The Lemon Fool

Here is a very interesting video, "The Trillion Dollar Equation":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5w-dEgIU1M

From 600 BC to Black-Scholes and beyond, market efficiency and all of that. Given enough brain and processing power, you can beat the market, until the market knows how it is done, and then you cannot, and then it becomes harder...

GeoffF100 wrote:Here is a very interesting video, "The Trillion Dollar Equation":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5w-dEgIU1M

Interestingly, the first Comment under there mentions Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).

I have a copy Of "When Genius Failed" by Roger Lowenstein. "The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management"

There is an interesting graph, just before the Introduction: "Gross value of $1 Invested March 1994-October 1998"

Things were wonderful, until they all started to go tits up from around May 1998. I remember during Autumn 1998, when I was still relatively new to share investing, I suddenly started finding my portfolio was continually losing value at around £3000 per week over several weeks, without understanding what was going on. Looking at Lowenstein's graph...

But the big mystery surely is, with LTCM as a dress rehearsal, how did it ever come to happen again on an even bigger scale, with the 2008 GFC?

XFool wrote:

GeoffF100 wrote:Here is a very interesting video, "The Trillion Dollar Equation":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5w-dEgIU1M

Interestingly, the first Comment under there mentions Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM).

I have a copy Of "When Genius Failed" by Roger Lowenstein. "The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management"

There is an interesting graph, just before the Introduction: "Gross value of $1 Invested March 1994-October 1998"

Things were wonderful, until they all started to go tits up from around May 1998. I remember during Autumn 1998, when I was still relatively new to share investing, I suddenly started finding my portfolio was continually losing value at around £3000 per week over several weeks, without understanding what was going on. Looking at Lowenstein's graph...

But the big mystery surely is, with LTCM as a dress rehearsal, how did it ever come to happen again on an even bigger scale, with the 2008 GFC?

That must have very much depended on your portfolio. The MSCI World Index went from $136.97 in July 1998 to $118.68 in August, but by November was back to $139.46.
https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/market-ind ... rrency=usd
For most people, it was just a few months of variation.