When should we get greedy?

[JohnB]

Coronaviruses include the common cold, and we've not had much luck producing a vaccine for that.

[Chrysalis]

Coronaviruses include the common cold, and we've not had much luck producing a vaccine for that.

Nor do we tend to get lasting immunity...

[widowandorphan3]

Am in 2 minds on this. It could be the start of a bear market, in which case it's too early to buy. There is also a Bernie factor to now contend with in the US, in the same way there Corbyn factor plagued the UK market for much of '18 and '19. Personally I think it's unlikely Bernie would get voted in even if he got the Dem nod in a place like America, as long as the economy goes OK. And Trump will do his darndest to ensure that it does go OK, including leaning on Fed to cut rates and maybe even more tax cuts. But we may not know a real answer for sure until early November, which could be a real drag.

But always the chance of yet more bad virus news to panic people in the short term. I had to call Hargreaves Lan about something this AM, and they have the best call handling in the business - was on hold for ages, and I don't think it was people clamouring to buy shares... as usual, Joe Soap ignores the markets until they make the mainstream news, and gets in a tizzy. Having said that, I have the luxury of being only 48 and can afford a few cycles, with luck. As someone on CNBC said today - the lunchtime roundtable show was amusingly gatecrashed by Jim Cramer - "if you're 75 and hadn't noticed the share that equities are in your portfolio, maybe this was a wake up call."

I am dripping money into Lindsell Train Global because 1. It has underperformed recently 2. Is full of food and drink companies, which should be OK whatever happens 3. Has beaten down Asian stuff, which hopefully will bounce eventually when virus gets sorted. I have also opened a small position in McDonald's, which is about as recession-proof as it gets imho. I am tempted by Unilever - if and when that yields 4% (3.4% now) surely a great buy for income and LT cap growth. I am tempted to get more Fundsmith (c10% off this week), but I have too much of that already tbh.

I am not filling my boots but am keeping close watch.

WaO

[johnhemming]

I have a view which is that if I am not sure what to do then I tend to do a bit. As in if I am not sure whether or not to buy then I buy a bit. Similarly if I am not sure whether or not to sell I sell a bit. It may be that the transactional costs make that difficult, but it is always possible say to buy/sell one security.

Today's market was full of people selling the market (for whatever reason) rather than careful decision making about what shares are bad new and which are good news.

I don't know where Monday will go. However, the UK market has suffered for some time from Brexit uncertainty. I would be surprised to see the market go any substantially further down, but I am something like 40% cash anyway. I did buy a bit today.

[hiriskpaul]

Coronaviruses include the common cold, and we've not had much luck producing a vaccine for that.

The common cold is mainly caused by Rhinoviruses, although a significant amount are caused by Coronaviruses. There are no vaccines available for either. The flu is caused by influenza viruses and vaccines are available.

Even if/when a vaccine for COVID-19 was developed it would take a long time to ramp up production sufficiently to distribute the way we do with influenza vaccines. From what I have heard there is no chance of this happening ahead of next winter, but if they get lucky the following winter may be a possibility.

[hiriskpaul]

Back to the OP, the question as to when to get greedy is unanswerable, but it could be some way off. World trade was already slowing before this kicked off and it could easily be sufficient to tip us into a global recession. It really depends how much disruption to business is caused as we try to fight the virus.

I was just about to agree the charter of a yacht in Italy for June and pay the deposit, but I think we have decided to hold off for now. It is not fear of catching the virus itself that concerns me, that could happen anywhere. Instead it is concern over potential disruption. Will we be able to get flights, will we be prevented from taking the boat out, might we end up dumped in quarantine abroad for weeks, etc. The risk is very difficult to assess and my instincts are not to commit until I can assess the risks. Similar thoughts must be going through lots of people's minds. What is this going to do for airlines, hotels and restaurants in tourist spots, etc? The oil price has collapsed. How will oil companies profits be impacted? If a lot of people end up self quarantining, what will that do to productivity?

To many imponderables at present and impossible to get any reliable assessment on how it will play out, so I am sitting on my hands.

[77ss]

......It is not fear of catching the virus itself that concerns me, that could happen anywhere. Instead it is concern over potential disruption.....

Quite so. I had planned on a couple of foreign jaunts this year (Pakistan & Kazakhstan), but too many things could go wrong and they will still be there next year (I may not be of course!). I can see myself doing a lot of UK walking this year. No bad thing anyway - there are huge swathes of the country that I have never seen.

[colin]

When should we get greedy?
Personally I avoid having to make such market timing decisions by holding some lower volatility asset classes , as markets fall I just increase my overall percentage in equities, when they rise some money goes back into lower volatility assets. Roughly speaking I expect to be 100% in equities after they have fallen 30% from a previous high, so basically I just follow the market down and keep buying till I am 100% in risky equities. I should have developed a precise way of doing this by now but I haven't.

[Jam2Day]

My own view is that the 'plunge protection' teams around the world are and will do their thing. We saw an attempted rally on Wednesday but the market fell through support. However, there was a timely rally after hours on Friday with a closing signal setting up for Monday that even the most challenged chartist would struggle to miss. If we do see a substantial rally, I think the key test will be around 7000-7200. We are currently in a down channel and if it fails, I am happy to 'sit on my hands' for somewhere in the region of 6200.

[CrackAddick]

When should we get greedy?
Personally I avoid having to make such market timing decisions by holding some lower volatility asset classes , as markets fall I just increase my overall percentage in equities, when they rise some money goes back into lower volatility assets. Roughly speaking I expect to be 100% in equities after they have fallen 30% from a previous high, so basically I just follow the market down and keep buying till I am 100% in risky equities. I should have developed a precise way of doing this by now but I haven't.

In ageing bull markets I find myself doing something similar.

When everywhere is seeming expensive, I find CGT (Capital Gearing Trust) a good place to park spare cash. I will obviously miss out on some upside, but am normally well protected on the way down. Then when the time is right I sell chunks of CGT to invest back into spicier shares. Not knowing where the bottom is, like you, I take nibbles on the way down.

[SoBo65]

When should we get greedy?
Personally I avoid having to make such market timing decisions by holding some lower volatility asset classes , as markets fall I just increase my overall percentage in equities, when they rise some money goes back into lower volatility assets. Roughly speaking I expect to be 100% in equities after they have fallen 30% from a previous high, so basically I just follow the market down and keep buying till I am 100% in risky equities. I should have developed a precise way of doing this by now but I haven't.

In ageing bull markets I find myself doing something similar.

When everywhere is seeming expensive, I find CGT (Capital Gearing Trust) a good place to park spare cash. I will obviously miss out on some upside, but am normally well protected on the way down. Then when the time is right I sell chunks of CGT to invest back into spicier shares. Not knowing where the bottom is, like you, I take nibbles on the way down.

I plan on doing the same, have had 40% of my portfolio in CGT and PNL for last year or so and 15% in cash ready for opportunities like this, but plan on going slowly though...

[fca2019]

I am thinking not at the turning point yet, as still talk of war rooms and battle plans. The media cannot continue this indefinately, like brexit there will be fatigue with the negativity.

What we really need is warm weather, then the infections will evaporate, and the overboard panic will go.

[AsleepInYorkshire]

I am thinking not at the turning point yet, as still talk of war rooms and battle plans. The media cannot continue this indefinately, like brexit there will be fatigue with the negativity.

What we really need is warm weather, then the infections will evaporate, and the overboard panic will go.

I've been working through my own financial recovery after a long illness. The final part of which began this week when I made my first payment into my private pension for a significant period of time. With some luck that first little monthly investment will have purchased some cheap funds

On a slightly more serious note I think we could well be witnessing the start of a bear market. Germany is teetering on if not already in recession. We're not driving up a much better road and Italy looks as if it will strike the proverbial recession gong soon.

I suspect if we took the time to review some of the more notable world leading economies they too are bumping along the bottom. I am not convinced we're prepared for what may happen in a recession. But, and I have no reasonable facts to support the thought, we could be facing something a whole lot worse than a recession. Stagnation.

I think the coronavirus may not be the cause of a downturn. It may turn out to be an event too far for the worlds stock markets which it appears are becoming more nervous. Sentiment may just turn negative and the bulls may have had their run. I'm not convinced the markets will recover quickly.

Part of my financial plan was to ensure I had the equivalent of six months net pay in cash in my current account. I am about 60% of the way there. Each month saved actually allows me to cope with 3 months of no income. Possible evidence that we are indeed heading towards rough waters

AiYn'U

[jackdaww]

I am thinking not at the turning point yet, as still talk of war rooms and battle plans. The media cannot continue this indefinately, like brexit there will be fatigue with the negativity.

What we really need is warm weather, then the infections will evaporate, and the overboard panic will go.

======================

a vaccine announcement will stop this in its tracks , but the stocks downturn may be past its tipping point .

[jackdaww]

I have a view which is that if I am not sure what to do then I tend to do a bit. As in if I am not sure whether or not to buy then I buy a bit. Similarly if I am not sure whether or not to sell I sell a bit. It may be that the transactional costs make that difficult, but it is always possible say to buy/sell one security.

Today's market was full of people selling the market (for whatever reason) rather than careful decision making about what shares are bad new and which are good news.

I don't know where Monday will go. However, the UK market has suffered for some time from Brexit uncertainty. I would be surprised to see the market go any substantially further down, but I am something like 40% cash anyway. I did buy a bit today.

============================

i also bought quite a lot today , having sold quite a lot on monday -- a very rare bit of good timing .

[PinkDalek]

i also bought quite a lot today

This being a board aimed primarily at beginners, it may help if you expand on how you buy on a Sunday, when markets are closed.

[Clariman]

The only equities I have are Index Tracker ISAs. My assets are currently split:

• Property - 40% (excludes PPR)
• Index Tracker ISAs - 16%
• Cash - 44%

I have not yet made use of the 2019/20 ISA allowance so would probably have moved some cash to ISA Index Trackers. I was wondering whether now would be a good (or bad) time to do so?

C

[Itsallaguess]

I have not yet made use of the 2019/20 ISA allowance so would probably have moved some cash to ISA Index Trackers.

I was wondering whether now would be a good (or bad) time to do so?

Well if you literally mean that you've not made use of the 2019/2020 ISA allowance at all, then I think you should consider that a completely separate issue to the secondary investment one....

If you've got cash that you intend to invest at some point, even if it's not now, then you should use your 2019/2020 ISA allowance before the opportunity passes to do so...

I won't give a recommendation regarding the investment part of your question, other than to suggest to go slowly with any decision that you might make, but don't waste the opportunity to get use out of the ISA allowances themselves whilst they are available to you - and you've got about 5 weeks left for the 2019/2020 ISA allowance period...

It can then stay in cash within your 2019/2020 Shares ISA whilst you carefully consider the second part of your question...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

[AsleepInYorkshire]

If the trigger to the current pricing structure is coronavirus I'd suggest this news may push prices down again.

Coronavirus: Twelve more cases confirmed in England
The government has said no tactics will be "off the table" as part of its plan to contain the virus in the UK.

AiYn'U

[tjh290633]

I have not yet made use of the 2019/20 ISA allowance so would probably have moved some cash to ISA Index Trackers. I was wondering whether now would be a good (or bad) time to do so?

C

You can pay cash into your ISA without buying anything immediately in most cases. If your ISA provider does not allow you to be in cash, use one that does.

TJH