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Aliens?

Scientific discovery and discussion
XFool
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Aliens?

#318586

Postby XFool » June 15th, 2020, 3:35 pm

Scientists say most likely number of contactable alien civilisations is 36

The Guardian

New calculations come up with estimate for worlds capable of communicating with others

"They may not be little green men. They may not arrive in a vast spaceship. But according to new calculations there could be more than 30 intelligent civilisations in our galaxy today capable of communicating with others."

neversay
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Re: Aliens?

#318796

Postby neversay » June 16th, 2020, 12:26 pm

No, it's definitely 42.

ursaminortaur
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Re: Aliens?

#318832

Postby ursaminortaur » June 16th, 2020, 2:07 pm

XFool wrote:Scientists say most likely number of contactable alien civilisations is 36

The Guardian

New calculations come up with estimate for worlds capable of communicating with others

"They may not be little green men. They may not arrive in a vast spaceship. But according to new calculations there could be more than 30 intelligent civilisations in our galaxy today capable of communicating with others."


Unfortunately we still don't have enough knowledge of the various Drake equation parameters to really support any such conclusion.

For instance from the abstract we see that they would expect that the closest of these 36 alien civilisations would be hosted by a system around an M-dwarf star. Such systems are both extremely long-lived and common far more so than stars similar to our own sun. However it may well turn out that such stars are not capable of supporting life (or at least anything like life on earth) since any earth like planets would have to be so close to the star in order to be in the habitable zone that such planets are likely to be tidally locked. Many such stars are also known to be far more temperamental than our sun emitting flares which could well strip the planet's atmosphere or just periodically wipe out any life which did develop. Excluding such stars as an abode for life would make a large difference to the calculation.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8225

In the Strong scenario (under the strictest set of assumptions), we find there should be at least 36* civilizations within our Galaxy: this is a lower limit, based on the assumption that the average lifetime, L, of a communicating civilization is 100 yr (since we know that our own civilization has had radio communications for this time). If spread uniformly throughout the Galaxy this would imply that the nearest CETI is at most 17000* lt-yr away and most likely hosted by a low-mass M-dwarf star, likely far surpassing our ability to detect it for the foreseeable future, and making interstellar communication impossible

* I've stripped away the uncertainties from these figures since I couldn't see how to reproduce the +, - error figures as presented in the abstract. Look at the abstract to find these error-bars.

EssDeeAitch
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Re: Aliens?

#318836

Postby EssDeeAitch » June 16th, 2020, 2:37 pm

"Scientists say"......

What, all of them?

odysseus2000
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Re: Aliens?

#363969

Postby odysseus2000 » December 8th, 2020, 10:52 am

Is this guy telling the truth or is he just trying to sell his book:

https://www.jpost.com/omg/former-israel ... ady-651405

There have been so many alien sightings with some very credible witness such as the US TOP GUN pilot describing the Tic-Toc:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB8zcAttP1E

that it is becoming an overwhelming amount of circumstantial evidence for the existence of Aliens, but with no hard evidence the case may just be some kind of strange mental delusion or a reality close to becoming public knowledge.

Dunno, its getting more and more interesting, but with out hard evidence...

Regards,


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