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Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

Scientific discovery and discussion
TheMotorcycleBoy
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Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#429706

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 22nd, 2021, 4:46 pm

Hi Salvor,

Apologies for quoting a MRNA post of yours over on a different board, but after following one of the links you shared, had my mindful of a new possible avenue of "next investment" research.

SalvorHardin wrote:From what I've been told (and can remember), Genomic sequencing is one of the many tools that will revolutionise medicine through "Precision Biology". I can't be any more specific than that as it's well outside my circle of competence.

It's the combination of biological techniques, computers, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, 3D printing and others fields, to allow us to do all sorts of manipulation at the cellular level at very high speeds. Such as Moderna taking just two days to make its mRNA coronavirus vaccine.

Huge applications in personalised medicine. Even 3D printed meat.

This article of precision fermentation gives some good examples.

https://rethinkx.medium.com/precision-fermentation-what-exactly-is-it-7004eeaa798e

I'm not sure whether you went this far but I ended up following one of the rethinkx links and sacrificing a trash email address and I downloaded their RethinkXFoodandAgricultureReport.pdf.

I'm only part way through but it's fascinating. The cost implications of manufactured meat protein are awesome, and could conceiveably bankrupt livestock and crop farming.

The cost of modern foods and other precision fermentation products will be at least 50% and as much as 80% lower than the animal products they replace, which will translate into substantially lower prices and increased disposable incomes.

At current prices, revenues of the U.S. beef and dairy industry and their suppliers, which together exceed $400bn today, will decline by at least 50% by 2030, and by nearly 90% by 2035. All other livestock and commercial fisheries will follow a similar trajectory.


It could also totally shift the geopolitics of food, since any country that can site a factory can manufacture their protein.

The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50%, from 155 million tons in 2018 to 80 million tons in 2030. This means that, at current prices, feed production revenues for cattle will fall by more than 50%, from $60bn in 2018 to less than $30bn in 2030.

Major producers of animal products are at risk of a serious economic shock. Countries that produce large quantities of conventional animal products and inputs to animal farming like Brazil, where more than 21% of GDP comes from agriculture – 7% of which is from livestock alone – are particularly vulnerable.

Some interesting environmental and energy sources repercussions.

By 2030, at least half of the demand for oil from the U.S. agriculture industry – currently running at about 150 million barrels of oil equivalent a year – will disappear as all parts of the supply chain related to growing and transporting cattle are disrupted.

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from cattle will drop by 60% by 2030, on course to nearly 80% by 2035. Even when the modern food production that replaces animal agriculture is included, net emissions from the sector as a whole will decline by 45% by 2030, on course to 65% by 2035.

I did think to myself, would I be conceptually willing to eat meat grown in factories? Quite possibly, I already eat cheese and bread, which are the products of a fermentation process. However, the winning argument, I guess will be price, especially once vegetarians create a big enough demand for this kind of stuff (e.g. in KFC, Burger King etc.) and when their carnivorous friends try a meatful, and realise "that tastes pretty good - and it's half the price!"

must get back to the article,
Matt

TheMotorcycleBoy
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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#429969

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 23rd, 2021, 4:39 pm

Image

The image and accompanying documentation by googling "rethinkxfoodandagriculturereport.pdf tonyseba"

Alternatively click the link below

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... 7GDjt1g5uR

Matt

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#431690

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » July 31st, 2021, 2:54 pm

I'm struggling here really knowing how far to take this thread, and my thoughts into areas which could be rich in investment opportunities. My initial thoughts were rooted in trying to figure out why Cathie Wood is bullish on "genome sequencing" in her ARKK innovation fund.

Since then my brain has been a little random. I've done a fair bit of background reading on genes/genome/chromosome/DNA, and off at a slight tangent have learnt a lot about "alternative meat" sources, which split as follows: plant-based, cell-based and precision fermentation. Several largish firms e.g. Unilever (ULVR) and Tyson (TSN:NYSE) which have made investments into some of these areas. However I'm not sure about whether a food company is such a strong growth investment. I ran the numbers of 6 yrs of Tysons ARs and was dismayed, their KPIs weren't particularly exciting, despite them looking very cheap, and probably a "value share" for some. This is a shame, given their interest in the alternative food market.

I'm more of the view that firms planning to run large scale "protein factories", or biotech/software firms which sell applications, which produce the code/instructions required to run food producing machines, will be the better stories to follow.

Most of my (very limited) company specific searching so far, is only producing medicine based gene/tech firms so far e.g.

https://www.deepgenomics.com/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker- ... 1627385401

I'm guessing the applications in food are still somewhat distant in time, and not taken particularly seriously (?). However my bets would be that backing the food industry e.g. protein manufacturer, or RecipeAsAService type applications will be the killer, as they will the consumer and mass markets behind them.

Matt

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#431691

Postby 88V8 » July 31st, 2021, 3:36 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:>...the consumer and mass markets behind them.

Yes, it's likely to be a growth area.
I am sure there will be a market for food, especially ingredients rather than the finished article, produced however from whatever.
Even the finished article, meat that's not meat etc.
So long as it's cheap, tastes OK and is attractively packaged.

One need only read the labels on existing produce to realise that most consumers don't care.... we had a Gressingham duck in plum sauce last night, it starred duck and plum, but there was a whole chorus of... other stuff. Fortunately we rarely eat these ready to heats, and once in a while won't kill us.

Of course there will hold-outs in the market who don't want to be fed god-knows-what and insist on the real thing, the sort of people who go to farmers' markets and the fresh meat counter, but eventually they will be in a minority.

However, wearing my environmental hat, if that means the UK can breed all its own 'real' meat and import nothing, and stop overfishing, well hooray.

Anyway, yes, investment opportunities.
And potential losers in mainstream agriculture, like the small farmer whose fields surround our cottage.

But you're a brave and clever man if you know which horses to back. As you say, it's not going to supercharge Unilever or Premier Foods. I wonder if Tech-based ITs will zero in on it.

Thankyou for the heads up.

V8

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#433236

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 8th, 2021, 11:20 am

Have just watched this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSMARiYE7Jo

is quite a good breakdown of the food industry+fermentation techniques. Quite a good blend of science and business.

Several examples of some of the firms in this race (I may follow up Ginkgo Bioworks and Myco Technology at some stage) are mentioned.

Matt

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#433347

Postby GrahamPlatt » August 8th, 2021, 9:10 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/j ... obal-en-GB

“In 1931, Winston Churchill proclaimed that technology would one day allow humans to “escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium”.

Now that’s something I didn’t know: Far-sighted (like his views on Europe).

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#434035

Postby 88V8 » August 11th, 2021, 12:49 pm

One of the companies Tyson has a steak in is Future Meat https://future-meat.com/ which afaik hasn't as yet sold any product.
They've raised all their capital so far via investment partners... Tyson, Muller, ADM and others, so any chance for retail to get involved is at second-hand.
Some commentary here https://newatlas.com/science/worlds-first-industrial-lab-grown-meat-facility-israel/?itm_source=newatlas&itm_medium=article-body
The company will put this technique to the test on its largest scale yet, cutting the ribbon on its new cultured meat facility in the Israeli city of Rehovot. The factory will have the capacity to produce 1,100 lb of cultured chicken, pork and lamb each day, which is equivalent to around 5,000 burgers, and the company says beef products are on the way.

As you can see from the comments at the foot there are divergent views about its merit.
Animals collect a wide variety of trace elements in their widespread browsing. I'd be interested to see a list of ''nutrients'' that are inserted into fake meat, to compare the claimed nutritional values.

Perhaps there will be some interesting IPOs in the coming year or so.

V8

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#434079

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 11th, 2021, 2:27 pm

88V8 wrote:One of the companies Tyson has a steak in is Future Meat https://future-meat.com/ which afaik hasn't as yet sold any product.
They've raised all their capital so far via investment partners... Tyson, Muller, ADM and others, so any chance for retail to get involved is at second-hand.
Some commentary here https://newatlas.com/science/worlds-first-industrial-lab-grown-meat-facility-israel/?itm_source=newatlas&itm_medium=article-body
The company will put this technique to the test on its largest scale yet, cutting the ribbon on its new cultured meat facility in the Israeli city of Rehovot. The factory will have the capacity to produce 1,100 lb of cultured chicken, pork and lamb each day, which is equivalent to around 5,000 burgers, and the company says beef products are on the way.

As you can see from the comments at the foot there are divergent views about its merit.
Animals collect a wide variety of trace elements in their widespread browsing. I'd be interested to see a list of ''nutrients'' that are inserted into fake meat, to compare the claimed nutritional values.

Perhaps there will be some interesting IPOs in the coming year or so.

V8

Indeed Tyson are backing several horses in the race.

https://www.tysonfoods.com/innovation/f ... n-ventures

OOI I ran the numbers on them a few weeks back.



growth over 5 years



they are certainly not a bad firm. But fairly low OM and ROCE. Still fairly cheap, despite a big pop on release of Q2 earnings recently.

Matt

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#434080

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 11th, 2021, 2:30 pm

The slight drawback of "lab-grown" i.e. "cellbased" meat offerings, from a vegans perspective (my 19 yr old!!) is that they are still using the animal to a certain extent.

That's why I'm more interested in finding precision fermentation offerings.

Matt

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Re: Food science, precision fermentation, gene sequencing

#434087

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » August 11th, 2021, 2:46 pm

Not wanting to go too far OT. But a big problem I saw with Tyson is that their dividend growth far outstrips EPS and FCF growth. That's a pretty bad thing in my book.

Matt


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