Guessing the bottom

[bluedonkey]

A good reminder why it's usually a good idea to shift out of equities as one nears retirement. If you're 90% in equities a year before retirement and a COVID-19 event comes along.. it could ruin your day
I am (was) overweight in equities as a 54 year old, going by the old '100 minus your age' in equities rule. I think I was about 60%-65% equities, but my portfolio has been involuntarily re-balanced recently

A year before? Three years in my case ...

[AleisterCrowley]

You'll be fine...

[kempiejon]

A good reminder why it's usually a good idea to shift out of equities as one nears retirement. If you're 90% in equities a year before retirement and a COVID-19 event comes along.. it could ruin your day
I am (was) overweight in equities as a 54 year old, going by the old '100 minus your age' in equities rule. I think I was about 60%-65% equities, but my portfolio has been involuntarily re-balanced recently

That does depend how long you'll be retired, many of us working today aiming for earlier that government funded retirement could work for 30 years and be retired as long. What's the asset class that isn't equities you'd suggest? My plan is to be mostly equities and 3/4 years of spending in cash the rest equities, not a %age and watching out for inflation. These next few years will be an excellent test if that works for this bump in the road, but I'm not so sure about the next one.

[AleisterCrowley]

Well yes - of course it depends on individual circumstances.
A defined benefit pension is like owning a perpetual bond with a high credit rating and (possibly) index linked coupons
How much is that 'worth' when added to the equity/bond split calculation?
I personally have avoided Gilts - got my cash in low risk NSANDI IL bonds, Premium Bonds, and savings accounts; and the medium risk tier in P2P (Ratesetter)

[tjh290633]

I'm still 100% in equities, apart from 2 cash piggy banks.

Perhaps at 86 it's too late to change my ways. I fear that the alternative is even worse.

TJH

[Wuffle]

If you stay at work as long as mentally and physically possible it has the fortuitous benefit of raising the efficiency of the 'machine' and hence returns, that you don't then need.
Oh the irony.
So retire early by all means (of course you are special).

4444

W.

[JDot]

Wisdom of the crowd latest call for FTSE 100 bottom
Shout out to:
CryptoPlankton 4267
Aleister Crowley 4219
London wayfarer 4009 (plus or minus 2 pence)
flyer61 3869
PinkDalek 4200
Bobwood 4993
BT63 4200
bluedonnkey 4180
Wuffle 4444

Plus previous
4700
3450
4800
3432
5000
4700
3789

68252/16
Wisdom of the crowd say FTSE 100 to bottom @ 4266 (rounded value) from 4265.75

[BT63]

Although I previously suggested 4200 (but mentioned that I was already accumulating via monthly contributions to index funds) I think the enormous bounce in the markets in the last several trading sessions could well be the first stage of the bottoming process.

[bluedonkey]

Although I previously suggested 4200 (but mentioned that I was already accumulating via monthly contributions to index funds) I think the enormous bounce in the markets in the last several trading sessions could well be the first stage of the bottoming process.

That's what "they" want you to think. Ha ha ha. They suck you back in, then WHAM! Down she goes.
(Tongue somewhat in cheek)

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Wisdom of the crowd latest call for FTSE 100 bottom
Shout out to:
CryptoPlankton 4267
Aleister Crowley 4219
London wayfarer 4009 (plus or minus 2 pence)
flyer61 3869
PinkDalek 4200
Bobwood 4993
BT63 4200
bluedonnkey 4180
Wuffle 4444

Plus previous
4700
3450
4800
3432
5000
4700
3789

68252/16
Wisdom of the crowd say FTSE 100 to bottom @ 4266 (rounded value) from 4265.75

So are you buying JDot? Or waiting for this mysterious bottom to show itself to you?

Matt (a.k.a. Nostradamus)

[PinkDalek]

Wisdom of the crowd latest call for FTSE 100 bottom
Shout out to: ...

I can't help but say I absolutely hate that terminology (and noise of all sorts) but that's just me, so Carry on Regardless.

I made no predictions btw.

My comment was Isn’t the answer 42(00)?. Maybe I should have followed it with a smiley but some people absolutely hate them.

[BT63]

Although I previously suggested 4200 (but mentioned that I was already accumulating via monthly contributions to index funds) I think the enormous bounce in the markets in the last several trading sessions could well be the first stage of the bottoming process.

That's what "they" want you to think. Ha ha ha. They suck you back in, then WHAM! Down she goes.
(Tongue somewhat in cheek)

No emotion on my part.

No lump sums, either.

My buying dates and quantities are pre-set for several different dates per month.
At the current rate I'm buying, the cash reserve will run out in about a year to a year and a half (depending on what surplus income is received from existing investments or addition of any sales proceeds from other asset classes).

My plan is simple:
Around 6000 I'll slightly reduce my monthly buying.
Around 6500 I'll greatly reduce the monthly buying.

Around the recent FTSE = 5500 the savings would take about a year and a half to plough in.

Around 5000 I'll slightly increase the monthly buying.
Around 4500 I'll moderately increase the monthly buying.
Around 4000 I'll greatly increase the monthly buying.

[JDot]

Wisdom of the crowd latest call for FTSE 100 bottom
Shout out to:
CryptoPlankton 4267
Aleister Crowley 4219
London wayfarer 4009 (plus or minus 2 pence)
flyer61 3869
PinkDalek 4200
Bobwood 4993
BT63 4200
bluedonnkey 4180
Wuffle 4444

Plus previous
4700
3450
4800
3432
5000
4700
3789

68252/16
Wisdom of the crowd say FTSE 100 to bottom @ 4266 (rounded value) from 4265.75

So are you buying JDot? Or waiting for this mysterious bottom to show itself to you?

Matt (a.k.a. Nostradamus)

I'm waiting till we are near the crowd guess plus or minus 200 points.

Judging by today's FTSE 100 price 5704, we still have some way to go so my current thinking is why not build up a cash position with a view of gaining a greater margin of safety when prices do actually converge near somewhere near where people on here have guessed.

[JDot]

Wisdom of the crowd latest call for FTSE 100 bottom
Shout out to: ...

I can't help but say I absolutely hate that terminology (and noise of all sorts) but that's just me, so Carry on Regardless.

I made no predictions btw.

My comment was Isn’t the answer 42(00)?. Maybe I should have followed it with a smiley but some people absolutely hate them.

Can you think of something better?

I may consider changing.

[JDot]

Are there any mathematicians here who can offer help or improvements to the data?

[JDot]

Updated value based on a previous entry by error

median 4219

mode 4700

mean 4270 (based on 15 entries as opposed to 16 previous)

combo mean 4396 (combined arithmetic mean of median, mode and mean values)

[Bobwood]

But unless it drops by more than 12% from tonight’s close, there is a clear winner.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Wisdom of the crowd latest call for FTSE 100 bottom
Shout out to:
CryptoPlankton 4267
Aleister Crowley 4219
London wayfarer 4009 (plus or minus 2 pence)
flyer61 3869
PinkDalek 4200
Bobwood 4993
BT63 4200
bluedonnkey 4180
Wuffle 4444

Plus previous
4700
3450
4800
3432
5000
4700
3789

68252/16
Wisdom of the crowd say FTSE 100 to bottom @ 4266 (rounded value) from 4265.75

So are you buying JDot? Or waiting for this mysterious bottom to show itself to you?

Matt (a.k.a. Nostradamus)

I'm waiting till we are near the crowd guess plus or minus 200 points.

Judging by today's FTSE 100 price 5704, we still have some way to go so my current thinking is why not build up a cash position with a view of gaining a greater margin of safety when prices do actually converge near somewhere near where people on here have guessed.

I won't bother personally. Trying to buy at the bottom is a futile as trying to sell at the top.

All I'm doing is thinking "do I like this Share?", "do I see upside, regardless of risk of some further downside?", If so, I just buy the share. And that's what I'm still doing. Funds permitting. For me the key thing, is not to spend all my money at once, and not to overexpose myself on one particular share/sector.

IMHO this "guess the bottom" thread is a fun idea, but not one I'm really taking seriously.

Matt