Shares, Investment and Personal Finance Discussion Forums
https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/
redsturgeon wrote:I hope you are correct but how do we explain the Leicester blip?
redsturgeon wrote:1nvest wrote:My by-eye casual guesstimate is that perhaps 29 million of the UK population may already have had it (43% of the population). ONS figures ...
which might explain why crowded beaches/parks and mass protests hasn't seen a sharp number of hospital admissions.
i.e. Government under-reported number of Covid deaths (around half the number reported as having died), so 80,000 deaths / 0.0028 Crude Mortality Rate type figure as a indicator of total number of contractions. Broadly 10,000/week die in the UK and the area above that average in the chart above seems to suggest a 80,000 additional (above average) number.
In which case pubs/restaurants opening this weekend may similarly see subsequent hospital admissions remaining low. At least here's hoping so. If the rest contract it before the winter/flu season, then we could be coming out of the woods and be back to normal again before the end of the year.
US seems to be behind on that scale. Proportionately reporting around 60% of the number of UK deaths, so presumably still on the steep part of the herd immunity transition curve. Yet others that have kept figures right down may still see the same proportion of deaths overall by the time herd immunity is evident, but where they'll be in repeated lockdown/openup/lockdown cycles for much longer, and enduring the more prolonged economic hit that involves. Could still all end with the UK having been seen to have taken the best approach - and is perhaps why Johnson has said that its the final outcome that we should be measured by rather that the ongoing interim numbers.
I hope you are correct but how do we explain the Leicester blip?
John
Mike4 wrote:redsturgeon wrote:1nvest wrote:My by-eye casual guesstimate is that perhaps 29 million of the UK population may already have had it (43% of the population). ONS figures ...
which might explain why crowded beaches/parks and mass protests hasn't seen a sharp number of hospital admissions.
i.e. Government under-reported number of Covid deaths (around half the number reported as having died), so 80,000 deaths / 0.0028 Crude Mortality Rate type figure as a indicator of total number of contractions. Broadly 10,000/week die in the UK and the area above that average in the chart above seems to suggest a 80,000 additional (above average) number.
In which case pubs/restaurants opening this weekend may similarly see subsequent hospital admissions remaining low. At least here's hoping so. If the rest contract it before the winter/flu season, then we could be coming out of the woods and be back to normal again before the end of the year.
US seems to be behind on that scale. Proportionately reporting around 60% of the number of UK deaths, so presumably still on the steep part of the herd immunity transition curve. Yet others that have kept figures right down may still see the same proportion of deaths overall by the time herd immunity is evident, but where they'll be in repeated lockdown/openup/lockdown cycles for much longer, and enduring the more prolonged economic hit that involves. Could still all end with the UK having been seen to have taken the best approach - and is perhaps why Johnson has said that its the final outcome that we should be measured by rather that the ongoing interim numbers.
I hope you are correct but how do we explain the Leicester blip?
John
Is there really a Leicester blip though? Friend of mine was trying to find data by city to verify it and couldn't. Can you cite some data please?
Mike4 wrote:
Is there really a Leicester blip though? Friend of mine was trying to find data by city to verify it and couldn't. Can you cite some data please?
Mike4 wrote:.
No source attribution provided though AFAICS, which is disappointing. Do you have any idea what source they are quoting from? I guess I was hoping to be able to look at the comparable data for other cities.
Alaric wrote:Mike4 wrote:.
No source attribution provided though AFAICS, which is disappointing. Do you have any idea what source they are quoting from? I guess I was hoping to be able to look at the comparable data for other cities.
Presumably the ONS (Office for National Statistics)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... r=datasets
That gives statistics by region, presumably they also have detail by local authority.
Mike4 wrote:Alaric wrote:Mike4 wrote:.
No source attribution provided though AFAICS, which is disappointing. Do you have any idea what source they are quoting from? I guess I was hoping to be able to look at the comparable data for other cities.
Presumably the ONS (Office for National Statistics)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... r=datasets
That gives statistics by region, presumably they also have detail by local authority.
One would have thought so. Deaths perhaps, but no local infection statistics AFAICS.
It's beginning to look as though my friend who asserts the govt have taken down all the infections by local area e.g. Leicester, is right.
redsturgeon wrote:1nvest wrote:My by-eye casual guesstimate is that perhaps 29 million of the UK population may already have had it (43% of the population). ONS figures ...
which might explain why crowded beaches/parks and mass protests hasn't seen a sharp number of hospital admissions.
i.e. Government under-reported number of Covid deaths (around half the number reported as having died), so 80,000 deaths / 0.0028 Crude Mortality Rate type figure as a indicator of total number of contractions. Broadly 10,000/week die in the UK and the area above that average in the chart above seems to suggest a 80,000 additional (above average) number.
In which case pubs/restaurants opening this weekend may similarly see subsequent hospital admissions remaining low. At least here's hoping so. If the rest contract it before the winter/flu season, then we could be coming out of the woods and be back to normal again before the end of the year.
US seems to be behind on that scale. Proportionately reporting around 60% of the number of UK deaths, so presumably still on the steep part of the herd immunity transition curve. Yet others that have kept figures right down may still see the same proportion of deaths overall by the time herd immunity is evident, but where they'll be in repeated lockdown/openup/lockdown cycles for much longer, and enduring the more prolonged economic hit that involves. Could still all end with the UK having been seen to have taken the best approach - and is perhaps why Johnson has said that its the final outcome that we should be measured by rather that the ongoing interim numbers.
I hope you are correct but how do we explain the Leicester blip?
John
redsturgeon wrote:Latest on Leicester show top ten cities with most cases
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... e-53290314
John
GoSeigen wrote:swill453 wrote:GoSeigen wrote:by GoSeigen » June 7th, 2020
I think there's a new acceleration happening now... looking at 12000 deaths pd within two to three weeks time IMO.
The deaths pd hasn't broken out of the 2000-6000 range for more than 30 days now. Yesterday standing at 4281. Still sticking by this prediction?
Not sure about the timing but it looks like cases are growing, so yes, I think so.
swill453 wrote:GoSeigen wrote:swill453 wrote:The deaths pd hasn't broken out of the 2000-6000 range for more than 30 days now. Yesterday standing at 4281. Still sticking by this prediction?
Not sure about the timing but it looks like cases are growing, so yes, I think so.
Worldwide covid cases do (or at least did until quite recently) still seem to be increasing, yet the death rate has stayed stubbornly within a range of about 2000 to 6000 (maybe 7000) deaths per day for about the last 2 months, not really looking like breaking out.
Do we think this is some kind of ceiling? Or is it suffering from under-reporting?
(Well of course it's bound to be under-reported, but is it any more so than, say, 3 months ago?)
Scott.
GoSeigen wrote:Yes, I'm finding that very curious too. To date I've not come to any conclusion about reasons but I can't deny that deaths are far lower than I expected given the rapidly increasing case numbers.
I'm glad you're watching this too; it would be good to find some solid research or figures which explain this. One point that can be made I think is that the bulk of new cases are now in developing countries, rather than developed countries as earlier. So is the lower death rate because of worse health care in those countries such that they don't have a vulnerable old-age population? IOW, perhaps developed countries have kept alive a swath of old people who have been cut down by the virus? That theory doesn't really work well for places like Japan though, which has an old population but few deaths.
GS
We integrate
continuous distributions of susceptibility or connectivity in otherwise basic epidemic models for
COVID-19 and show that as the coefficient of variation (CV) increases from 0 to 4, the herd
20 immunity threshold declines from over 60% (4, 5) to less than 10%. Measures of individual
variation are urgently needed to narrow the estimated ranges of HITs and plan accordingly.
We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in the propensity
to acquire or transmit several infectious diseases including COVID-19 and overlaid these
estimates as vertical lines in Figure 3. CV estimates are mostly comprised between 2 and 4, a
range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the HIT
5 once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune. This depends, however, on which specific
transmission traits are variable and how much the trait variants are distributed.
johnhemming wrote:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full.pdfWe integrate
continuous distributions of susceptibility or connectivity in otherwise basic epidemic models for
COVID-19 and show that as the coefficient of variation (CV) increases from 0 to 4, the herd
20 immunity threshold declines from over 60% (4, 5) to less than 10%. Measures of individual
variation are urgently needed to narrow the estimated ranges of HITs and plan accordingly.We searched the literature for estimates of individual variation in the propensity
to acquire or transmit several infectious diseases including COVID-19 and overlaid these
estimates as vertical lines in Figure 3. CV estimates are mostly comprised between 2 and 4, a
range where naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 may place populations over the HIT
5 once as few as 10-20% of its individuals are immune. This depends, however, on which specific
transmission traits are variable and how much the trait variants are distributed.
“The question is: Could New York City support another outbreak?” he said. “I don’t know, but let’s not play with that fire.”
johnhemming wrote:Actually it is Scotland that is not publishing hospital admissions. You can see the English ones up to 8th/9th July. I think the English ones are probably not complete for 9th July.
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk ... me=England
The figures on hospital admissions correlate with the hypothesis that we have essentially hit herd immunity in the urban areas.
