The Lemon Fool

I wonder whether the Oracle of Omaha is particularly concerned about Taiwan and China.

A considerably amount of Berkshire's "concentrated" portfolio is in Apple. Presumably they would be adversely effected were the worst to happen.

https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/warre ... ansactions

Given how much Warren reads and watches, one assumes he's mindful of this.

Matt

"The dotcom comparison is with Cisco, who were profitable and who provided the infrastructure to support the existence of dotcom firms. ..."

Exactly. As well as Cisco, there was Qualcomm and a dozen largecap tech stocks that crashed in 2000.

Sure it's great on the way up. But when there is a correction, these'll fall the fastest.

Seen more recently with Ark invest, Zoom, Peleton, and extent with Tesla. "This time its different."

It's not healthy for the world's market to be driven almost solely by the Mag 7, which is where most of the growth of the recent rally is from.

Aren't the European markets at all time highs too (except the UK, batch)?

I haven't checked, but I suspect they're being driven by high end luxury stocks because the rich are getting ever richer.

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I wonder whether the Oracle of Omaha is particularly concerned about Taiwan and China.

A considerably amount of Berkshire's "concentrated" portfolio is in Apple. Presumably they would be adversely effected were the worst to happen.

https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/warre ... ansactions

Given how much Warren reads and watches, one assumes he's mindful of this.

Matt

https://fortune.com/2023/05/16/warren-b ... wan-china/

All the best, Si

simoan wrote:https://fortune.com/2023/05/16/warren-b ... wan-china/

Paywall. Perhaps you could summarise the gist.

try here
https://fortune-com.translate.goog/2023 ... _hist=true

Quite an interesting question. Over and above TSMC specifically, I assume Buffett and Apple must have given the matter some thought and at least started putting in place "arrangements". BH appears to have $180 Bn in AAPL, or an estimated approx. 20% of its total holdings, which as a big holder of BRK.B makes me wonder a bit ...

I'm not sure Apple phones are forced to use Taiwanese chips specifically, but I do believe that they still manufacture a lot in PRC. Would (certain) imports to the US from PRC be banned in the event of some horrible attack by Winnie the Pooh Jinping? On the face of it this seems pretty unlikely (speaking authoritatively from my default position of complete ignorance).

Tedx wrote:Aren't the European markets at all time highs too (except the UK, batch)?

I haven't checked, but I suspect they're being driven by high end luxury stocks because the rich are getting ever richer.

In 2023, the largest increases in European market cap were Novo Nordisk (Danish pharm, with a successful weight loss drug) and ASML (Dutch chip machine manufacturer). Luxury brands L'Oreal, Hermes and LVMH are in the top 10 too.

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/2 ... tocks.aspx
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/2 ... ities.aspx

The biggest loser (by far) was Richemont, which I hadn't heard of before - a Swiss luxury brands conglomerate (Cartier, Dunhill, Mont Blanc and many others).

Since the start of 2024, ASML is +34%; Novo Nordisk +21%. LVMH and Hermes are up 17% and 21%; L'Oreal is flat. Those 5 are in the top 6 by market capitalisation (the other is Nestle: https://ceoworld.biz/2024/02/14/europes ... tion-2024/ )

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Yeah definitely. I guess I'm too busy with other stuff to play around too much with our setup.

If it hits $820 ish again perhaps I'll sell some. But yeah, only to put on boring things instead.

Nvidia closed last night at $822!

mrodent wrote:

simoan wrote:https://fortune.com/2023/05/16/warren-b ... wan-china/

Paywall. Perhaps you could summarise the gist.

Strange. The link works fine on my phone running Brave.

Lootman wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Yeah definitely. I guess I'm too busy with other stuff to play around too much with our setup.

If it hits $820 ish again perhaps I'll sell some. But yeah, only to put on boring things instead.

Nvidia closed last night at $822!

Still doesn’t look too expensive IMO. I’ve just been looking at the Big 6 (forget Tesla) forecasts and my favoured pick would be Alphabet on current valuation; PE of 20 and 4% FCF yield. If I had to pick a second it would be Nvidia.

simoan wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:I wonder whether the Oracle of Omaha is particularly concerned about Taiwan and China.

A considerably amount of Berkshire's "concentrated" portfolio is in Apple. Presumably they would be adversely effected were the worst to happen.

https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/warre ... ansactions

Given how much Warren reads and watches, one assumes he's mindful of this.

Matt

https://fortune.com/2023/05/16/warren-b ... wan-china/

All the best, Si

I know - I remember when opened his TSMC position and when he ditched it. But that was a tiny position. And given that it was dwarfed by their huge position in AAPL they are incredibly exposed to geopolitical risk:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... -chain.asp

Lootman wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Yeah definitely. I guess I'm too busy with other stuff to play around too much with our setup.

If it hits $820 ish again perhaps I'll sell some. But yeah, only to put on boring things instead.

Nvidia closed last night at $822!

Lol. Yeah I saw, but I didn't sell a single share. I made that post before looking up their recent profits mentioned later on...

viewtopic.php?p=650360#p650360

Bloody glad I checked that out before making a rash sales decision. I believe that the bulk of their revenue comes from fuelling the growth (and maintanence) of data centres forming the core of the cloud computing industry. And since I don't see that particular enterprise slowing down much I'm assuming that NVDA's profitability will persist, until a competitor in this arena emerges.

Matt

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

simoan wrote:https://fortune.com/2023/05/16/warren-b ... wan-china/

All the best, Si

I know - I remember when opened his TSMC position and when he ditched it. But that was a tiny position. And given that it was dwarfed by their huge position in AAPL they are incredibly exposed to geopolitical risk:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... -chain.asp

Size of position doesn’t matter but the reason for him selling out does, which he made abundantly clear. Last I heard Apple used Samsung to fab its own chips and it’s public knowledge it is switching iPhone production from China to India. Of course, it still has indirect exposure to Taiwan via chips produced by its suppliers.

Not that it matters what anyone else thinks. You have to assess risks for yourself and act accordingly.

Sort of related as Nvidia is about 6% of this fund - Sanlam Glb Artfcll Intlgc I GBP Bs Acc. I wondered if it may be worth a punt given my penchant for a little more diversity.......

Just watched this. For me, this gave a really accessible intro to the hype.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6R7Ym6Vy_I

Matt

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

Lootman wrote:Nvidia closed last night at $822!

Lol. Yeah I saw, but I didn't sell a single share. I made that post before looking up their recent profits mentioned later on...

viewtopic.php?p=650360#p650360

Bloody glad I checked that out before making a rash sales decision. I believe that the bulk of their revenue comes from fuelling the growth (and maintanence) of data centres forming the core of the cloud computing industry. And since I don't see that particular enterprise slowing down much I'm assuming that NVDA's profitability will persist, until a competitor in this arena emerges.

Good call, it just opened at $880!

Next stop $1,000 and then a stock split?

And then possibly onto a $3 trillion market cap, overtaking Apple? Currently NVDA is at 2.2T and Apple is at 2.6T!

Lootman wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Lol. Yeah I saw, but I didn't sell a single share. I made that post before looking up their recent profits mentioned later on...

viewtopic.php?p=650360#p650360

Bloody glad I checked that out before making a rash sales decision. I believe that the bulk of their revenue comes from fuelling the growth (and maintanence) of data centres forming the core of the cloud computing industry. And since I don't see that particular enterprise slowing down much I'm assuming that NVDA's profitability will persist, until a competitor in this arena emerges.

Good call, it just opened at $880!

Next stop $1,000 and then a stock split?

And then possibly onto a $3 trillion market cap, overtaking Apple? Currently NVDA is at 2.2T and Apple is at 2.6T!

Ha ha, keep up to date, Lootman! Climbed to $946 in after hours trading. Any minute now we'll be reminded it's a bubble

TBF I guess how well this is sustained depends on them continuing their profit growth path.

I like AI but having lived through the dot com bubble this does feel familiar.

What do people think would be negatively correlated with the Magnificent 7 or top US stocks given the concentration at the moment?

I'm shy of topping up into global equities at the moment due to the recent run-up of these stocks, but then am left with the question "if not these, then what?".

Their performance in the AI chip game is seriously impressive, giving them a real edge over the competition. But jumping in now might be a bit risky considering how much it's already shot up.