When should we get greedy?

[BrummieDave]

I got greedy yesterday morning as the markets opened. It may not be the bottom, but having liquidated two thirds of my equities two weeks previously, I bought back in on average 16% lower. So whilst waiting may have given me a better reentry point, or dripping in over the next 12 months less risk, I took the decision based on not wishing to be out of the market for too long and having seen prices drop sufficiently since I sold for it to make a difference.

BTW I'm not in any way seeing my selling and repurchase as any kind of gain, just potentially less of a loss. Who knows what will happen.

[jackdaww]

I got greedy yesterday morning as the markets opened. It may not be the bottom, but having liquidated two thirds of my equities two weeks previously, I bought back in on average 16% lower. So whilst waiting may have given me a better reentry point, or dripping in over the next 12 months less risk, I took the decision based on not wishing to be out of the market for too long and having seen prices drop sufficiently since I sold for it to make a difference.

BTW I'm not in any way seeing my selling and repurchase as any kind of gain, just potentially less of a loss. Who knows what will happen.

==========================

ive done much the same.

as long as markets recover in the next few years i would count it as a gain.

[TUK020]

the markets may yet plumb new depths.

one example:
The 3 leading contenders for the next US president are all into their 70s.
There is a small, but not insignificant, chance that none would make it until November.
That might set the cat amongst the market pigeons

[redsturgeon]

the markets may yet plumb new depths.

one example:
The 3 leading contenders for the next US president are all into their 70s.
There is a small, but not insignificant, chance that none would make it until November.
That might set the cat amongst the market pigeons

I think I would see that as a positive for the US!

John

[scrumpyjack]

They all spew out so much hot air, they won't need ventilators.

[colin]

Don't know if it means much but the dial on this thing clicked up from 3 to 5 today.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

[Jam2Day]

Two things make me wary. The momentum down is still strong and key quality companies are still relatively expensive if one considers the issues in play and a recession beckoning. The market dynamics just do not look right for a bounce, Fed or not. If they do pull a rabbit out of the hat it will amount to little more than an old familiar party trick. The fundamental concerns are simply mounting up. If we do see a move up I suspect it will be shorted at key technical levels, not an ideal playing field for investment decisions. I think patience is probably the name of this game as structural shifts gradually play out but the real question is whether enything will be learned from this. The virus is one thing but I think we can all agree it has been the trigger for a number of accidents waiting to happen.

[bluedonkey]

That damn dead cat just refuses to bounce.

[colin]

Up to 8 now
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
But what will such massive bond issuance mean for long term interest rates and relative equity valuations ?
High yield shares may well yield higher for longer.

[scrumpyjack]

Well he'l just print it (eg QE), no need to issue bonds

High yield shares will increasingly become no yield as virtually every company stops paying dividends.

[colin]

Well he'l just print it (eg QE), no need to issue bonds

High yield shares will increasingly become no yield as virtually every company stops paying dividends.

I was thinking longer term after the economy starts functioning again. Higher interest from bonds means all relative valuations fall.
I think Sunak said announcement in April about bond issuance.

[dealtn]

Well he'l just print it (eg QE), no need to issue bonds

High yield shares will increasingly become no yield as virtually every company stops paying dividends.

Doubt it, but that's for the future. It'll likely be a load of issuance, and QE combined and eventually tax.

[GoSeigen]

Well he'l just print it (eg QE), no need to issue bonds

High yield shares will increasingly become no yield as virtually every company stops paying dividends.

"He" doesn't have the option to print money. Unless the government abandons independence of the Bank of England. So actually he does have to issue bonds. And why would he not do so given the incredibly low rates on offer?


GS

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Two things make me wary. The momentum down is still strong and key quality companies are still relatively expensive if one considers the issues in play and a recession beckoning. The market dynamics just do not look right for a bounce, Fed or not. If they do pull a rabbit out of the hat it will amount to little more than an old familiar party trick. The fundamental concerns are simply mounting up. If we do see a move up I suspect it will be shorted at key technical levels, not an ideal playing field for investment decisions. I think patience is probably the name of this game as structural shifts gradually play out but the real question is whether enything will be learned from this. The virus is one thing but I think we can all agree it has been the trigger for a number of accidents waiting to happen.

Hi Jam2Day,

In the enboldened statement are you hinting at the previous over pricing of the US markets, in my arrogant opinion led by tax and rate cuts, engendered by a POTUS who views the "strong" economy which he presides as being his winning ticket, a permanent positive leading ramp of the market indexes as it's endorsement?

Matt

[XFool]

Another angle to consider?

Hedge fund tycoon Crispin Odey cashed in on the 2009 crash and now he's made £115m from this crisis - but he's betting on a bounceback

This is Money

[BitterLemon]

Interesting thread.

I note that the ftse 100 seems to have found support at just above 5000 despite an increased needs for isolation being rolled out by the government.

Curious to know for those who are buying back in, whether en mass or drip feeding, are you explicitly biasing any particular geographies?

Avoiding the US for a while until it corrects downward more seems wise to me. Though while UK has had a more sizable correction brexit hinders my medium term enthusiasm to buy it.

[JDot]

It seems strange why the ftse 100 is rallying on the news of total lockdown to include all but essential business's. The economy is dying and the market is rallying?
Why?

[Itsallaguess]

It seems strange why the FTSE 100 is rallying on the news of total lockdown to include all but essential business's.

The economy is dying and the market is rallying?

Markets are forward-looking, and these global lockdowns are likely to signal the beginning of the end of this phase of rapid infection rates, and could, if successful and correctly wound down at some future point in time, allow this virus pandemic to be managed without overwhelming local health services and thus causing unnecessarily large and widespread fatalities...

Italy has seen some encouraging numbers coming out following a similar two week period of lockdowns, so hopefully we will experience the same benefit once those lagging indicators start to filter through in a couple of weeks...

The economy isn't dying - it's ultimately protecting itself from a potentially worse outcome...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[colin]

It seems strange why the ftse 100 is rallying on the news of total lockdown to include all but essential business's. The economy is dying and the market is rallying?
Why?

Maybe expectations of world wide government stimulus, did not Macron call for co-ordinated action from governments? or maybe just short sellers buying back the shares they sold previously who knows is there ever just one reason for market moves?

[bluedonkey]

I think it's important to note that today's rally (24 March) is puny compared to recent falls. At present, I'm discounting it as not predictive of a prolonged upturn.