redsturgeon wrote: 1nvest wrote:
My by-eye casual guesstimate is that perhaps 29 million of the UK population may already have had it (43% of the population). ONS figures ...
which might explain why crowded beaches/parks and mass protests hasn't seen a sharp number of hospital admissions.
i.e. Government under-reported number of Covid deaths (around half the number reported as having died), so 80,000 deaths / 0.0028 Crude Mortality Rate type figure as a indicator of total number of contractions. Broadly 10,000/week die in the UK and the area above that average in the chart above seems to suggest a 80,000 additional (above average) number.
In which case pubs/restaurants opening this weekend may similarly see subsequent hospital admissions remaining low. At least here's hoping so. If the rest contract it before the winter/flu season, then we could be coming out of the woods and be back to normal again before the end of the year.
US seems to be behind on that scale. Proportionately reporting around 60% of the number of UK deaths, so presumably still on the steep part of the herd immunity transition curve. Yet others that have kept figures right down may still see the same proportion of deaths overall by the time herd immunity is evident, but where they'll be in repeated lockdown/openup/lockdown cycles for much longer, and enduring the more prolonged economic hit that involves. Could still all end with the UK having been seen to have taken the best approach - and is perhaps why Johnson has said that its the final outcome that we should be measured by rather that the ongoing interim numbers.
I hope you are correct but how do we explain the Leicester blip?
With say 29 million having had it, that's still 35 million that haven't, so the spread would still do its thing and rage in some areas, not others. Culture/lifestyle maybe. Ramadan perhaps. My (SE residential) neighbours who are Muslim have had many different faces coming and going as though lockdown didn't exist.
I guess with a long way to go (maybe up to 35 million yet to contract it), a second wave might repeat the first wave, but to less magnitude - half the size of the first wave), and then a third wave half the size of the second ...etc.
I believe that the large Nightingale centres were little used, so hospitalisation capacity is vastly improved, as is there better understanding/treatments. If 10,000/week on average die in the UK then the current numbers of Covid mortalities are very low relative to that. Still of course sad for each individual case, but not enough to shut down the economy and the potential risks/costs that involves. Suspect that by the time its pretty much concluded the official figures might be reporting 80,000 deaths, actual figures perhaps twice that. Primary risks as I see it are that immunity is short lived, and/or if it evolves into a far deadlier strain as the Spanish flu did (low single digit first wave mortality rates, 30%+ second wave mortality rates). On the flip side, a vaccine might be found.