The Lemon Fool

Tesco's sales and profits are up. Inflation is falling. The banks seem to be recovering. Heck, even Rolls Royce and Aviva are doing ok. The FTSE is heading towards 8000.

Have we entered a new UK bull market? Asking for a friend.

Well almost every other developed market in the world seems to be having a bit of a bull run - except the UK of course.

I guess moderating inflation and the hope of falling interest rates are getting markets excited - with some additional contributions from special stocks in the US and the EU (which we don't appear to have in Blighty) (We thought we did, but they f-offed to the US)

Oh well. Buy the UK because its risen the least and all the others have a large amount of gains already baked in?

I'd just buy a global tracker if it was me. If I was a bit nervous, I'd stage the investments.

Quite possibly. The Mag 7 may be running out of steam last few werks. In which case the undervalued markets like ours, Germany and china might have inflows, and may outperform. However I've been saying that for years!!

Interest rates are going to fall sooner in the Uk and EU than in the US, which has an overheating economy so theres no driver to reduce interest rates.

The Uk market could well outperform other markets over the next year. Even Labour are rated as having more economic competence than the tories, so they get in…..

If so does that mean shares are on a high so conserve cash ready for the next fall.

Still in 30 years time it will just be a wiggle on a line

Adamski wrote:Quite possibly. The Mag 7 may be running out of steam last few werks. In which case the undervalued markets like ours, Germany and china might have inflows, and may outperform. However I've been saying that for years!!

Do you mean retail funds will experience inflows?

If so that makes no sense if they are undervalued as you say. If you just look around these boards for instance people are far more interested in gilts, bonds and hybrid FI than in shares, I think we need to wait until shares are somewhat overvalued before the interest shifts.

Just my opinion, but if you have been saying the same thing for years and been wrong then you might want to consider the flaw in the argument...

GS

I'm seeing some big falls today, e.g. TSCO and LGEN. Has something happened?

MrFoolish wrote:I'm seeing some big falls today, e.g. TSCO and LGEN. Has something happened?

Tesco seems to have just lost a big gain that came yesterday from their results - close of Tuesday was 286.8, now 282, but in between it had been 305.8.

Not sure what happened with Legal & General - a sudden fall at the end of today. On edit: I wonder if that "sudden fall" is just a reporting glitch, out of hours (these things happen). If you look at the stock exchange page for it:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/sto ... mpany-page
most of the reported trades between 1630 and 1720 are around 248p, but there's just one at 1710 at 234p. That may get counted as the "end of day" price by some, but looks an anomaly.

EthicsGradient wrote:

MrFoolish wrote:I'm seeing some big falls today, e.g. TSCO and LGEN. Has something happened?

Tesco seems to have just lost a big gain that came yesterday from their results - close of Tuesday was 286.8, now 282, but in between it had been 305.8.

Not sure what happened with Legal & General - a sudden fall at the end of today.

Isn't it just following the big drop in the US this week? Based on more bad news about possible rate cuts from the Fed?

If the S&P 500 cannot move beyond 5,200 or so then I can't see the UK market miraculously out-performing. And 5,200 is already a decent 10% or so gain YTD.

Gold, oil, copper all doing well however . . .

Lootman wrote:

EthicsGradient wrote:Tesco seems to have just lost a big gain that came yesterday from their results - close of Tuesday was 286.8, now 282, but in between it had been 305.8.

Not sure what happened with Legal & General - a sudden fall at the end of today.

Isn't it just following the big drop in the US this week? Based on more bad news about possible rate cuts from the Fed?

If the S&P 500 cannot move beyond 5,200 or so then I can't see the UK market miraculously out-performing. And 5,200 is already a decent 10% or so gain YTD.

Gold, oil, copper all doing well however . . .

I edited while you were replying - the share price you see on Google if you search "L&G share price" shows a sudden fall at the end of today, but examination of trades on the LSE website shows one odd low one, surrounded by others at roughly the price it had been for most of today. That can look like a drop from 250p to 234p, whereas it's probably from 250p to 248p in reality.

GoSeigen wrote: If you just look around these boards for instance people are far more interested in gilts, bonds and hybrid FI than in shares

Are they? Most of the interest I have seen here in gilts has been in short-dated gilts trading under par. And that is not a bet on yields declining materially. It is more a substitute for holding cash in a savings account, taking advantage of the fact that there is no CGT on capital accretion in gilts, which there probably should be.

I am not seeing many bets on bond yields going back down to GFC/Covid levels. Those who got freakishly lucky back then are unlikely to do it again. Any interest you see is probably more based on the perception by more cautious souls that 4%-5% a year with bonds might be less risky than shares that typically give you twice that.

Lootman wrote:
Gold, oil, copper all doing well however . . .

These all look set for good growth in the medium and long term to me. Copper especially given the way demand will rocket as the world turns electric.

How does a muppet like me invest in copper, inside an ISA? The miners presumably. Or have I missed the boat really...?

Mike4 wrote:

Lootman wrote:Gold, oil, copper all doing well however . . .

These all look set for good growth in the medium and long term to me. Copper especially given the way demand will rocket as the world turns electric.

How does a muppet like me invest in copper, inside an ISA? The miners presumably. Or have I missed the boat really...?

I think the only copper ETFs are US-listed and probably not available to European investors.

But individual companies with a big exposure to copper include Southern Copper (SCCU), Teck Resources (TECK), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) which bought specialist copper miner Phelps Dodge a few years ago.

Mike4 wrote:

Lootman wrote:
Gold, oil, copper all doing well however . . .

These all look set for good growth in the medium and long term to me. Copper especially given the way demand will rocket as the world turns electric.

How does a muppet like me invest in copper, inside an ISA? The miners presumably. Or have I missed the boat really...?

I was considering this today. COPA is a GBP denominated copper ETC

Dicky99 wrote:

Mike4 wrote:
These all look set for good growth in the medium and long term to me. Copper especially given the way demand will rocket as the world turns electric.

How does a muppet like me invest in copper, inside an ISA? The miners presumably. Or have I missed the boat really...?

I was considering this today. COPA is a GBP denominated copper ETC

Sorry it's COPB that's GBP denominated

The success of Rolls Royce and Aviva is also uplifting. The 8,000 mark on the FTSE is truly impressive. However, when it comes to defining a new bull market, it is important to remember that it is a more complex and long-term process. While positive market trends are great, in order to talk about the start of a bull market, it is necessary to see sustained and long-term improvement on various fronts of the economy and finances.

Thank you Lucas. I always appreciate your posts.