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When should we get greedy?

Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started
77ss
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#287911

Postby 77ss » March 1st, 2020, 6:24 pm

PinkDalek wrote:.....
This being a board aimed primarily at beginners....


Good point.

For a beginner, the answer has to be never. Be greedy and lose your shirt.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#287914

Postby Clariman » March 1st, 2020, 6:31 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Clariman wrote:I have not yet made use of the 2019/20 ISA allowance so would probably have moved some cash to ISA Index Trackers. I was wondering whether now would be a good (or bad) time to do so?

C

You can pay cash into your ISA without buying anything immediately in most cases. If your ISA provider does not allow you to be in cash, use one that does.

TJH

If you pay cash into an ISA provider without buying into any funds, do they pay interest on the cash .... or does it sit there earning nothing until you buy into a fund? I am with Hargreaves Lansdown and can't see anything about paying anything on cash invested.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#287916

Postby SheikYaManii » March 1st, 2020, 6:36 pm

SoBo65 wrote:
CrackAddick wrote:
colin wrote:When should we get greedy?
Personally I avoid having to make such market timing decisions by holding some lower volatility asset classes , as markets fall I just increase my overall percentage in equities, when they rise some money goes back into lower volatility assets. Roughly speaking I expect to be 100% in equities after they have fallen 30% from a previous high, so basically I just follow the market down and keep buying till I am 100% in risky equities. I should have developed a precise way of doing this by now but I haven't.


In ageing bull markets I find myself doing something similar.

When everywhere is seeming expensive, I find CGT (Capital Gearing Trust) a good place to park spare cash. I will obviously miss out on some upside, but am normally well protected on the way down. Then when the time is right I sell chunks of CGT to invest back into spicier shares. Not knowing where the bottom is, like you, I take nibbles on the way down.


I plan on doing the same, have had 40% of my portfolio in CGT and PNL for last year or so and 15% in cash ready for opportunities like this, but plan on going slowly though...

CGT has been very busy for a few years issuing new shares to control their premium to NAV, I see that they slipped to a small discount on Friday and it will be interesting to see if they buy back shares. Perhaps that's why they seem to hold more mainstream and liquid investments like etfs these days?

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#287927

Postby ReformedCharacter » March 1st, 2020, 8:22 pm

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:If the trigger to the current pricing structure is coronavirus I'd suggest this news may push prices down again.

Coronavirus: Twelve more cases confirmed in England
The government has said no tactics will be "off the table" as part of its plan to contain the virus in the UK.

AiYn'U

I'd be surprised if it didn't. I'm usually happy to buy shares on the cheap but IMHO there's too much risk and too many unknowns to persuade me to do anything but enjoy the weather :)

RC

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#287939

Postby andyalan10 » March 1st, 2020, 9:59 pm

monabri wrote:Looks like supply chains might be recovering.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... 19-backlog


I think I might have to disagree with that intepretation. The bulk of the article is saying that the port has 33% of the container drivers back now, and is handling 20% of the previous volumes, so there is no delay in handling cargoes. So cargoes are perhaps down around 70-80%.

I'm wondering at what point the debate will start about whether the economic impact of the containtment measures is so severe that they should be drastically scaled back.

As for when to get greedy, a week ago I had about 10% in cash, over and above the cash for near term living expenses. That's down to about 3% now after buying Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Once I get to being fully invested I will consider moving some money from things like bonds and utilities into racier stocks.

Andy

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#287958

Postby jackdaww » March 2nd, 2020, 7:56 am

PinkDalek wrote:
jackdaww wrote:i also bought quite a lot today


This being a board aimed primarily at beginners, it may help if you expand on how you buy on a Sunday, when markets are closed.


============================

my mistake , dont know why that happened , i usually avoid todays and tomorrows.

i meant friday ( i think) .

:D

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288065

Postby PinkDalek » March 2nd, 2020, 5:05 pm

jackdaww wrote:i meant friday ( i think) .


Got it. I thought you’d put in a limit order purchase for this and that over the weekend.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288071

Postby Alaric » March 2nd, 2020, 5:38 pm

Clariman wrote:If you pay cash into an ISA provider without buying into any funds, do they pay interest on the cash .... or does it sit there earning nothing until you buy into a fund?


Nothing or next to nothing is the norm on interest. The point is to use the £ 20,000 2019-20 allowance before it expires on 5th April 2020.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288148

Postby GoSeigen » March 3rd, 2020, 6:44 am

It's looking to me like there may be another leg down. Looking at options, VIX is going ballistic: I've been buying Sep straddles on the way down and they are all in profit at all strikes this morning. Interesting situation.


GS

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288149

Postby swill453 » March 3rd, 2020, 7:26 am

GoSeigen wrote:It's looking to me like there may be another leg down. Looking at options, VIX is going ballistic: I've been buying Sep straddles on the way down and they are all in profit at all strikes this morning. Interesting situation.

I think I understood about 10% of that paragraph :-)

But it's ok, I don't think I want to know any more.

Scott.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288261

Postby monabri » March 3rd, 2020, 3:59 pm

It needs a dose of Ritalin...calm it down a bit!

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288294

Postby GoSeigen » March 3rd, 2020, 7:26 pm

swill453 wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:It's looking to me like there may be another leg down. Looking at options, VIX is going ballistic: I've been buying Sep straddles on the way down and they are all in profit at all strikes this morning. Interesting situation.

I think I understood about 10% of that paragraph :-)

But it's ok, I don't think I want to know any more.

Scott.


Here's the start of that move down (S&P futures down 3.5% in NY afternoon trading).

A straddle is an options trading strategy which profits from either a big move in the underlying share price or a rise in implied volatility. If straddles are in profit it implies that there is a heightened expectation in the market of an imminent big underlying share price move.

GS

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#288573

Postby LooseCannon101 » March 4th, 2020, 9:28 pm

I am not changing my equity buying plan in the slightest, and am certainly not going to sell. Who knows where the bottom will be?

Most people have too short a time frame and get spooked by volatility.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290069

Postby Clariman » March 12th, 2020, 10:36 am

Clariman wrote:The only equities I have are Index Tracker ISAs. My assets are currently split:

  • Property - 40% (excludes PPR)
  • Index Tracker ISAs - 16%
  • Cash - 44%
I have not yet made use of the 2019/20 ISA allowance so would probably have moved some cash to ISA Index Trackers. I was wondering whether now would be a good (or bad) time to do so?

C

Well I for one am glad I went for cash-ISAs for the timebeing, given where we are at now. However, my 2020/21 ISA allowance will be available in 3 weeks time. What then?!

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290076

Postby tikunetih » March 12th, 2020, 10:59 am

I oversee a number of family accounts. Most operate on autopilot + scheduled monthly purchases, but there's a new account with a lump sum to invest.

The lump was divided into four tranches, with a calendar schedule agreed to get it invested; the schedule will be followed unless in the meantime certain target index (S&P500) levels are reached due to further sharp falls, in which case the calendar schedule is accelerated. The first tranche was invested a couple of days ago. I'm hopeful that in the next few days we might reach the first index trigger level to accelerate the next purchase, and potentially the second even lower trigger level.

This account has a balanced risk remit, with an investment horizon of 15-35 years. The S&P500 is likely to open today at a level that's 23% lower than its all time high of 3393.5 just 4 weeks ago. While the circumstances of these falls are very unfortunate, for this account, the opportunity to deploy long-term money at very significantly lower prices is one that won't be missed.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290103

Postby JDot » March 12th, 2020, 12:00 pm

While the circumstances of these falls are very unfortunate, for this account, the opportunity to deploy long-term money at very significantly lower prices is one that won't be missed.


I must admit even though I'm new to investing in the stock market, I'm firmly in your camp of not letting a golden window of opportunity go to waste. The way I am playing this volatility is via IT's. Just waiting for my next paycheck to drop to get some more cash in.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290122

Postby bluedonkey » March 12th, 2020, 12:55 pm

I normally start buying too early in a falling market. I haven't started buying yet. My track record therefore would point to much more falls. I do normally see falling markets as bargain territory but I don't have that feeling yet. Totally subjective and anecdotal of course, so make of my comment what you will. Remember the 1970s.

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290147

Postby scottnsilky » March 12th, 2020, 1:42 pm

Clariman wrote:
Clariman wrote:The only equities I have are Index Tracker ISAs. My assets are currently split:

  • Property - 40% (excludes PPR)
  • Index Tracker ISAs - 16%
  • Cash - 44%
I have not yet made use of the 2019/20 ISA allowance so would probably have moved some cash to ISA Index Trackers. I was wondering whether now would be a good (or bad) time to do so?

C

Well I for one am glad I went for cash-ISAs for the timebeing, given where we are at now. However, my 2020/21 ISA allowance will be available in 3 weeks time. What then?!


I'm with HL, and I seem to remember, towards the end of the tax year you can buy 2 years worth of ISA, in one transaction.

dp

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290166

Postby JDot » March 12th, 2020, 2:50 pm

bluedonkey wrote:I normally start buying too early in a falling market. I haven't started buying yet. My track record therefore would point to much more falls. I do normally see falling markets as bargain territory but I don't have that feeling yet. Totally subjective and anecdotal of course, so make of my comment what you will. Remember the 1970s.


I think I have bought into this too early because I have ran out of money and as of today the market is down another 9.5% today alone! However, I am going to keep going and keep buying. In regard to the 1970s could you give more info?

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Re: When should we get greedy?

#290172

Postby bluedonkey » March 12th, 2020, 3:27 pm

JDot wrote:
bluedonkey wrote:I normally start buying too early in a falling market. I haven't started buying yet. My track record therefore would point to much more falls. I do normally see falling markets as bargain territory but I don't have that feeling yet. Totally subjective and anecdotal of course, so make of my comment what you will. Remember the 1970s.


I think I have bought into this too early because I have ran out of money and as of today the market is down another 9.5% today alone! However, I am going to keep going and keep buying. In regard to the 1970s could you give more info?

From Wikipedia (my bold):
In the 694 days between 11 January 1973 and 6 December 1974, the New York Stock Exchange's Dow Jones Industrial Average benchmark suffered the seventh-worst bear market in its history, losing over 45% of its value. 1972 had been a good year for the DJIA, with gains of 15% in the twelve months. 1973 had been expected to be even better, with Time magazine reporting just 3 days before the crash began that it was 'shaping up as a gilt-edged year'. In the two years from 1972 to 1974, the American economy slowed from 7.2% real GDP growth to −2.1% contraction, while inflation (by CPI) jumped from 3.4% in 1972 to 12.3% in 1974.

The effect was worse in the United Kingdom, particularly on the London Stock Exchange's FT 30, which lost 73% of its value during the crash.


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