Apologies for quoting a MRNA post of yours over on a different board, but after following one of the links you shared, had my mindful of a new possible avenue of "next investment" research.
SalvorHardin wrote:From what I've been told (and can remember), Genomic sequencing is one of the many tools that will revolutionise medicine through "Precision Biology". I can't be any more specific than that as it's well outside my circle of competence.
It's the combination of biological techniques, computers, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, 3D printing and others fields, to allow us to do all sorts of manipulation at the cellular level at very high speeds. Such as Moderna taking just two days to make its mRNA coronavirus vaccine.
Huge applications in personalised medicine. Even 3D printed meat.
This article of precision fermentation gives some good examples.
https://rethinkx.medium.com/precision-fermentation-what-exactly-is-it-7004eeaa798e
I'm not sure whether you went this far but I ended up following one of the rethinkx links and sacrificing a trash email address and I downloaded their RethinkXFoodandAgricultureReport.pdf.
I'm only part way through but it's fascinating. The cost implications of manufactured meat protein are awesome, and could conceiveably bankrupt livestock and crop farming.
The cost of modern foods and other precision fermentation products will be at least 50% and as much as 80% lower than the animal products they replace, which will translate into substantially lower prices and increased disposable incomes.
At current prices, revenues of the U.S. beef and dairy industry and their suppliers, which together exceed $400bn today, will decline by at least 50% by 2030, and by nearly 90% by 2035. All other livestock and commercial fisheries will follow a similar trajectory.
It could also totally shift the geopolitics of food, since any country that can site a factory can manufacture their protein.
The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50%, from 155 million tons in 2018 to 80 million tons in 2030. This means that, at current prices, feed production revenues for cattle will fall by more than 50%, from $60bn in 2018 to less than $30bn in 2030.
Major producers of animal products are at risk of a serious economic shock. Countries that produce large quantities of conventional animal products and inputs to animal farming like Brazil, where more than 21% of GDP comes from agriculture – 7% of which is from livestock alone – are particularly vulnerable.
Some interesting environmental and energy sources repercussions.
By 2030, at least half of the demand for oil from the U.S. agriculture industry – currently running at about 150 million barrels of oil equivalent a year – will disappear as all parts of the supply chain related to growing and transporting cattle are disrupted.
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from cattle will drop by 60% by 2030, on course to nearly 80% by 2035. Even when the modern food production that replaces animal agriculture is included, net emissions from the sector as a whole will decline by 45% by 2030, on course to 65% by 2035.
I did think to myself, would I be conceptually willing to eat meat grown in factories? Quite possibly, I already eat cheese and bread, which are the products of a fermentation process. However, the winning argument, I guess will be price, especially once vegetarians create a big enough demand for this kind of stuff (e.g. in KFC, Burger King etc.) and when their carnivorous friends try a meatful, and realise "that tastes pretty good - and it's half the price!"
must get back to the article,
Matt