The Lemon Fool

richfool wrote:I can't say I see any upside to property REIT's until interest rates have reached the top and rate cuts are visible.

I hold two REITs and admit I am conflicted about what to do. We know that interest rates increasing will reduce the EPRA NAV because the discount rate used in the DCF calculation used for determining NAV also rises. However, in a more normal world, the Tangible NAV of a company is calculated by the amount it could raise if it were to stop trading, sell off all its assets, pay off the debt, and return what is left to shareholders. I can't help feeling that there is a mismatch here i.e. just because the DCF calculated NAV is lower, it doesn't mean that a real-world property transaction would take place at that price, and in all likelihood it would take place at a higher price.

Not saying I have any answers, but REITs are a trivially small amount of my portfolio, so happy to hold what I have for now on the basis that "real" NAVs are much higher.

All the best, Si

Richfool - "I can't say I see any upside to property REIT's until interest rates have reached the top and rate cuts are visible."

Remember the Market looks ahead. Currently may look wrong to have held onto a few; but they will come good; and in the meantime you'll be enjoying great yields. SREI are up 5% on my last post, but still yielding 7.9%. EBOX haven't moved and remain very attractively priced.

I have been lucky twice recently with CSH and CTPT both getting a bid.
Mostly just limiting damage as we exited ZIRP, but nonetheless welcome.
CSH was cashed but I still have the CTPT which will morph into some LMP.

So, do I hold the LMP or take a punt elsewhere on another bid?
On the principle that LMP is a bit chunky to be taken out.

Any views, anyone in a similar boat?

W.

Wuffle wrote:I have been lucky twice recently with CSH and CTPT both getting a bid.
Mostly just limiting damage as we exited ZIRP, but nonetheless welcome.
CSH was cashed but I still have the CTPT which will morph into some LMP.

So, do I hold the LMP or take a punt elsewhere on another bid?
On the principle that LMP is a bit chunky to be taken out.

Any views, anyone in a similar boat?

W.

Are you a manager with abrdn?

Dod

Sadly not.
Rather than chosing a career in an industry that clearly take a decent cut and get away with it regardless, I chose the industry who do 'free delivery'.

Funny stories about drivers putting vehicles in canals notwithstanding, this was a mistake.

W.

Wuffle - "So, do I hold the LMP or take a punt elsewhere on another bid?
On the principle that LMP is a bit chunky to be taken out."

Well, IMO LMP a tad over-valued versus peers. So better to sell and move on.

Even though we've seen a great rally these past 2-3days, I would still go for the ones I mentioned above.

Current Best Value: EBOX @ 56.70p

SKYSHIP wrote:Wuffle - "So, do I hold the LMP or take a punt elsewhere on another bid?
On the principle that LMP is a bit chunky to be taken out."

Well, IMO LMP a tad over-valued versus peers. So better to sell and move on.

Even though we've seen a great rally these past 2-3days, I would still go for the ones I mentioned above.

Current Best Value: EBOX @ 56.70p

Doubled my position last week at 51p.

Still healthily underwater on the holding though!

SKYSHIP wrote:Wuffle - "So, do I hold the LMP or take a punt elsewhere on another bid?
On the principle that LMP is a bit chunky to be taken out."

Well, IMO LMP a tad over-valued versus peers. So better to sell and move on.

Even though we've seen a great rally these past 2-3days, I would still go for the ones I mentioned above.

Current Best Value: EBOX @ 56.70p

EBOX - Robert Orr. I thought I recognised the name: ex JLL.

I watched the TRY AGM yesterday, they are also in the process of becoming LMP holders and were very complimentary about the quality of the management.

As an existing LMP investor, almost from day one, I am excited about the opportunity, synergy, this deal provides. Probably why they were willing to provide such a full price. Good management and good assets gives a positive outlook.

Well, LMP listed in Nov'07; and in the intervening 15.5yrs they sp has compounded by 3.9%pa. Add in the income yield averaging 4.5% and you've achieved a reasonable overall return of c8.4%pa.

Not great but OK for a BUY & HOLD investor.

Personally I do far better by buying/selling/moving on/returning - ie playing the trends. Takes time, quite a bit of work - but hey, I'm retired, so I've got the time, so manage an average annual return of 15% - though that may reduce slightly this year as currently up only 1% YTD.

That said, a core average banker of 8.4%pa has its merits - for some anyway!