I imagine would do so if Nvidia had never existed.

Thank you. By "important" I meant more that recently it has become a bellwether for the market as a whole. So for example earlier this week sentiment was bad but that turned around on a dime when Nvidia reported earnings. All kinds of other shares went up in sympathy and last night both the DJIA and the S&P 500 hit all-time record highs. The Nasdaq is just a few points away as well.

Apple has been poor recently, MicroSoft has stalled at just above $400 and Tesla has been a disaster. So it is probably fair to consider Nvidia as the most influential share out there right now.

I claim no special insight into AI.

OK. I agree that market leadership has narrowed even further for the S&P500 with most of the gains YTD coming from Meta and Nvidia with a nudge from Microsoft. I’m not a momentum investor and only ever buy when something meets my valuation process, so will always miss outliers like Nvidia which are growing very fast. I’ll also miss outliers at the other end of the spectrum too though, what you might call recovery plays. I admit I have no idea how to value such companies. That’s just a fact of life since I have de-risked my portfolio in the past few years, and as such I’m selling down my oversized Microsoft position.

[ZacSc]

The Nvidia price movements make me think of 1928.
I have a colleague who has a large holding of Nvidia telling me "the analysts say it'll reach $1100" - sounds like bubble territory to me.
Personally I think that AI is overrated - they are still simply neural nets - dependent on the training data.
I have holdings that have benefited in the uplift in the US but I tend to hold long term.

AI shows impressive results already. I don't think it's overrated. Take a look at the AI-generated images. It's never been done before. And I recently heard that the military is also using AI to find targets.

[Lootman]

Thank you. By "important" I meant more that recently it has become a bellwether for the market as a whole. So for example earlier this week sentiment was bad but that turned around on a dime when Nvidia reported earnings. All kinds of other shares went up in sympathy and last night both the DJIA and the S&P 500 hit all-time record highs. The Nasdaq is just a few points away as well.

Apple has been poor recently, MicroSoft has stalled at just above $400 and Tesla has been a disaster. So it is probably fair to consider Nvidia as the most influential share out there right now.

I claim no special insight into AI.

OK. I agree that market leadership has narrowed even further for the S&P500 with most of the gains YTD coming from Meta and Nvidia with a nudge from Microsoft. I’m not a momentum investor and only ever buy when something meets my valuation process, so will always miss outliers like Nvidia which are growing very fast. I’ll also miss outliers at the other end of the spectrum too though, what you might call recovery plays. I admit I have no idea how to value such companies. That’s just a fact of life since I have de-risked my portfolio in the past few years, and as such I’m selling down my oversized Microsoft position.

I do not know how to value any share. I cannot read annual reports nor balance sheets, and it would be a folly for me to try. Luckily there are more ways to invest than just by the numbers, otherwise I'd be in trouble.

I tend to take a top-down approach anyway, figuring that getting my asset allocation right is the best way to add value. And yes, I do look for a good story. Sometimes investing is like picking the winner in a beauty contest - you get the winner not by picking the prettiest girl but by picking the girl that most people will think is the prettiest.

Semiconductors are now a very important market sub-sector and so you either buy a chip ETF like US-listed SMH, or else you pick the chip stocks you think have an edge. For me that is Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD, in that order.

One other thing. Nvidia is now about 5% of the S&P 500 and about 3% of the global index. So anyone owning an index fund already has a big slug in Nvidia.

[ukmtk]

How many billions have been spent on making a car drive itself?
How are they easily confused - by putting a traffic cone on the car.
They are failing on some of the easiest streets in the world (US) in relatively easy conditions.

I shudder to think what will happen on an unlit road in winter weather in the Peak District (where I live).
Some AI is relatively good (e.g. examining cancer scans).

It cost $100 million to train ChatGPT.

[Tedx]

How many billions have been spent on making a car drive itself?
How are they easily confused - by putting a traffic cone on the car.
They are failing on some of the easiest streets in the world (US) in relatively easy conditions.

I shudder to think what will happen on an unlit road in winter weather in the Peak District (where I live).
Some AI is relatively good (e.g. examining cancer scans).

It cost $100 million to train ChatGPT.

Ah but how many trillions are they going to make when they get it to work?

[Lootman]

How many billions have been spent on making a car drive itself?
How are they easily confused - by putting a traffic cone on the car.
They are failing on some of the easiest streets in the world (US) in relatively easy conditions.

I shudder to think what will happen on an unlit road in winter weather in the Peak District (where I live).
Some AI is relatively good (e.g. examining cancer scans).

It cost $100 million to train ChatGPT.

Ah but how many trillions are they going to make when they get it to work?

According to James Altucher, the total addressable market of AI is $15 trillion.

Of course he has been wrong before, once managed to lose a $15 million fortune, and has had two failed marriages.

[ukmtk]

Today's news: Apple scraps plans for electric cars as here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/27/apple-scraps-plans-for-electric-cars/

Apple has cancelled its plans to build an electric car after reports that it was struggling to create a self-driving vehicle.

Apple has a nigh on bottomless pit of cash compared to most companies for RnD.
Likely it has some of the best engineers in the world too.

Doesn't mean that Nvidia isn't going to ship a lot of chips though.
A new article in the Economist said that its complete offering (chips & networking) is currently unique.

[GoSeigen]

Today's news: Apple scraps plans for electric cars as here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/27/apple-scraps-plans-for-electric-cars/

Apple has cancelled its plans to build an electric car after reports that it was struggling to create a self-driving vehicle.

Very sensible move IMO. Cutting their losses before they become unmanageable.

Worst investing mistake of my life was to sell my Apple shares instead of buying more.


GS

[tjh290633]

How many billions have been spent on making a car drive itself?
How are they easily confused - by putting a traffic cone on the car.
They are failing on some of the easiest streets in the world (US) in relatively easy conditions.

I shudder to think what will happen on an unlit road in winter weather in the Peak District (where I live).
Some AI is relatively good (e.g. examining cancer scans).

It cost $100 million to train ChatGPT.

Back in 1963 we were living near Bakewell. I had been to Manchester by train from Buxton, as our station Great Longstone had closed. Coming along the A6 I thought it was easy going until I caught up with the snowplough. About an hour later a coach party had to spend the night at the pub at Taddington because the snow had got too deep. I just wonder how self driving would work on 6 inches of virgin snow?

TJH

[Tedx]

Today's news: Apple scraps plans for electric cars as here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/27/apple-scraps-plans-for-electric-cars/

Apple has cancelled its plans to build an electric car after reports that it was struggling to create a self-driving vehicle.

Apple has a nigh on bottomless pit of cash compared to most companies for RnD.
Likely it has some of the best engineers in the world too.

Doesn't mean that Nvidia isn't going to ship a lot of chips though.
A new article in the Economist said that its complete offering (chips & networking) is currently unique.

According to talk show host JImmy Kimmel, Apple cancelled the electric car project purely because they couldn't figure out how to make folk buy a new one every year.

[servodude]

Today's news: Apple scraps plans for electric cars as here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/27/apple-scraps-plans-for-electric-cars/



Apple has a nigh on bottomless pit of cash compared to most companies for RnD.
Likely it has some of the best engineers in the world too.

Doesn't mean that Nvidia isn't going to ship a lot of chips though.
A new article in the Economist said that its complete offering (chips & networking) is currently unique.

According to talk show host JImmy Kimmel, Apple cancelled the electric car project purely because they couldn't figure out how to make folk buy a new one every year.

....I had a feeling that there was a joke like that in there somewhere