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When should we get greedy?

Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483071

Postby Investor » February 27th, 2022, 3:10 am

GoSeigen wrote:
I've been steadily buying SEP S&P straddles over the past month and now have an uncomfortably large position. If the S&P goes nowhere I'm going to make painful losses on these positions with strikes ranging from 4275 to 4575.

Also been slowly closing some of my leveraged long FTSE stock positions, using the profit to buy stuff that has fallen hard. I think this bull market still has legs so happy to stay bullish.


GS



I'm in a similar boat. I bought heavily in late January thinking the markets didn't have much further to fall. Of course, they have. So I've suffered enormous losses.

Therefore, I'd urge people to be careful. Statements like "buy when there's blood on the streets" sound very machismo - and, dare I say it, Putinesque - but the reality is that we're all talking about our cold hard cash and we shouldn't be taking significant risks (as I stupidly did). If one is a fan of these mantras, then another one we all know is "never try to catch a falling knife".

The situation will be bearish for quite a while to come. To take just one example, locking Russian banks out of the global SWIFT system, as has just been announced in the last few hours, is going to mean energy prices will shoot up even higher, the costs of running many businesses will go up yet further, those businesses will lose income in Russia if they were trading in or with that country, and we will suffer even higher inflation. I hate to say it, but all this is likely to detrimental to the share prices of a fair few of the businesses we're invested into.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483073

Postby GoSeigen » February 27th, 2022, 7:51 am

Investor wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
I've been steadily buying SEP S&P straddles over the past month and now have an uncomfortably large position. If the S&P goes nowhere I'm going to make painful losses on these positions with strikes ranging from 4275 to 4575.

Also been slowly closing some of my leveraged long FTSE stock positions, using the profit to buy stuff that has fallen hard. I think this bull market still has legs so happy to stay bullish.


GS



I'm in a similar boat. I bought heavily in late January thinking the markets didn't have much further to fall. Of course, they have. So I've suffered enormous losses.

That's unfortunate but as you can see from the above, I don't think it's a mistake in the medium term (depending what you bought). I wouldn't say I'm in the same position though. My heavy buying is of ATM call and put options: these will benefit from sustained rises or falls through to September; if we get both then even better. My problem is if the markets go nowhere.
Therefore, I'd urge people to be careful. Statements like "buy when there's blood on the streets" sound very machismo - and, dare I say it, Putinesque - but the reality is that we're all talking about our cold hard cash and we shouldn't be taking significant risks (as I stupidly did). If one is a fan of these mantras, then another one we all know is "never try to catch a falling knife".

I've also been tactically buying Russian stocks which are down some 75% from last year's peaks. Falling knife of course, but I think at these values they are a reasonable buy for the medium to long term. Even if they fall much further my exposure is low enough not to cause problems.

The situation will be bearish for quite a while to come. To take just one example, locking Russian banks out of the global SWIFT system, as has just been announced in the last few hours, is going to mean energy prices will shoot up even higher, the costs of running many businesses will go up yet further, those businesses will lose income in Russia if they were trading in or with that country, and we will suffer even higher inflation. I hate to say it, but all this is likely to detrimental to the share prices of a fair few of the businesses we're invested into.


One must recall that higher prices mean businesses have pricing power which is short-term bullish for equities. The problem to beware of is debt market yields catching up with the new inflation levels. That would be profoundly negative for shares both because of the rising costs of company debt but also because of their consequent poor value relative to bonds and end-of-business-cycle effects.

GS

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483118

Postby CryptoPlankton » February 27th, 2022, 11:51 am

GoSeigen wrote:I've also been tactically buying Russian stocks which are down some 75% from last year's peaks. Falling knife of course, but I think at these values they are a reasonable buy for the medium to long term. Even if they fall much further my exposure is low enough not to cause problems.

I can understand the rationale behind this move, and I'm not generally an investor with too many ethical scruples, but this wouldn't sit very well with me at the moment. I did identify JPM Russian Securities IT as a potentially good long term bet last week, but I couldn't begin to bring myself to try to profit from the current situation. Although totally inconsequential in impact relative to the sanctions being imposed, such an investment would have felt like a betrayal. But good luck with your purchases - hopefully, the country will come to its senses, remove their crackpot leader, and you will profit sooner rather than later.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483126

Postby BT63 » February 27th, 2022, 12:12 pm

I'm not feeling greedy at the moment. I'm not feeling fearful, either.
I'm happy to just sit and watch.

In the medium term I think the USA in particular has some serious monetary/inflation issues to deal with and only bad choices remain for how to deal with it. This will cause a heavy drag on the US which could turn the USA into a bit of an international joke over the next few years.

I'm happy to avoid the USA for a few years and am neutral on most other markets.

I haven't made any significant changes to my investments since I reported in the portfolio review section in the last week of December.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483256

Postby GoSeigen » February 28th, 2022, 7:41 am

CryptoPlankton wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I've also been tactically buying Russian stocks which are down some 75% from last year's peaks. Falling knife of course, but I think at these values they are a reasonable buy for the medium to long term. Even if they fall much further my exposure is low enough not to cause problems.

I can understand the rationale behind this move, and I'm not generally an investor with too many ethical scruples, but this wouldn't sit very well with me at the moment. I did identify JPM Russian Securities IT as a potentially good long term bet last week, but I couldn't begin to bring myself to try to profit from the current situation. Although totally inconsequential in impact relative to the sanctions being imposed, such an investment would have felt like a betrayal. But good luck with your purchases - hopefully, the country will come to its senses, remove their crackpot leader, and you will profit sooner rather than later.


Sorry this makes no sense at all. I already sold a lot of my Russian holdings before the current situation. It had no effect whatsoever on Putin’s calculations. He’s already done the deed now and as you yourself speculate the country may come to its senses in the foreseeable future. Is that not what I am investing in? Personally I try never to invest looking backwards, only forwards.

Also, would you rather investors buy when the price is high, giving a high valuation to these “unethical” assets or when the price is low, giving them a low valuation? Because as you know it’s impossible not to be invested.

GS

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483275

Postby CryptoPlankton » February 28th, 2022, 9:18 am

GoSeigen wrote:
CryptoPlankton wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I've also been tactically buying Russian stocks which are down some 75% from last year's peaks. Falling knife of course, but I think at these values they are a reasonable buy for the medium to long term. Even if they fall much further my exposure is low enough not to cause problems.

I can understand the rationale behind this move, and I'm not generally an investor with too many ethical scruples, but this wouldn't sit very well with me at the moment. I did identify JPM Russian Securities IT as a potentially good long term bet last week, but I couldn't begin to bring myself to try to profit from the current situation. Although totally inconsequential in impact relative to the sanctions being imposed, such an investment would have felt like a betrayal. But good luck with your purchases - hopefully, the country will come to its senses, remove their crackpot leader, and you will profit sooner rather than later.


Sorry this makes no sense at all. I already sold a lot of my Russian holdings before the current situation. It had no effect whatsoever on Putin’s calculations. He’s already done the deed now and as you yourself speculate the country may come to its senses in the foreseeable future. Is that not what I am investing in? Personally I try never to invest looking backwards, only forwards.

Also, would you rather investors buy when the price is high, giving a high valuation to these “unethical” assets or when the price is low, giving them a low valuation? Because as you know it’s impossible not to be invested.

GS

Well, it makes sense to me and now, so it seems, BP, who have also apparently decided it is possible "not to be invested" (I have to admit I don't fully understand what you mean there). Anyway, I am not being judgemental and if you are comfortable with it, as I say, I wish you success.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483282

Postby Dod101 » February 28th, 2022, 9:37 am

BT63 wrote:I'm not feeling greedy at the moment. I'm not feeling fearful, either.
I'm happy to just sit and watch.

In the medium term I think the USA in particular has some serious monetary/inflation issues to deal with and only bad choices remain for how to deal with it. This will cause a heavy drag on the US which could turn the USA into a bit of an international joke over the next few years.

I'm happy to avoid the USA for a few years and am neutral on most other markets.

I haven't made any significant changes to my investments since I reported in the portfolio review section in the last week of December.


My only move since 1 January has been this morning to sell B G China Growth and with the proceeds (modest) bought J P Morgan Global Growth and Income. I will now go back to sleep as far as my investments are concerned.

Unless you are a gambler now is certainly not the time to be greedy. I am certainly not happy in any sense but have no option but to sit and watch developments.

Dod

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483296

Postby 77ss » February 28th, 2022, 10:25 am

Dod101 wrote:......

My only move since 1 January has been this morning to sell B G China Growth and with the proceeds (modest) bought J P Morgan Global Growth and Income. I will now go back to sleep as far as my investments are concerned.

Unless you are a gambler now is certainly not the time to be greedy. I am certainly not happy in any sense but have no option but to sit and watch developments.

Dod


My feelings too. Sitting tight seems to be a pretty rational option.

It has been a tumultuous 2 years - and maybe we are heading for a third, but over the w/e I had a look at how my overall holdings had done.

From a pre-Covid high in Feb 2020 to Friday's low, I am up - with no new money other than unspent dividends. As the saying goes 'don't panic'!

I can't say that the 31% fall in my holdings at the Covid bottom was comfortable, and we don't know how much further the current fall has to go, but I have no confidence in my ability to pick losers to sell and winners to buy.

Good luck with JGGI. I bought at the end of 2020 and have been pretty happy with it - so far, it is living up to its name.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483306

Postby Dod101 » February 28th, 2022, 10:43 am

77ss wrote:
Dod101 wrote:......

My only move since 1 January has been this morning to sell B G China Growth and with the proceeds (modest) bought J P Morgan Global Growth and Income. I will now go back to sleep as far as my investments are concerned.

Unless you are a gambler now is certainly not the time to be greedy. I am certainly not happy in any sense but have no option but to sit and watch developments.

Dod


My feelings too. Sitting tight seems to be a pretty rational option.

It has been a tumultuous 2 years - and maybe we are heading for a third, but over the w/e I had a look at how my overall holdings had done.

From a pre-Covid high in Feb 2020 to Friday's low, I am up - with no new money other than unspent dividends. As the saying goes 'don't panic'!

I can't say that the 31% fall in my holdings at the Covid bottom was comfortable, and we don't know how much further the current fall has to go, but I have no confidence in my ability to pick losers to sell and winners to buy.

Good luck with JGGI. I bought at the end of 2020 and have been pretty happy with it - so far, it is living up to its name.


Thanks. We need some positive comments at the moment. I am or at least was until this morning up from the pre Covid high as well, although my values are heading the wrong way at the moment. Like everyone else I have no idea where it is heading as there is, it is trite to say, so much uncertainty.

I had no holdings with JP Morgan and I like the look of the JGGI portfolio and that was my rationale. Nothing magical. I should not have bought BG China Growth but fell for their proposition. I do not like single country funds and knew that at the time so thought it best to get out even at a loss. I used to wait for a recovery but that is a mug's game.

Dod

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483356

Postby BT63 » February 28th, 2022, 2:08 pm

Dod101 wrote:......Thanks. We need some positive comments at the moment....


If you need positive comments, you have probably taken on too much risk in your portfolio and should consider adding investments to counterbalance the risks.

Regardless of Ukraine, I think there will be a lot of financial volatility ahead as the era of easy money has now turned into an era of inflation and bubbles, creating an almost impossible dilemma for central banks.
It will be almost impossible to control inflation without recession and without stock markets going into a bear market. The US having injected so much easy money and with the worst inflation problem looks likely to be among the worst affected (excluding Ukraine effects on Europe which can't be quantified at this time).

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483365

Postby GoSeigen » February 28th, 2022, 2:44 pm

CryptoPlankton wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
CryptoPlankton wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:I've also been tactically buying Russian stocks which are down some 75% from last year's peaks. Falling knife of course, but I think at these values they are a reasonable buy for the medium to long term. Even if they fall much further my exposure is low enough not to cause problems.

I can understand the rationale behind this move, and I'm not generally an investor with too many ethical scruples, but this wouldn't sit very well with me at the moment. I did identify JPM Russian Securities IT as a potentially good long term bet last week, but I couldn't begin to bring myself to try to profit from the current situation. Although totally inconsequential in impact relative to the sanctions being imposed, such an investment would have felt like a betrayal. But good luck with your purchases - hopefully, the country will come to its senses, remove their crackpot leader, and you will profit sooner rather than later.


Sorry this makes no sense at all. I already sold a lot of my Russian holdings before the current situation. It had no effect whatsoever on Putin’s calculations. He’s already done the deed now and as you yourself speculate the country may come to its senses in the foreseeable future. Is that not what I am investing in? Personally I try never to invest looking backwards, only forwards.

Also, would you rather investors buy when the price is high, giving a high valuation to these “unethical” assets or when the price is low, giving them a low valuation? Because as you know it’s impossible not to be invested.

GS

Well, it makes sense to me and now, so it seems, BP, who have also apparently decided it is possible "not to be invested" (I have to admit I don't fully understand what you mean there). Anyway, I am not being judgemental and if you are comfortable with it, as I say, I wish you success.


Well, BP can not be invested but BP didn't sell their shares to fairies. Someone is still holding them. Every single share issued is still held by someone no matter how many have been sold. That is what I mean when I say it is impossible not to be invested. The question is who holds the shares and at what price.

However this is all OT for this thread. Please let's get back to the issue of timing purchases and what to do when the market is panicking.

GS

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483375

Postby CryptoPlankton » February 28th, 2022, 4:26 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Well, BP can not be invested but BP didn't sell their shares to fairies. Someone is still holding them. Every single share issued is still held by someone no matter how many have been sold. That is what I mean when I say it is impossible not to be invested.


Ah, no wonder I was confused (let's not go into the grammar!). Obviously the shares have to be "invested in" by someone, but if you don't see the reasons behind BP's divestment, and my choice not to be an investor, then it really matters not - carry on...

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483387

Postby Bouleversee » February 28th, 2022, 5:05 pm

GoSeigen said: "
Well, BP can not be invested but BP didn't sell their shares to fairies. Someone is still holding them. Every single share issued is still held by someone no matter how many have been sold. That is what I mean when I say it is impossible not to be invested. The question is who holds the shares and at what price."

I thought I had read that BP hadn't actually sold their shares as yet and that they might just have to write them off. Not sure about the mechanics of that if nobody wants to buy them, other than Rosneft (or even Putin) agreeing to take them off BP's hands for zilch, creating a $14bn loss (the carrying value apparently) for BP. Maybe they would have to gift the shares to Rosneft or whoever to create the loss which would leave a bitter taste in many mouths.

Edit: an article in Citywire says the loss may be up to $25bn.
https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news ... +Afternoon

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483392

Postby EthicsGradient » February 28th, 2022, 5:35 pm

As far as investing in Russia goes, you're taking a big risk at the moment:

The European subsidiary of Russia's biggest bank was on the brink of collapse as savers rushed to withdraw their deposits. Economists warned that the Russian economy could shrink by 5%.

The ruble lost about 20% of its value to trade at 100 to the dollar at 6 a.m. ET after earlier plummeting as much as 40%. The start of trading on the Russian stock market was delayed, and then canceled entirely, according to a statement from the country's central bank.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/busi ... index.html

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483393

Postby Dod101 » February 28th, 2022, 5:35 pm

BT63 wrote:
Dod101 wrote:......Thanks. We need some positive comments at the moment....


If you need positive comments, you have probably taken on too much risk in your portfolio and should consider adding investments to counterbalance the risks.

Regardless of Ukraine, I think there will be a lot of financial volatility ahead as the era of easy money has now turned into an era of inflation and bubbles, creating an almost impossible dilemma for central banks.
It will be almost impossible to control inflation without recession and without stock markets going into a bear market. The US having injected so much easy money and with the worst inflation problem looks likely to be among the worst affected (excluding Ukraine effects on Europe which can't be quantified at this time).


Thanks although I was referring to positive comments not particularly in relation to my investments but more generally. See for instance some of the comments on the Macro and Global Topics Forum and the comments in particular headed Russia as a |Lehman/LTCM Moment today. I need no positive comments on my investments, although they are always pleasing to have. My investments will stand or fall by my own judgement.

Dod

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483398

Postby GoSeigen » February 28th, 2022, 6:03 pm

EthicsGradient wrote:As far as investing in Russia goes, you're taking a big risk at the moment:

The European subsidiary of Russia's biggest bank was on the brink of collapse as savers rushed to withdraw their deposits. Economists warned that the Russian economy could shrink by 5%.

The ruble lost about 20% of its value to trade at 100 to the dollar at 6 a.m. ET after earlier plummeting as much as 40%. The start of trading on the Russian stock market was delayed, and then canceled entirely, according to a statement from the country's central bank.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28/busi ... index.html


1. Agree, but I like risk. When everyone is terrified that's a good time to be buying.
2. I step into my risky purchases, I don't rush. So far new Russian exposure is <1% of portfolio value. If I lose it all I'm not going to have a sleepless night. But you have to start somewhere.

GS

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483660

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » March 2nd, 2022, 6:22 am

Investor wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:
I've been steadily buying SEP S&P straddles over the past month and now have an uncomfortably large position. If the S&P goes nowhere I'm going to make painful losses on these positions with strikes ranging from 4275 to 4575.

Also been slowly closing some of my leveraged long FTSE stock positions, using the profit to buy stuff that has fallen hard. I think this bull market still has legs so happy to stay bullish.


GS



I'm in a similar boat. I bought heavily in late January thinking the markets didn't have much further to fall. Of course, they have. So I've suffered enormous losses.

Must admit that I overspent in January too. I'm not beating myself up for it, as I don't have a crystal ball.

I still have some cash, and being as me and my wife are fully employed, am continuing to buy dips, though with not as much ammo as I'd have liked.

Yes IMHO things are going to continue to get worse. I don't see the war in Ukraine ending nicely, and the West will be paying for it for possibly years. Easy to picture a protracted guerilla warfare, like the Soviet-Afghan war which took almost a decade before USSR was forced to withdraw - bankrupt. Europe and the US will flood the area with money and arms, and eventually Russia will collapse. Our fuel bills will rocket.

The outliers being 1) Putin (and hopefully Lukashenka) ousted in a coup and 2) Putin nukes us all.

Matt

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483791

Postby TheMotorcycleBoy » March 2nd, 2022, 12:38 pm

Bouleversee wrote:GoSeigen said: "
Well, BP can not be invested but BP didn't sell their shares to fairies. Someone is still holding them. Every single share issued is still held by someone no matter how many have been sold. That is what I mean when I say it is impossible not to be invested. The question is who holds the shares and at what price."

I thought I had read that BP hadn't actually sold their shares as yet and that they might just have to write them off. Not sure about the mechanics of that if nobody wants to buy them, other than Rosneft (or even Putin) agreeing to take them off BP's hands for zilch, creating a $14bn loss (the carrying value apparently) for BP. Maybe they would have to gift the shares to Rosneft or whoever to create the loss which would leave a bitter taste in many mouths.

Edit: an article in Citywire says the loss may be up to $25bn.
https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news ... +Afternoon

That's a very good point.

Just like when a country defaults on its debt. I don't think the bonds change hand (trying to form an analogy with GS's words), I guess they just vanish. Big losses for businesses, which will be reflected upon consumers/taxpayers.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#483859

Postby 88V8 » March 2nd, 2022, 4:50 pm

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Just like when a country defaults on its debt. I don't think the bonds change hand (trying to form an analogy with GS's words), I guess they just vanish.

I look at Evraz, but where's the bottom... and if Putin decides to interfere with the share structure, what's to stop him?
I see Abramovich is the largest shareholder, along with other oligarchish names.
Evraz have some $ denominated bonds. The 5.25% 2024 seems to be on offer at c60% which doesn't strike me as particularly attractive just now.

V8

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#485179

Postby GoSeigen » March 8th, 2022, 3:55 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Further technical breakdown in the S&P500 today. Target looks like 3500 area. VIX is subdued. Little sign of panic. VIX term structure inverted. Have added more straddles.

GS


Well two weeks have passed and not much has really changed! If investors were going to panic they haven't done so yet except in specific markets like Russia. Effects of sanctions are being digested and banks have been hit hard. I've bought back some bank shares where I'd previously taken profit and continued nibbling at Russian shares.

VIX has risen steadily which flatters my long options positions; given the trade seems to have been correct I have continued adding Sep S&P straddles as fast as I can afford. An uncomfortably large position is now becoming reckless. I'm uneasy because it all feels too simple, but this is a trade I'm taking with my head not my heart so hopefully the logic isn't too far wrong.


GS


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