The Lemon Fool

Chance of Asteroid hitting London in 10 months, put at 1 in 11 million:

https://www.gbnews.com/news/asteroid-st ... sa-warning

This astroid was seen a while ago and then lost in the suns glare and there could be others.

Nice video by Angry Astronuaght on the asteroid what the effect would be:

https://youtu.be/D4mbf9qxcDQ?si=eNXJdvgXueKLvExY

The odds are comparable to the odds of winning the lottery.

Are you feeling lucky?

Regards,

Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

kiloran wrote:Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

My condolences

Folk might start moving North though - perhaps time to put the wall back up?

servodude wrote:

kiloran wrote:Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

My condolences

Folk might start moving North though - perhaps time to put the wall back up?

Yes, with this alleged scourge of global warming, Scotland could soon become a balmy garden spot. Along with Lapland. Greenland, Northern Canada, Siberia and other tundric wastelands.

Although some might aver that the odds of being hit by an asteroid are comparable to the odds of a Scotsman buying a round of drinks.

lootman wrote:Yes, with this alleged scourge of global warming, Scotland could soon become a balmy garden spot.

It's already a balmy garden spot, we've had palm trees growing in the far northwest of Scotland for as long as I can remember

--kiloran

I believe the West Coast of Scotland is actually classed as 'rainforest' - without the heat and the monkeys obvs.

Anyway, 'mon the asteroid!

Asteroid hits earth. Maybe kicks a few slumbering volcanoes into life. Dust cloud blocks out the sunlight for five or ten years, and everybody starves, unless they don't mind surviving on rotting roots. Or am I missing something?

BJ

bungeejumper wrote:Asteroid hits earth. Maybe kicks a few slumbering volcanoes into life. Dust cloud blocks out the sunlight for five or ten years, and everybody starves, unless they don't mind surviving on rotting roots. Or am I missing something?

BJ

I had neeps this evening; they were fine

servodude wrote:[I had neeps this evening; they were fine

It's all right for you, you're on the other end of the planet. Although Indonesia could be a bigger seismic worry than London, I suppose?

BJ

kiloran wrote:Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

It will be when all the bloody Londoners move there.

Why do you think we left Devon?

bungeejumper wrote:Asteroid hits earth. Maybe kicks a few slumbering volcanoes into life. Dust cloud blocks out the sunlight for five or ten years, and everybody starves, unless they don't mind surviving on rotting roots. Or am I missing something?

BJ

Us Scottish people will eat anything. None of yer poncy avocados or keenwa here matey.

Nope, for brekkie its the most indeible oats in cold water based delight (with a pinch of salt for seasoning). For lunch, we generally gnaw on a cows thighbone and for dinner it's root veg boiled to within an inch of its life and accompanyed by packaged up animal entrails (also thoroughly boiled). And for pudding, its anything with a healthy coating of deep fried batter. Then a pint and a fag during the after dinner speeches.

bungeejumper wrote:

servodude wrote:[I had neeps this evening; they were fine

It's all right for you, you're on the other end of the planet. Although Indonesia could be a bigger seismic worry than London, I suppose?

BJ

New Zealand apparently has a Ring of Fire

Tedx wrote:New Zealand apparently has a Ring of Fire

So did I, the night after I bought the wrong grade of Indaloo. The eruptions lasted for days.

BJ

odysseus2000 wrote:Chance of Asteroid hitting London in 10 months, put at 1 in 11 million:

https://www.gbnews.com/news/asteroid-st ... sa-warning

This astroid was seen a while ago and then lost in the suns glare and there could be others.

Nice video by Angry Astronuaght on the asteroid what the effect would be:

https://youtu.be/D4mbf9qxcDQ?si=eNXJdvgXueKLvExY

The odds are comparable to the odds of winning the lottery.

Are you feeling lucky?

Regards,

As far as I can see from those reports, they don't know the orbit well enough to know if it will hit Earth , hence the 1 in 11 million probability of hitting Earth, let alone whether it will hit London.
Even if the timing is such that it hits the face of the Earth containing the UK and London the the radius of the asteroid is just 170m so its chances of hitting London rather than some other part of the Earth is probably going to reduce that probability to billions to 1 ( and its small size would mean that it would only do damage in the region it hit).

kiloran wrote:Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

1 in 11 million chance of hitting London means there is a 10.99999999 million in 11 Million chance that its going to land somewhere else, i.e. Glasgow

Lanark wrote:

kiloran wrote:Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

1 in 11 million chance of hitting London means there is a 10.99999999 million in 11 Million chance that its going to land somewhere else, i.e. Glasgow

I doubt we'd be able to tell if has hit Glasgow

Tedx wrote:

Lanark wrote:1 in 11 million chance of hitting London means there is a 10.99999999 million in 11 Million chance that its going to land somewhere else, i.e. Glasgow

I doubt we'd be able to tell if has hit Glasgow

I'm sure there'd be footage of some baggage handler trying to drag it out the crater and kick it in the nuts

Lanark wrote:

kiloran wrote:Not my problem, I live near Glasgow

--kiloran

1 in 11 million chance of hitting London means there is a 10.99999999 million in 11 Million chance that its going to land somewhere else, i.e. Glasgow

It is most likely going to miss Earth altogether, but if it does hit the earth it is big enough to cause serious damage to a city below its path from an air burst if it breaks up in the atmosphere or a land fall of significant mass, or a Tsunami if it hits a ocean & enough gets down to sea level & below.

Angry Astronaught in the video I linked gives estimates of damage for this asteroid & for a comet, with the latter being civilisation ending.

The main point is that talk of planetary defense is not hyperbola. There are thinks in orbit around the sun that can hit us & the trajectories are hard to calculate if the objects mass is changing due to volcanoes, boil off from a comet etc.

Some money is going into improved sensors from Lagrange point stationed satellites, but we as a species do need to develop contingency defense in case something is spotted on a collision course.

In principle with Starship, terrestrial mirrors up to about 5 m diameter can be put into orbit & instrumented to improve early warning capabilities at low cost.

Regards,