The Lemon Fool

westmoreland9 wrote:

gbjbaanb wrote:

JuanDB wrote:I’ve no intention to sell however I’m afraid the dividend horse has bolted. Yield currently a mighty 0%

Its a REIT, the yield cannot be 0% as they have to pay out 90% as PIDs to be a REIT. They may fiddle this, they may suspend it a bit like the Q4 dividend payment but those are temporary. In a year's time things will be different. That's what you're investing for, not next week.

they are currently forecasting rents down about 35%. their annual revenue is £148m, of which about £120m is rent. so forecast only collecting £83m (assuming the other £28m is fully collected). their operating costs and debt interest come to about £100m.

so that comes to a loss of £17m - so there's nothing to distribute. or if they do distribute anything, it'll just be funded from debt or disposals, so not really 'income'.

I make that a profit of £6m.

65% of £120mio is £78m plus the other £28m, less the £100m costs/interest.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/newriver- ... 00054446B/

Trading Update.

Interesting news on disposals at 3% discount to March 2020 NPV. Of course we don't know how representative these disposals are, and what the "tail" might look like.

Also interesting the Residential Portfolio news with an increase allocation to residential, and reduction in retail, in the latest planning approval in Burgess Hill. Recognition of the change in demand, and practical change of use, that is likely to be seen across society. The "death of retail" doesn't directly translate to the going out of business of Commercial Landlords.

Reading the entire RNS, it's quite positive and upbeat.

The shares look oversold, to me. Tempted to top up.

MDW1954

Latest trading update.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/newriver- ... 00033868M/

Sales continuing at an even greater discount to the March 2020 valuations, though I doubt that's a surprise.

Not one I own, but it seems some here do, so for their benefit.

Another trading update, which has prompted a share price rise this am. Big news: IPO of the Hawthorn community pubs business, and a sharper focus on what they call 'resilient retail'.

https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/newriver_retail_ltd/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=1683&newsid=1468935

MDW1954

Hmmm - one problem (for me) is that the pub side of things is what makes NRR so attractive. Whilst it will be nice to have the proceeds I would rather keep the long term potential within NRR or spin off and grant existing shareholders shares in the new entity.

Laughton wrote:Hmmm - one problem (for me) is that the pub side of things is what makes NRR so attractive. Whilst it will be nice to have the proceeds I would rather keep the long term potential within NRR or spin off and grant existing shareholders shares in the new entity.

That's a solution, not a problem, surely.

They will IPO the business you are interested in, such that you can invest in the parts you are solely attracted to. You won't have the proceeds, and keep that long term potential. Plus you can divest your investment of the parts that don't attract you.

Laughton wrote:Hmmm - one problem (for me) is that the pub side of things is what makes NRR so attractive. Whilst it will be nice to have the proceeds I would rather keep the long term potential within NRR or spin off and grant existing shareholders shares in the new entity.

You won't (directly) get the proceeds. NRR proposes investing them in what it calls "resilient retail".

I can see me being interested in the pubs IPO, though.

MDW1954

Not quite the outcome that I'd been expecting. The 674 pubs have been sold in a trade sale, with the proceeds used to pay down debt, and re-set the LTV at a lower level:

https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-15072165-7A1KL2CB8UU3KGG9M7RK8Q8I0L

MDW1954

MDW1954 wrote:Not quite the outcome that I'd been expecting. The 674 pubs have been sold in a trade sale, with the proceeds used to pay down debt, and re-set the LTV at a lower level:

https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-15072165-7A1KL2CB8UU3KGG9M7RK8Q8I0L

MDW1954

https://www.investegate.co.uk/newriver- ... 00094131G/

Shame Admiral Taverns isn't listed.

I bought NRR at 266p (thankfully as part of a wider property portfolio)

After monumental losses at 70p I'm wondering if it's time to throw good money after bad .... do you expect an upside from here given their pub sell off and move towards self titled "resilient" retail.